Outfielders

Barring something unexpected, the Seattle Mariners have two-thirds of their outfield set for the foreseeable future. Ichiro’s contract goes through 2012 and Franklin Gutierrez is on the verge of signing an extension that will keep him around through at least 2013.  This is good news considering the nature of Seattle’s outfield prospects.  There are only three guys on the list below that can be counted on to contribute at the big league level anytime soon, one of which could be moving to the infield and another may not be much more than a bench player.  The others are a mix of high risk/high upside athletes and teenagers that will likely take several years to develop.

.

1.	Dustin Ackley, OF/2B 02/26/88 (21) West Tenn

Drafted in the first round (#2 overall) of the 2009 amateur draft. Listed at 6’1/185. Bats left. Next time around Ackley may be topping the infielders section, but until we find out how the second base experiment is going I’ll leave him here. As an outfielder, he has good range and takes decent routes for his experience level, though his throwing arm leaves much to be desired. Offensively he is expected to hit for high average and draw plenty of walks, giving him a shot at .300/.400 or better.  The power isn’t there yet– the 22 homers he hit for UNC were more aluminum than anything– but he should have double digit home run pop at some point, with a possible ceiling of about 20 homers.   With plus-plus speed to go with those on-base skills, Ackley is a strong candidate to succeed Ichiro and/or Chone Figgins at the leadoff spot, but could fit in hitting second or even third at some point. Ackley should be a quick study offensively, though his possible shift to second base could slow his ascent to the big leagues slightly. The New Kid should get a September callup in 2010.  Video: BP with scouting report voiceover, fall 2009

2.	Mike Saunders, OF 11/19/86 (23) Seattle

Drafted in the 11th round (#333 overall) of the 2004 amateur draft. Listed at 6’4/210. Bats left.  Saunders is long, lanky and an exceptional athlete. He has  a decent approach at the plate and while his swing is more line-drive oriented he’s plenty strong enough to hit for power. 20+ home runs may not be out of the question once he gets his feet under him. It was apparent that his swing had some major holes that needed to be addressed, and the organization has been working on revamping his swing since he arrived with the big club last summer.  They rarely played him, using the callup as a coaching opportunity rather than an audition, and had him stop in Arizona for more specified instruction before heading off to winter ball.  You’ve got to love Saunders’ great defensive and small ball abilities, allowing him to contribute even if he’s having trouble harnessing his great physical tools on the offensive end. Saunders is a premium prospect as a center fielder, but he won’t get that chance in Seattle. As a corner outfielder he is less valuable, though he still has above-average upside.  With good outfield depth at the big league level, Saunders could be used as trade-bait in the near future.  Video: BP and game ABs, June 2009

3.	Julio Morban, CF 02/13/92 (17) Pulaski

Signed as an amateur free agent for $1.1M on 7/2/08. Listed at 6’1/190. Bats left. One of the more highly regarded 2008 IFAs, Morban was given the most aggressive assignment of his class when he was sent to Pulaski to start the year. Despite being bumped back down to Arizona, the move shows how the organization views his polish (relative to age) and makeup. Morban is said to be very coachable, possessing a great feel for the game and advanced approach at the plate. He projects as a top 3rd of the order hitter, most likely leadoff or #2. Defensively, the hope is that he’ll stick in center field but many believe he’ll end up in left long term.

4.	Guillermo Pimentel, LF 10/05/92 (17) Arizona

Signed as an amateur free agent for approximately $2M on July 2, 2009. Listed at 6’2/185. Bats left. This may seem like an aggressive ranking for a 17 year old who has yet to break into affiliated baseball, but he appears quite advanced for his age and was one of the three or four top IFAs in 2009 (before the Cubans burst onto the scene, anyway). Early reports highlight his good approach at the plate, top notch raw power, solid swing mechanics and advanced pitch recognition skills (for his age and experience level). He should be athletic enough to play a solid corner outfield as he matures, though it’s too early to tell just how much he’ll fill out. He doesn’t throw well, likely limiting him to left field. I’m really looking forward to watching this guy rack up some numbers.  Video: BP and throwing, 2009

5.	James Jones, RF 09/24/88 (21) Clinton-High Desert

Drafted in the 4th round (#113 overall) of the 2009 amateur draft. Listed at 6’4/193. Bats left. Zduriencik and McNamara used the 2009 draft to create a safety blanket of sorts, focusing on probability rather than upside. Jones was one of the few upside/project picks, though he does have a decent foundation. Known more as a pitching prospect coming into the draft (low-mid 90s from the mound), the big lefty reminds of Dontrelle Willis in terms of physicality and even mannerisms. Jones has a decent approach at the plate, good physical tools and early reports on the intangibles are positive (leadership, coachability, etc.). His swing needs some work, both in terms of stiffening up his front side and generating more power, as well as cutting down on some of the strikeouts, but he’s got a shot to hit for enough power to play a corner. Jones had a great debut for Everett, hitting .311/.392/.463 in 45 games, fueled by a fantastic close to the season.   Video: 3 ABs, August 2009

