Erik Bedard has “passed” his physical and agreed to a deal with the Seattle Mariners that guarantees him $1.5M with escalators that could take the deal up to $8.5M.  There is also a mutual option for 2011 at $8.5M, that could rise depending on 2010 performance.  Yusmeiro Petit, a November waiver claim, has been designated for assignment to make room for Bedard on the 40-man roster. [Larry Stone]

All we have to worry about is the $1.5M at this point.  Assuming the escalators are tied to games, innings pitched and roster time it’s hard to imagine Bedard will max out the contract.  But, if he does or gets close, you have to think he’ll be earning it.

The mutual option is just a formality.  In order for Bedard to return on that option, both he and the Mariners have to agree to exercise it, and that rarely happens.  If Bedard puts together a relatively healthy season he’ll probably be looking to try and secure a multi-year deal via free agency, thus declining when the Mariners accept.  If Bedard has setback after setback or simply doesn’t pitch up to or near his former ability, he’ll accept and Seattle will decline.  At that price a mutual agreement doesn’t seem impossible, but it’s certainly unlikely.

I’ve got to think that Petit will be claimed when he hits the waiver wire.  If so, that’s too bad, but not a big loss considering the dozen other similar arms in-house.  If he clears, cool.

I was interested to see how the roster situation would shake out, assuming the team would find a way to keep that roster spot available.  But, as Dave mentions, Bedard can’t be placed on the 60-day DL until the season starts, so he’ll be using up one of those 40-man roster spots until then.  Ryan Feierabend and Kanekoa Texeira are probably the prime candidates to be cut if another player is brought in.

Bedard!

We still don’t know if Erik Bedard will return to the Seattle Mariners next year, though it’s looking like he will as long as Seattle’s medical staff doesn’t find anything discouraging when they check out his shoulder.

Some fans don’t like the idea of bringing back Bedard, obviously.  A lot of this stems from the trade that brought him to Seattle.  A lot of the frustration caused by then-GM Bill Bavasi has turned into resentment for Bedard.  I understand how that could happen, but I think it’s a little ridiculous.  Bedard didn’t have anything to do with how much of the franchise’s future Bavasi traded away for a guy with a history of injuries and durability issues.  Bedard came in and did what he could, which was pitch brilliantly and until his arm was about to fall off.

I also understand how it is difficult to separate a potential re-signing from the trade.  After all, if Cliff Lee were to sign an extension with Seattle after the season, wouldn’t we see that deal as even more of a success?  But I would think that the change in management makes the differences clear.  If Bavasi was still around and he brought back Bedard under the same circumstances it would probably look like he was trying to recover a sunk cost.  It’s different with Zduriencik.  He knows that those prospects are a sunk cost, and it’s not like he cares about any moves made before his hiring anyway.  If Bedard is a Mariner in 2010, it’s because he’s a good fit for the team.

At $1.5M plus incentives, the dollar figure reported by Jim Street, Bedard is a smart pickup.  If you see him returning to his normal performance levels it’s a no brainer.

Of course, Bedard cannot be counted on to be the same guy that was worth almost as many wins above replacement in 83 innings last season as Jarrod Washburn was over the course of the entire season.  He cannot even be counted on to be a big league caliber starter at this point.  Recovering from surgery on a torn labrum is not like recovering from Tommy John surgery.  This has been a career-ender for a lot of guys.  Granted, the surgeries are becoming more and more successful, as noted in Larry Stone’s writeup on the subject, but we still don’t know what’s next for Bedard.

If Bedard experiences setback after setback, all the Mariners have to deal with is a bit of frustration and a relatively small salary.  If he can come back and pitch effectively, he could be a nice little boost for the club.  It’s simple, really.  Would you rather have Doug Fister (or whoever) from April through September, or would you rather have Fister from between April through June and Bedard from July through September?  Some will inexplicably pick the former for the stability, but they’re not thinking clearly.  As our buddy Jeff Clarke writes, Bedard was worth more last season (in terms of WAR) than Jason Vargas, Fister, Brandon Morrow and Ian Snell combined.  Granted, those negative WAR players make the argument easier, but the bottom line is that Bedard was worth 1.9 WAR while all of those guys were worth 0.3 WAR or less.  He goes on to note that “Bedard+jobshare was one of the top 25 starters in the AL.”  A nice way to put it in perspective.  Many will dismiss the idea of bringing Bedard back because it’ll be frustrating, but that simply isn’t a smart way to view the situation.

