According to Jim Duquette, the right-hander is close to signing a deal with St. Louis.  Oswalt posted a 3.44 FIP and garnered 2.5 wins above replacement last season in 23 starts with the Phillies.

This accordingly narrows the Mariners’ options on the pitching side of the free agent market.  With Jeff Francis off the market, we can expect the M’s to either ink Edwin Jackson to a multi-year deal or to stand pat with their current crop of starters.  At this point, though, they’re probably going to do nothing.  With two hotshot young lefties on the fast track to the majors, it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense for this team to block a rotation spot for the next four years.  The organization clearly believes that Danny Hultzen and James Paxton can be successful major league pitchers, so the team’s current set of priorities dictate that the M’s will probably target a third baseman rather than a pitcher.

Edit: Sources also indicate that if the deal with St. Louis falls through, Oswalt could be headed for Texas.

The deal, according to sources, is worth 214 million dollars over 9 years.

I would not have been comfortable with the Mariners giving Fielder a similar deal.  Fielder is guaranteed ~23 million per season until 2020, at which point he’ll be 37 years old.  There’s a chance that Prince craters after the first few years of the deal, and considering his weight and his father’s career arc, that probability is a lot greater than Tigers fans might like.

Since the M’s have not signed Fielder, they still have ~16 million dollars to add to the 2012 payroll.  I would guess that the team pursues a starting pitcher to patch the hole created by Pineda’s departure from the rotation.  If Danny Hultzen and James Paxton are ready for the majors sooner than the Mariners expect, the M’s can always jettison Jason Vargas or Kevin Millwood.

In any case, not signing Fielder doesn’t create any problems for the M’s.  If anything, the M’s just avoided a huge problem.

Here’s the quote:

This confirms what I theorized last week.  Prince Fielder will probably be a Washington National in 2012, and he probably won’t be a Texas Ranger.  I’m happy to hear this.

Rosenthal says nothing about the M’s, though.  The intrigue continues.

According to this article, the M’s have added Kevin Millwood.  Here’s what I said about Kevin Millwood several weeks ago:

Millwood is 37 years old and right-handed.  He’s been a solid pitcher over the course of his career, hitting 3.3 WAR as recently as 2008 (which at this point isn’t very recent at all), and he pitched well for the Rockies in 9 starts last season.  Millwood’s 6.0 K/9, 1.3 BB/9, and 42.2 groundball percentage last year are nothing to scoff at.  The Mariners could certainly do worse, as they’re only looking for someone to hold Danny Hultzen’s rotation spot until he’s ready for the bigs.  And if Millwood pitches like he did last season, you won’t see me complaining.

If this is true, and the Mariners have actually signed Millwood, then I’ll be mildly surprised if they sign Edwin Jackson as well.  Roy Oswalt, however, remains a distinct possibility, as he’s likely to accept a one-year deal in the hopes of being dealt to a contending team at the trade deadline.

The market for Prince Fielder has been weird. Teams haven’t showered Fielder with gifts and ridiculous contract offers, which is probably a sign that the few remaining organizations who were behind the curve on player valuation finally get it. Not only that, but the pool of suitors for the 27-year-old has been smaller than anyone expected.

The vast majority of teams have an issue that precludes them from seriously chasing after Fielder. The Mets’ team ownership is downsizing payroll. The Dodgers seem reticent to guarantee big money to anyone this offseason, which is not surprising considering their unfortunate management situation. The Rays got Carlos Pena, the Reds have Joey Votto, and so on and so forth.  In my mind, there are only six teams that have a legitimate shot to sign Prince. Continue reading »

Inspired by the signing of Oliver Perez but regretted just a few minutes into the writing process.  I wonder if the Mariners feel the same way about Oli.

NRI = non-roster invitee.

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Matt Fox, Jarrett Grube and Jeff Marquez, RHSPs – Marquez is probably a little better than the other two, but these guys are basically dime a dozen right-handed starters who do what they can to put the ball in the strikezone while hoping the defense holds up their end of the bargain.  A long relief/swingman role might be the best case scenario for the trio, though middle relief and, with a ton of luck, the No. 5 spot in the rotation could be within the realm of possibility.  These types of pitchers are plenty useful when things are going well for them.   Think David Pauley, Chris Jakubauskas, etc.

Steve Garrison, LHSP –  Garrison, a former top 10 prospect in the San Diego Padres organization, throws strikes and mixes his pitches but lacks the stuff to neutralize advanced hitters on a regular basis.  He’s had trouble getting AA and AAA hitters out over the past two seasons and probably doesn’t have much hope for making the big league team.  Garrison figures to be in the emergency starter mix with Tacoma.  A new Chris Seddon, let’s say.

Oliver Perez, LHSP – Perez you know from one good season with the Pirates, one OK season with the Mets, one Sandy Koufax comparison from Scott Boras, one incredibly ill-fated $36 million contract from the Mets, and countless meltdowns.  I’ve got to think the Mariners will try him primarily as a reliever. (Edit: confirmed.)  Maybe they’ll catch lightning in a bottle and wind up with a shutdown second lefty to join George Sherrill, but I don’t really like his chances much more than the other lefties competing for a ‘pen job.  As a starter… blech.  Let’s cross that bridge if we come to it.

Josh Kinney and Scott Patterson, RHRPs - A pair of 32 year old journeyman relievers who got their starts in independent ball and have had long track records of minor league success out of the bullpen.  Both have high strikeout rates and reasonable walk rates, but neither have gotten much of a shot in The Show.  Kinney had some success in his 17.2 big league innings with the White Sox last season, striking out 20 against 7 walks, although he got knocked around a bit after throwing 3 shutout innings and 6 strikeouts in his debut.  The duo will compete for middle relief jobs but, lacking great stuff, will most likely get most of their work with Tacoma.  Continue reading »

The Mariners avoided salary arbitration with three pitchers yesterday by offering them each one-year deals.  Vargas (2.4 WAR, 4.09 FIP, and 5.87 K/9) will make 4.85 million in 2012; he’ll likely slot in as the Mariners’ second or third starter.  Brandon League (1.4 WAR, 2.78 FIP, and 6.60 K/9) will make 5 million; the closer might become an expendable trade chip at the trade deadline if Tom Wilhelmson continues to impress.  Shawn Kelley (who pitched in only 10 games last year) will make 0.6 million.

I don’t have much else to say about this, so here’s a picture of Carlos Peguero doing what he does best:

Bullet points?  Bullet points.

• A lot of people thought outfielder Seth Smith was on the M’s radar as a possible trade target, but he’s just been snatched up by the Oakland A’s in exchange for Guillermo Moscoso and Josh Outman.  (For the record, I think the A’s won this deal by a lot.) I’m not exactly crushed by this news, but I am slightly deflated. Smith can flat-out hit, and his defensive ability is no worse than average; I would have preferred him over Trayvon Robinson as the Mariners’ fourth outfielder.
• To make matters worse – and by worse I mean pretty much the same – Jamie Moyer has apparently been offered a minor-league contract by the Rockies. If Moyer accepts, it won’t really make a difference to the M’s.  It would be fun to watch Jamie Moyer pitch in Safeco as the M’s fifth starter, but considering the recent acquisition of Hector Noesi and how close Danny Hultzen is to the majors, signing Moyer doesn’t make any sense for the Mariners. I would be very surprised if the Mariners went after another back-end starter at this point.
• Buster Olney reported a couple of days ago that Edwin Jackson’s asking price has “come down significantly.”  Jackson initially wanted something like 15-16 million dollars a year over five seasons, which of course he was never going to get.   Continue reading »