Comments on: Extending Felix

By: Dustin Shires

Dustin Shires — Mon, 19 Jan 2009 10:04:50 +0000

Can anybody say Blank Check?

Players of Felix’s caliber rarely come along. The talent is just overwhelming. Sign this dude, NOW..

By: SABR Matt

SABR Matt — Sun, 18 Jan 2009 00:26:55 +0000

I don’t see Felix as that risky.

But I do see your point about Hamels’ deal setting the market.

By: Jon Shields

Jon Shields — Sat, 17 Jan 2009 19:05:39 +0000

SABR Matt – I still think that’s too much. Not necessarily too much in that he won’t deserve it, but too much in that it shouldn’t take that much to secure him, especially if he would like to stay in Seattle.

The deal you layed out is just huge.. no arbitration eligible right handed pitcher has ever gotten a contract with $20M+ seasons included. In fact, only one right handed pitcher has ever gotten paid $20M+ (Roger Clemens 2007). Peavy figures to be the next unless his $22M 2013 club option is bought out (which wouldn’t surprise me).

If seven years is the deal, I would expect something closer to:

2009: $4.5M
2010: $7M
2011: $9.5M
(^still bigger than the deal Cole Hamels just got)
2012: $11M
2013: $13M
2014: $15M
2015: $15M
2016 option: $20M

That’s still huge (and unprecedented for a first year arbitration pitcher) but $50M less than yours. I could scale it down further and still feel comfortable calling it realistic.

I think, for the most part, the big deals that include multiple $20M years are going be reserved for the established rare hard throwing lefties. Guaranteeing a RHP (no matter how much we love Felix) three $20M years four years down the road is just too risky.

By: Scott Weber

Scott Weber — Sat, 17 Jan 2009 17:55:47 +0000

screw FIP. it’s too basic. Felix is still flawed pitcher who allows too many baserunners, I don’t care what FIP says. FIP rewards pitchers like Carlos Silva and Paul Byrd no matter how hard they get hit because they just don’t walk many batters and keep the ball in the park.

And Felix was 12th in the AL in FIP in 2008….?

By: SABR Matt

SABR Matt — Sat, 17 Jan 2009 12:48:12 +0000

That’s a typo…should say 20 million. Sorry…LOL

By: Jon Shields

Jon Shields — Sat, 17 Jan 2009 11:30:44 +0000

$29M?

Wha…?

Why?

By: SABR Matt

SABR Matt — Sat, 17 Jan 2009 09:13:44 +0000

My offer was an escallating offer that averaged 18 mil/year, but the first 4 years wouldn’t have been that much. It would have looked something like;

5 mil
8 mil
12 mil
16 mil
29 mil
22 mil
22 mil

With incentives and a signing bonus to push the potential value to 125 mil.

BTW…for those of you saying he hasn’t been an ace yet…you’re not accounting for just how bad the Mariner defense has been behind him. Felix had the second highest FIP in all of baseball in 2007 and he was third in the AL in FIP in 2008. He’s BEEN an ace…he’s just pitching for some crappy teams.

By: Jon Shields

Jon Shields — Sat, 17 Jan 2009 00:12:12 +0000

I know it’s all said with a hint of sarcasm, but everyone is getting a little crazy with the terms being tossed around. Pre-free agency players don’t get free agency figures.

Contracts that guys like Zambrano and Santana got aren’t really comparable just yet, as those two signed the winter before they entered free agency.

Peavy, heading into his first year of arby (like Felix), got just 4 years/$14.5M after posting a 2.66 ERA and 15 wins the season before.

Yeah, he’ll almost certainly get more than Peavy, but he’s not getting $15M+ just yet.

By: seasun62

seasun62 — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 22:36:23 +0000

Great link, for those of you that are frustrated with his growing pains. Do yourself a favor; come to Spring Training and watch one of his bullpen sessions. You can get within about ten feet of him and see, first hand, just how nasty his stuff is. Then, pretend your the batter and you’ll be wondering how the baseball EVER comes in contact with the bat. You can compare him side by side with other pitchers and it’s like night and day. Barring injury, he should be an Ace soon.

By: Mr.Benton

Mr.Benton — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 21:23:39 +0000

^^^^ great link, with some good input. Felix has been on some bad team’s in his short ML career, imagine if he had been on winning teams. The M’s need to lock him into an extension for oh, 15 years @ 17m per season. lol

By: Dustin Shires

Dustin Shires — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 21:01:28 +0000

http://ussmariner.com/2008/09/12/dont-worry-about-felix/

Can’t say it any better..

By: mashyuk

mashyuk — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 20:26:10 +0000

I agree we need to resign him, but I don’t see where he has done anything as of yet to deserve #1 ACE starter money when all he has done thus far is show flashes. What has he done thus far to deserve Johan Santana money? He hasn’t come close to sniffing a Cy Young, he isn’t a stopper..yet like Roy Halladay. This is my first post so I am not trying to cause an argument. With how the market is now I would say he is a 13-15mil a year player.
My biggest fear is that he is a Freddy Garcia wannabe

By: Dustin Shires

Dustin Shires — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 20:25:06 +0000

Gotta agree with SABR Matt, fully. I’d buy him an island, or give him stock in Nintendo if that’s what it takes..

By: ernier

ernier — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 16:48:48 +0000

Agreed, M’s have to sign him long term. Otherwise he’d have to be traded at some point before his free agency because 2 draft picks in return is not nearly enough.

Z will get it done.

By: SABR Matt

SABR Matt — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 16:34:14 +0000

offer him an escallating 7 year, 125 million dollar deal with performance bonuses and his own private jet if that’s what it takes…the Mariners are committting franchise suicide if they let this guy hit free agency.

By: seasun62

seasun62 — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 14:10:03 +0000

Pretty easy one here….no brainer.