Some people aren’t fond of this development because they feel like signing Bedard stops Seattle from making a better move; that the opportunity cost of signing Bedard is Washburn or Aaron Harang or [insert pitching target here].  I doubt that, however.  Again, Bedard is no sure thing to give Seattle anything in 2010.  Seattle is not banking on Bedard, they’re gambling on him.  All of the other AL West teams have pitching gambles from Rich Harden to Ben Sheets to Scott Kazmir and Ervin Santana, and Seattle figures they may as well get their own lottery ticket.  If the money and resources are there to upgrade over the in-house back of the rotation guys, I doubt Bedard will stop them from making a move.

As far as Washburn goes, he is shit out of options.  As far as we can tell, he limited his options to three teams or retirement, the Milwaukee Brewers, Minnesota Twins and our Mariners.  The Brewers went another route, the Twins offered him a $5M contract and spent that money on Orlando Hudson when it went unaccepted, and Seattle has seemingly placed him on the backburner indefinitely.  If Washburn wants to play in 2010, he’ll have to take relative pennies from Seattle (unless Minnesota has more money than I think), in which case he’s no risk for Seattle and there is no reason not to bring him aboard. As far as the other potential trade targets, Seattle has other iffy spots in their rotation.  Snell didn’t show much promise last season and, while it’s easy to forget, Ryan Rowland-Smith missed much of the year trying to get himself right after an elbow injury.  If you’re worried about bringing in Bedard plus one other guy, don’t forget that those guys aren’t exactly reliable either.  I’m sure Seattle could find a way to get everyone in.  It would be a nice problem to have.

I love Erik Bedard.  He’s one of my favorite Mariners of the 2000s, without a doubt.  One of my favorite Mariners ever, really.  But it isn’t just my fandom that has me supporting this signing.  I find it hard to see such a deal in a negative light.  At very worst it’s a “why not?” or “it can’t hurt” deal, right?  If Bedard can’t get healthy, or can’t perform, or has any other problems, that’s too bad.  But if he can string together a handful of good starts he’ll be worth it.  If he can be a third ace for half the season and into the playoffs, even better.  I’m not counting on it, but there is no reason not to take that gamble.

Hat tip @AntsinIN

Ichiro!

MLB.com’s Jim Street writes that Erik Bedard could be close to re-signing with the Seattle Mariners on a deal that would be worth about $1.5M guaranteed with “a shipload of incentives.”

It’s hard not to justify a $1.5M contract to a pitcher of Bedard’s caliber, despite his injury history or complete lack of durability.  We’ll talk more about Bedard if he indeed re-signs with Seattle.

Addendum: I’ve been letting this marinate a bit, and I am have a hard time believing it.  Why would any team sign Bedard at this point in the offseason?  Furthermore, why would any team offer him guaranteed money at this point in the offseason?  Maybe it’s a good faith move by Seattle, but until we get further confirmation I’m having a hard time buying in.

Update (9:00 AM): MLB Trade Rumors tweets: “MLB.com’s Street clarified via email that source says an agreement with Ms/Bedard has been reached, but not done deal due to shoulder tests.”  Far from a done deal, then.

Update (1:45 PM): Bedard tells Street’s homeboy Larry LaRue that “no one’s made a concrete offer.”  Meanwhile, FOX’s Jon Paul Morosi tweets that Bedard is close to a deal with Seattle according to a source.

At this point, I’d guess a deal gets done as long as the Mariners are content with what they find in the physical examinations.

Update (Friday, 8:30 AM): Lookout Landing passes on a report that says deal is a go pending a physical.

It’s that time of year!

For the last two seasons we’ve had a couple fantasy baseball leagues affiliated with the site.  2008 was our first year, when we had a bizarre 16 team 10×9 H2H on Yahoo! commished by former BBT contributor Patrick, in which Grey from Razzball.com won.  Last year we filled two 18 team 7×7 leagues, one Roto and one H2H.  I took the gold in Roto, while our buddy Ian, who now writes at FakeTeams.com, won the H2H.

