Extending Felix

by ~ January 16th, 2009 at 1:28 am

Prospect Insider: “Felix and his agent Alan Nero are more than open to a multiyear contract, and have been for two years.”

Assuming he continues to progress as expected, Felix Hernandez is due for a massive payday when he reaches free agency following the 2011 season at age 25.  How often do legitimate aces reach free agency at age 25?  I’ll give you a hint: uhh.. NEVER.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets the richest contract ever awarded to a right handed pitcher (in terms of total dollars).

Bill Bavasi made a big mistake failing to lock up Felix before his very solid 2008 campaign.  Hopefully Jack Zduriencik can still get it done now that Felix is eligible for salary arbitration for the first time.  It would be great if he could buy out his remaining arbitration years as well as his first few seasons of free agency (or, if we all had our way, forever).

Get it done, Z!

«
»

  • seasun62

    Pretty easy one here….no brainer.

  • SABR Matt

    offer him an escallating 7 year, 125 million dollar deal with performance bonuses and his own private jet if that’s what it takes…the Mariners are committting franchise suicide if they let this guy hit free agency.

  • ernier

    Agreed, M’s have to sign him long term. Otherwise he’d have to be traded at some point before his free agency because 2 draft picks in return is not nearly enough.

    Z will get it done.

  • http://bleedingblueandteal.com Dustin Shires

    Gotta agree with SABR Matt, fully. I’d buy him an island, or give him stock in Nintendo if that’s what it takes..

  • mashyuk

    I agree we need to resign him, but I don’t see where he has done anything as of yet to deserve #1 ACE starter money when all he has done thus far is show flashes. What has he done thus far to deserve Johan Santana money? He hasn’t come close to sniffing a Cy Young, he isn’t a stopper..yet like Roy Halladay. This is my first post so I am not trying to cause an argument. With how the market is now I would say he is a 13-15mil a year player.
    My biggest fear is that he is a Freddy Garcia wannabe

  • http://bleedingblueandteal.com Dustin Shires
  • Mr.Benton

    ^^^^ great link, with some good input. Felix has been on some bad team’s in his short ML career, imagine if he had been on winning teams. The M’s need to lock him into an extension for oh, 15 years @ 17m per season. lol

  • seasun62

    Great link, for those of you that are frustrated with his growing pains. Do yourself a favor; come to Spring Training and watch one of his bullpen sessions. You can get within about ten feet of him and see, first hand, just how nasty his stuff is. Then, pretend your the batter and you’ll be wondering how the baseball EVER comes in contact with the bat. You can compare him side by side with other pitchers and it’s like night and day. Barring injury, he should be an Ace soon.

  • http://bleedingblueandteal.com Jon Shields

    I know it’s all said with a hint of sarcasm, but everyone is getting a little crazy with the terms being tossed around. Pre-free agency players don’t get free agency figures.

    Contracts that guys like Zambrano and Santana got aren’t really comparable just yet, as those two signed the winter before they entered free agency.

    Peavy, heading into his first year of arby (like Felix), got just 4 years/$14.5M after posting a 2.66 ERA and 15 wins the season before.

    Yeah, he’ll almost certainly get more than Peavy, but he’s not getting $15M+ just yet.

  • SABR Matt

    My offer was an escallating offer that averaged 18 mil/year, but the first 4 years wouldn’t have been that much. It would have looked something like;

    5 mil
    8 mil
    12 mil
    16 mil
    29 mil
    22 mil
    22 mil

    With incentives and a signing bonus to push the potential value to 125 mil.

    BTW…for those of you saying he hasn’t been an ace yet…you’re not accounting for just how bad the Mariner defense has been behind him. Felix had the second highest FIP in all of baseball in 2007 and he was third in the AL in FIP in 2008. He’s BEEN an ace…he’s just pitching for some crappy teams.

  • http://bleedingblueandteal.com Jon Shields

    $29M?

    Wha…?

    Why?

  • SABR Matt

    That’s a typo…should say 20 million. Sorry…LOL

  • http://bleedingblueandteal.com Scott Weber

    screw FIP. it’s too basic. Felix is still flawed pitcher who allows too many baserunners, I don’t care what FIP says. FIP rewards pitchers like Carlos Silva and Paul Byrd no matter how hard they get hit because they just don’t walk many batters and keep the ball in the park.

    And Felix was 12th in the AL in FIP in 2008….?

  • http://bleedingblueandteal.com Jon Shields

    SABR Matt – I still think that’s too much. Not necessarily too much in that he won’t deserve it, but too much in that it shouldn’t take that much to secure him, especially if he would like to stay in Seattle.

    The deal you layed out is just huge.. no arbitration eligible right handed pitcher has ever gotten a contract with $20M+ seasons included. In fact, only one right handed pitcher has ever gotten paid $20M+ (Roger Clemens 2007). Peavy figures to be the next unless his $22M 2013 club option is bought out (which wouldn’t surprise me).

    If seven years is the deal, I would expect something closer to:

    2009: $4.5M
    2010: $7M
    2011: $9.5M
    (^still bigger than the deal Cole Hamels just got)
    2012: $11M
    2013: $13M
    2014: $15M
    2015: $15M
    2016 option: $20M

    That’s still huge (and unprecedented for a first year arbitration pitcher) but $50M less than yours. I could scale it down further and still feel comfortable calling it realistic.

    I think, for the most part, the big deals that include multiple $20M years are going be reserved for the established rare hard throwing lefties. Guaranteeing a RHP (no matter how much we love Felix) three $20M years four years down the road is just too risky.

  • SABR Matt

    I don’t see Felix as that risky.

    But I do see your point about Hamels’ deal setting the market.

  • http://bleedingblueandteal.com Dustin Shires

    Can anybody say Blank Check?

    Players of Felix’s caliber rarely come along. The talent is just overwhelming. Sign this dude, NOW..