First Basemen

Since Tino Martinez’s departure following the 1995 season the Seattle Mariners have relied on free agency to fill their first base needs.  Paul Sorrento and David Segui were solid for two seasons each, John Olerud was a minor star for a few seasons before hitting the decline phase of his career, Richie Sexson had one very good season before he started to sputter out, and Russell Branyan put up a great half season before a back injury slowed him down and eventually ended his year prematurely. Despite having one prospect big league ready, the Mariners figure to seek more production on the free agent or trade market.  However, they finally have another prospect, still a couple seasons away, that will look to top Tino as Seattle’s best in-house first baseman since Alvin Davis.

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1.	Rich Poythress, 1B/DH 08/11/87 (22) West Tenn-Tacoma

Drafted in the 2nd round (#51 overall) in the 2009 draft. Listed at 6’4/235. Bats right. Poythress may have been the second best college hitter after Dustin Ackley. While that is certainly debatable, it is obvious that the Mariners landed an offensively polished player in Poythress. After his sheer size and strength, the thing that jumps out most about Poythress may be his knowledge of the strikezone and willingness to take a walk. He had more walks than strikeouts in his final two seasons with Georgia, and managed 20 walks in just 32 games between Arizona and West Tenn in his 2009 pro debut. The two most hit on negatives at draft time would probably be his bat speed and his defense. A common draft line was that “his power is more strength than bat speed oriented,” leaving his pro contact rates to be determined. But he’s going to hit the ball a long way and he’s going to get on base.  Poythress isn’t expected to take long to develop, and could be ready for big league action some point during the 2011 season, possibly ready for regular duty by 2012.

2.	Mike Carp, 1B 06/30/86 (23) Tacoma-Seattle

One of several players acquired in trade from the New York Mets in the three way J.J. Putz-Franklin Gutierrez trade on 12/10/08. Listed at 6’2/215. Bats left. Has a pretty swing and great approach at the plate, but the combination of a low power ceiling and below average contact rates put future in question. “Lyle Overbay minus the defensive reputation” is the most common comp, making him a league average-ish first baseman. However, when Carp does get a hold of one he has a habit of hitting them 450 feet, so while his swing is geared towards consistency and line drives, I wonder if he might develop some more consistent power as he gets comfortable in the big leagues. I would be more confident in predicting this if he made more consistent contact (“great hitters develop power”– Carp has a great approach, but is not presently a great hitter), but there still is a chance. Despite having a lower upside than most of these other first basemen, he’s #2 on this list because of his proximity to the big leagues (he’s ready) and probability of reaching expectations.

3.	Dennis Raben, RF/1B 07/31/87 (22) High Desert

Drafted in the 2nd round (#66 overall) of the 2008 amateur draft. Listed at 6’3/220. Bats left. Knee injury (microfracture surgery) wiped out his entire 2009 and many are now questioning his future. His career as an outfielder is almost certainly over, which hurts his stock as he looked like he could handle RF for a few years. Before the injury he paired light tower power with a great approach at the plate. Swing was a little long, however, making him susceptible to the strikeout. Probably a three true outcome type with Jack Cust-type upside if the knee doesn’t hinder him going forward. Raben is a monster and I’m definitely rooting for him. He hopes to be ready for 2010 Spring Training, but I think he could get off to a late start next season.

4.	Jharmidy De Jesus, 1B/3B 08/30/89 (20) Clinton

Signed as an amateur free agent on 8/14/07 for $1M. Listed at 6’3/190. Bats right. One of my favorite prospects coming into the 2009 season, De Jesus didn’t progress as expected. In fact, key members of the Mariners player development staff have said that he showed no real improvement whatsoever after a shoulder injury held him out of full-season baseball. De Jesus hit just .249/.340/.385 in 194 plate appearances for rookie-level Pulaski after hitting .309/.376/.530 over 247 plate appearances between rookie-level Arizona and low-A Everett the year before. Still, the physical tools are there for him to become a very good player and while he’s a free swinger, he isn’t completely lost at the plate. De Jesus has good raw power and, while he can get a little pull happy like many young hitters, has shown off power to all fields.  Hopefully he can rebound in full season baseball in 2010.

5.	Joe Dunigan, 1B/OF 03/29/86 (23) West Tenn

Drafted in the 5th round (#165 overall) of the 2007 amateur draft. Listed at 6’1/215. Bats left. Dunigan burst onto the prospect scene this past season by posting big numbers in High Desert. He hit .294/.355/.570 with 30 homers and 104 RBI in 118 games. His home/away splits were telling though, as 21 of his homers came in the High Desert launching pad and he hit just .244/.313/.431 on the road. Dunigan has very good raw power and can whip the bat around with the best of them, but in the past he’s counteracted much of that by employing a very long swing path, which, along with struggles laying off good breaking balls and lefties, shows up in the big strikeout totals. Some reports also mention a swing hitch that keeps him from maximizing his natural raw power. The swing has shortened a bit though, and he had a decent showing in the Arizona Fall League. At 23 he’s a little old for the level for a legitimate prospect, but he’s someone worth keeping an eye on. I don’t think he’s a regular, but he might be a good platoon bat some day.

Watch list – Andres Brito: 2009 IFA is just 16 but 6’4/230. Described as one of the better power hitters on the international market last summer. Signed as a 3B, but will likely move across. Johan Limonta: Got more attention than he should have during the Bavasi years because of his high OBPs (a system rarity then), but is about to lose prospect status at age 26. The Cuban can hit and walk, but no power. Career .294/.367/.459. Gerardo Avila: Breakout year in Everett, but is old for the level. (Edit: became a free agent, signed with Atlanta. See comments)

The disclaimer: I do these reports and rankings as part of my own baseball education, and figure that some people will enjoy the information and opinions I’ve compiled.  I am by no means an expert evaluator of minor league talent, so all views and rankings should be taken with a grain of salt and are very much up for discussion.  It is a hobby, but something that I am relatively new at.  I am inexperienced enough that I don’t have much of a track record in terms of predicting the outcomes of prospects, but hopefully these types of posts will allow me to look back in a few years and see what I got right and all I got wrong.