I’ve sent out a couple tweets gauging interest, and on Twitter response alone we could fill two deep leagues.  I almost fear what kind of turnout we might have in the end.

Because of that, I probably won’t be doing first come first serve this time around.  That’s how we filled the leagues last year, but we ended up with a bunch of people that were total duds.  This year, I’m going to pick and choose.  It’s not fair, but it’s my site.  “Grandma’s house, Grandma’s rules.”

That said, those who chime in early will get some pull when it comes to filling out the leagues.  So, everyone, let’s hear it.

Let me know if you’re interested, what type of league you’d like to be in (website, Roto or H2H, which stats to use, number of teams, etc etc etc), why I should include you and anything else that seems relevant and we’ll take it from there.

We’re very much playing this by ear at this point, so all suggestions are welcome.

As I’m sure you’ve heard by now, the Seattle Mariners have signed Ryan Garko.

Mariners DFA Gaby Hernandez

To make room for Garko, the Mariners designated for assignment right handed pitcher Gaby Hernandez.  Acquired in the Arthur Rhodes trade, Hernandez was once a hot prospect that has lost some velocity and the bite on his curveball the last couple of years.  He’s no longer a prospect, and unless something changes in his skillset, his upside is no more than the the 5th or 6th man in a bullpen (middle relief, swing man).  He’ll probably clear waivers, but if he doesn’t it wouldn’t be the end of the world.

The contract

Garko signs for a little over a half-million dollars, with bonuses based on plate appearances taking his potential earnings up to a little over a cool million.  He’ll probably land somewhere between $600-700K, barring an injury that turns him into a full-time player.

That is a steal of a deal, in case you’re wondering.

Role

“It’s pretty obvious I’m here to help against left-handed pitching, whether as a first baseman or DH, and be around to catch if the situation comes up,” Garko was quoted in this Larry Stone blog post.

Yes, it is pretty obvious.  Garko will steal some starts from Ken Griffey and Casey Kotchman, and will be one of the pinch hit options for Jack Wilson or Rob Johnson or whoever else.

Head over to Lookout Landing for more on the Kotchman/Garko platoon.

On to Garko the catcher.  Here’s another quote from that same Stone post:

“I caught all the way to Triple-A, and really would have kept doing it except Victor Martinez signed a five-year deal (with the Indians),” he said. “I felt it (switching positions) was my best path to the big leagues. It’s there. Jack and I talked about it. Just in terms of giving Don the opportunity to make moves in games, it’s important for us to have that third catcher. It just gives us more versatility and I think it can help the team.”

I’m trying not to pay any attention to this, and you probably should too.  Every team has an emergency catcher, and it’s usually someone who hasn’t caught for years and years, or in some cases never at all.  Mike Sweeney, Willie Bloomquist and Raul Ibanez are some of Seattle’s recent emergency catchers.  Chances are, Garko is no different.  Chances are, Garko will keep a catcher’s mitt in the back of his locker in case Rob Johnson’s surgically repaired wrist disengages and Josh Bard gets ejected when an umpire confuses Bard’s self-directed insults for an attack on his own mother, or any other bizarre combination of events that wipes out Seattle’s catching depth for the day (whoever those catchers might be; Johnson/Bard are my defaults for now).  Chances are, the most time behind the plate Garko sees with the Mariners will be early in Spring Training when the team needs extra catchers to handle the tons of pitchers that will be hanging around throwing bullpens.  It’s nice to think it gives Seattle some flexibility, but do you really see Garko, a guy that hasn’t played catcher regularly in half a decade, behind the plate, no matter who he might be catching?  Garko makes it sound like moving to first base was his decision, but he was a bad defensive catcher back when he moved to get around Victor Martinez (according to old Baseball America scouting reports).

So, Garko will play some first base, DH, maybe some left field in emergencies and will let his catcher’s mitt collect some dust.  But an emergency catcher is something that is required even if it’s not high on the checklist, so it’s nice to be able to cross off that minor role, I suppose.

11 man pitching staff

As mentioned in previous posts and across the blogosphere, bringing in another non-outfielder means Seattle probably goes with an 11 man pitching staff.  Manager Don Wakamatsu seems okay with this, based on these quotes from Doug Miller’s MLB.com article:

Since the team also has Ken Griffey Jr. as a part-time DH and occasional outfielder and will carry two catchers and an infield that consists of Garko, Kotchman, second baseman Jose Lopez, shortstop Jack Wilson, third baseman Chone Figgins and utility man Jack Hannahan (or Matt Tuiasosopo), there would only be room for 11 pitchers.

“That’s the way it slots out right now, but you just don’t know,” Wakamatsu said. “So many things can happen in Spring Training, and you’d always rather deal from a position of strength than one of weakness. As manager you can never have too many. It’s a good problem to have.

“Plus, with Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee as your No. 1 and No. 2 starters, you’d like to think there’s some benefit there and that maybe we’ll have that luxury at the top of the rotation to do that.”

So, unless something unforeseen happens between now and Opening Day, let’s assume Seattle will go with just six men in their bullpen.

Roster scenarios

First, let’s start off with the snenario I posted a couple days ago, when I inserted Garko as a hypothetical.

Lineup vs. RHPs:

C: Johnson/Bard
1B: Kotchman
2B: Lopez
3B: Figgins
SS: Wilson
LF: Bradley/Langerhans
CF: Gutierrez
RF: Suzuki
DH: Griffey/Bradley

Bench:

Hannahan (utility infielder)
Byrnes (utility outfielder, pinch runner)
Garko (first baseman, emergency outfielder)
Langerhans (utility outfielder)/Griffey (pinch hitter, emergency outfielder)
Johnson/Bard (catcher)

Lineup vs. LHPs:

C: Johnson/Bard
1B: Garko
2B: Lopez
3B: Figgins
SS: Wilson
LF: Byrnes
CF: Gutierrez
RF: Suzuki
DH: Milton Bradley

Bench:

Hannahan (utility infielder)
Langerhans (utility outfielder)
Kotchman (first baseman, pinch hitter)
Griffey (pinch hitter, emergency outfielder)
Johnson/Bard (catcher)

That is still my ideal scenario.  It’s hard to envision Garko getting much time at DH except for days when Bradley and Griffey will both be on the bench at the same time, which will happen from time to time to keep them fresh and healthy.  I can’t imagine Seattle going with any other basic bench structure as things stand now.  They could carry an extra infielder instead, and use Chone Figgins as the on-field 4th outfielder against lefties, but that would be far from ideal.

Emergency scenarios with the above setup

With the lineup against right handed pitching, the Mariners can lose any one player without being in too much trouble.  Wilson getting hurt would put the most pressure on the team, leaving Figgins or Hannahan to play the position.  But that’s fine for just one day or even two.  If Wilson misses some real time the Mariners have reinforcements in AAA.

The only combination of losing two players that would put Seattle in a serious bind would be if two non-1B infielders were hurt, which would leave Garko to play 3B, presumably.  Obviously, that’s not likely to ever happen, and given the likelihood I suppose Garko would be good enough in a pinch.

With the left handed lineup, the same deal applies for the most part.  Seattle could lose any one player for the day and get by, and could absorb a loss to any two players with the biggest strain coming if Garko had to play 3B.

An extra infielder would be nice, but what are the odds two non-1B infielders get hurt in the same game?  If that is the case, Seattle has bigger problems than having to rely on a guy like Garko to handle the hot corner.

In conclusion

I like the current setup.  Let’s bring on that last pitcher and get this season underway!

The M’s have reached an agreement with Ryan Garko on a 1 year, $550,000 deal. Garko, a right-handed 1st baseman, can make up to $1,075,000 if he reaches 600 plate appearances (he won’t.) Garko figures to help out against lefties at 1B and DH and be able spell Kotchman when needed.

Garko crushes lefties at a career .887 OPS clip. While Garko isn’t an impact bat playing every day, he comes surprisingly cheap and offers virtually no risk at that cost. Jon already broke down Garko and his potential impact here, here, and here.

Here are the details of his contract/playing time breakdown.

Garko would earn up to an additional $25,000 each for 325, 350 and 375 plate appearances this season. The former Cleveland Indians and San Francisco Giants player would get $50,000 apiece for 425, 450 and 475 plate appearances, and $100,000 each for 500, 550 and 600 plate appearances.

Update (Jon): Gaby Hernandez has been DFA’d to make room for Garko.

Last update: 11:20 pm, Sunday

As mentioned in the last post, Seattle Mariners Assistant GM Jeff Kingston has been speaking of the team’s intentions to bring in a right handed hitter for the bench as well as a pitcher the last couple of days at Mariners Fan Fest.

Saturday:

“We’re still looking at a couple more pieces here we  feel we’re pretty close on.  Still looking at another right handed bat, maybe help out at DH and first, and then add another pitcher.  Hopefully we’ll have some more of those items checked off our list here the next week.”

Sunday:

“We are still talking to some right handed bats that are out there on the market right now; we hope to land one here in the next week or so. I think our vision is someone who can help Ken Griffey in the DH spot, maybe spell Casey Kotchman at first base at times against left handed pitching; that’s where we see this player fitting in.  I’m not sure he’s going to be an impact type bat, but someone who can really help out against left handed pitching and give Grif and Kotchman days off at times. As far as the pitching, we are still trying to land a pitcher as well… we do anticipate landing a pitcher sometime in the next week.”

Some interesting stuff.  Two things I take from this with regards to the 1B/DH:

• “out there on the market right now” seems to imply free agents.  Obviously, there is the “trade market,” but I think it would have been worded differently if they were negotiating with other teams for said bat.
• Notice in both quotes that the focus seems to be on getting help for Griffey rather than Kotchman.  You could take this to mean that this bat isn’t necessarily a true first baseman, and also that Milton Bradley could see more time in the field that we’d all like (which is great for the batting lineup, but not for the defense and Bradley’s health).

Two guys jump to mind.  One is Ryan Garko, who I’ve brought up in previous posts, and the other is Jermaine Dye.

Garko is a not-terrible defensive first baseman who has some home run power to all fields, hits lefties well and is a pretty solid hitter overall.    His upside is limited, but I think he’s a known quantity and wouldn’t be much of a risk.

Dye is a little risky considering his age, but the guy still has some big time thunder in his bat (406 average home run distance last year) and mashes lefties (.894 OPS in 2009, .871 career).  He’s only played one game at first base in his big league career and a few more in the minors years ago, but he has stated this offseason that he is willing to play there if it helps him get a contract, and you’ve got to think he may be working out at first base this offseason if that is what he’s telling teams.  That second quote seems to describe Dye better than any available free agent– with the focus on DH rather than first base– and it’s no big surprise that there are some rumblings making their way across the interwebs that Dye is in Seattle for a physical.  I have no idea where this rumor first came from so I’m certainly skeptical, but it seems to match up with Kingston’s quotes.  Keep an eye on that (but please curb your enthusiasm until then).  Dye recently turned down an offer worth about $3.3M from the Chicago Cubs, according to reports.

More on how Dye would effect (handcuff?) the roster and what could be expected from him if he should sign.  Same with Garko or anyone else.

If you were at Fan Fest or watching the Q&A sessions online, you may have heard Assistant GM Jeff Kingston say the Mariners were still looking for a right handed hitter at 1B/DH.  This would presumably someone more reliable than Tommy Everidge, who they just DFA’d.

It wasn’t completely surprising, but if the Mariners were to bring in said player it would certainly shuffle things up.  It would likely mean dropping a middle reliever or an outfielder.

If the Mariners drop a reliever, there will always be a true outfielder on the bench, which is a major plus considering Eric Byrnes’ recent health history, Bradley’s health history and general volatility, and Franklin Gutierrez’ habit of crashing into walls.  A six man bullpen should be okay most of the time, but there would be days when the long reliever would have to pitch in more critical spots than we would like.

If the Mariners drop an outfielder, the team will not have an outfielder on the bench with some lineups, and would have to be willing to bump Chone Figgins, Ken Griffey or the 1B/DH guy to the outfield if someone got hurt.  Figgins can play out there, which would make such a scenario plausible considering that the Mariners have a gold glove caliber third baseman on the bench, but Don Wakamatsu may not prefer to move his starters around.  None of us want to see Griffey out there, even if they say he is a few pounds lighter and the knee is feeling good.  The new 1B/DH guy could play out there in a pinch in some scenarios (say, Ryan Garko), but some guys wouldn’t be able to make it work.

I would like to see the M’s drop a middle reliever and pick up a right handed 1B type that can hit lefties.  Let’s take a quick look at what the team could look like if they signed Ryan Garko (as an example; sub in whoever you like) and went with an 11 man pitching staff.  Let’s also assume that Ryan Langerhans makes the club over Michael Saunders (though I’m rooting for Saunders), Josh Bard makes the team over Adam Moore, and all players are healthy.

Rotation: Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Ian Snell, scrub or acquisition

The bullpen: David Aardsma, Brandon League, Mark Lowe, Sean White, Shawn Kelley, long reliever (one of half-dozen fringe arms the Mariners have on their roster).

Lineup vs. RHPs:

C: Johnson/Bard
1B: Kotchman
2B: Lopez
3B: Figgins
SS: Wilson
LF: Langerhans/Bradley
CF: Gutierrez
RF: Suzuki
DH: Bradley/Griffey

Bench:

Hannahan (utility infielder)
Byrnes (utility outfielder, pinch runner)
Garko (first baseman, emergency outfielder)
Griffey (pinch hitter, emergency outfielder)/Langerhans (utility outfielder)
Johnson/Bard (catcher)

Lineup vs. LHPs:

C: Johnson/Bard
1B: Garko
2B: Lopez
3B: Figgins
SS: Wilson
LF: Byrnes
CF: Gutierrez
RF: Suzuki
DH: Milton Bradley

Bench:

Hannahan (utility infielder)
Langerhans (utility outfielder)
Kotchman (first baseman, pinch hitter)
Griffey (pinch hitter, emergency outfielder)
Johnson/Bard (catcher)

I’d be pretty happy with that.

There is still plenty of time for another player to be brought in and things to shake up the depth chart, but here is how I would interpret the current left field setup with the signing of Eric Byrnes (scroll down for news post).

Eric Byrnes: He’s mashed lefties throughout his career and hit lefties pretty well even in his down years, and plays plus defense.  That combination makes him a good fit for Seattle, allowing them to pair him with a left handed outfielder in a platoon.  That he’s dirt cheap allows them to ditch him if his hamstring starts bothering him or if he’s showing his age, and GM Jack Zduriencik indicated in his initial announcement that Byrnes would have to earn his roster spot.  Byrnes has indicated that he has no qualms with being part of a platoon.

Ryan Langerhans: Perhaps the top candidate to platoon with Brynes, Langerhans is essentially the outfield version of Jack Hannahan.  He has a great glove (in all three positions), a decent approach at the plate, can hit a few home runs and swings and misses a lot from the left side of the plate.  Langerhans’ bat will keep him out of the lineup at times, leaving the door open for less desirable scenarios that we’ll get to shortly.  Langerhans is on a split contract, meaning he can be sent to the minors without the risk of losing him (as I understand it).

Michael Saunders: I’ve got to think that the Byrnes acquisition helps Saunders’ chances of making the Opening Day ballclub.  Before the signing, Seattle was looking at a playing the matchups rather than a strict platoon which would have given Saunders unpredictable at bats had he made the team.  With a strict platoon, Saunders can get regular playing time against right handed pitchers, and given Byrnes’ and Bradley’s respective injury histories he could get his fair share of at bats against lefties as well.  Obviously, he’d have to significantly out-hit Langerhans in Spring Training after his poor showing in September.

Milton Bradley and Ken Griffey: If Byrnes and Saunders make the team, you’ve got to think that it cuts into the time in the outfield Bradley sees and the number of at bats Griffey receives, both of which should be seen as good things.  If it’s Langerhans and Byrnes, manager Don Wakamatsu would be tempted to run Bradley out in the field instead of Langerhans to get another bat in the lineup (Griffey). Griffey is at his best when he’s well rested, and he’s an asset as a pinch hitter, so the more games he starts on the bench the better.

I can really get behind a Saunders/Byrnes platoon.  Let’s see if they’ll be given that opportunity or if a bigger fish will be brought in.  I can’t see Zduriencik letting this acquisition stop him from improving the club further if a deal falls in his lap.

Edit to add: In the comments Rob brings up the possibility of a Byrnes/Bradley outfield platoon, with Langerhans being a true extra outfielder.  That is a definitely possibility if Wak thinks Bradley can stay healthy in the outfield, and one that would give Griffey the bulk of the DH time against right handers, which wouldn’t necessarily be the worst thing in the world (but far from ideal, in my mind).