6.	Greg Halman, OF 08/26/87 (22) West Tenn-Tacoma

Signed as a free agent on 6/26/04 out of the Dutch Major Leagues. Listed at 6’4/190. Bats right. Halman we all know. He has the physical tools of a superstar but swings and misses like Pedro Cerrano. After a monster 2008, Halman’s strikeout percentage ballooned to 40% and in no month did he post an OBP above .300. He still has excellent raw power of course, as he hit 44 extra base hits to 52 singles. Poor pitch recognition is what is killing him, as pitchers have started throwing him a steady diet of breaking pitches that he’s not recognizing, though it’s not as if he’s particularly disciplined either and his swing can get a bit long at times. Halman is still young (even for the level) and it’s far to early to give up on him no matter how frustrating he is. The deck is certainly stacked against players with his BB/K ratios, but while it’s easy to write him off as a Charlton Jimerson/Reggie Abercrombie fourth outfielder, there is that tiny, lottery chance he can find his way to the Alfonso Soriano, Juan Gonzalez or Bo Jackson path, which is what drives you crazy. Halman has the best upside of anyone on this entire report, but is also be among the most likely to bust. He is a wild card.  Video: Triple, fall 2008

7.	Ezequiel Carrera, OF 06/11/87 (22) Tacoma

One of several players acquired in trade from the New York Mets in the three way Putz-Gutierrez trade on 12/10/08. Listed at 5’10/179. Bats left.  Carrera had a great season in West Tenn between minor injuries, posting a .337/.441/.416 batting line in 405 plate appearances to go along with 27 stolen bases. The on-base totals are certainly impressive, though the complete lack of power is discouraging (18 extra base hits to 93 singles).  I tend to think his speed and defensive abilities are overrated by many Mariner fans.  He’s known as an above average runner, but he’s not a burner– think Randy Winn on the basepaths and in the outfield.  He has no plus-plus tools but maximizes his ability with a great feel for the game on both sides of the ball.  He doesn’t have the bat speed to develop any power, so I worry about his ability to punish meatballs down the middle. If pitchers do not fear him they won’t allow him to walk, which is presently one of his greater assets.  His .337 average was fueled by a .411 BABIP, nearly 100 points above his career average, so it’s not likely that so many balls fall in.  He’s likely a fourth outfielder, but if he can prove he can hit the ball hard in AAA (no slap hitting), keep the average and walks up, cut down on the strikeouts a little more and play plus defense in center field, he might be able to start.  Of any prospect in these rankings, reports on Carrera may have been the most conflicting– it’s definitely been difficult to get a read on him.  I look forward to seeing a lot of him with the Rainiers in 2010.

8.	Johermyn Chavez, RF 01/26/89 (20) High Desert

One of two players acquired in trade from the Toronto Blue Jays for Brandon Morrow on 12/23/09. Listed at 6’3/220. Bats right. Chavez got a lot of attention as an IFA a couple years ago for his great physical tools, and he already appears fully developed physically at this point. He reminds of a monster version of Jose Guillen (+ 4″, 30+ lbs). He possesses very good raw power and a strong throwing arm. The 49 extra base hits he registered last season in a pitcher friendly environment were certainly impressive, but the strikeouts stand out. He has a way to come with pitch recognition and his swing will need to be cleaned up a bit, but his willingness to take a few pitches will help him in the future. He’s a high risk/high reward player, making him someone you should be checking in on but not counting on.  For me, he doesn’t get the tools-bump that Halman got last year because he doesn’t run or field nearlyas well, leaving him with fewer options.  He’s going to have to be an above average hitter to find a place in the big leagues.  His High Desert numbers could be comical.  Note: His first name sometimes spelled with a Y and sometimes with a J.  Video: Double, fall 2009

9.	Denny Almonte, OF 09/24/88 (21) Clinton-High Desert

Drafted in the 2nd round (76th overall) of the 2007 amateur draft. Listed at 6’2/187. Bats both. Almonte is on here for his very good physical tools, though he has not managed to use them to create positive results in 2 1/2 years as a professional. His contact rates are among the very worst in the system, and while he draws a few walks he is known to chase breaking balls out of the zone regularly. He’s a switch hitter, but both of his swings need refinement. From the left side he is smoother and makes more consistent contact, but from the right side he has shown a little more power. Almonte figures to start 2010 back in the Midwest League for the third year in a row, but hopefully he can get off to a good enough start that he can make the jump to High Desert where the hitter friendly conditions may restore some confidence and get him on track. The raw power and overall physical package is enough to keep an eye on him despite the poor showing, though the gap between him and the rest of the list is wide. Video: RH HR, 2009

10.	Ryan Royster, CF 10/13/85 (24) Clinton-High Desert

Drafted in the 13th round (#402 overall) in the 2008 amateur draft. Listed at 6’4/180. Bats left. Royster crash landed in his 2008 debut, but bounced back in a big way this past season. He hit .326/.413/.579 between Everett and Clinton before his year ended prematurely after suffering a shoulder injury on defense, requiring surgery. He has good overall physical tools with speed being his greatest asset. He has a good approach at the plate, good swing mechanics and has shown a little pop. He’ll be 24 next year, so he’s definitely old for the level, but if Royster can continue to stay on track he could find himself on a few more people’s radar. One of my favorite sleeper prospects.  Video: HR, 2009

Watch list: Efrain Nunez: Teenage switch hitter has good power potential and a decent foundation at the plate. Will be a long term prospect. In over his head in USA debut. George Drulliard: Teenage left fielder has caught the attention of some in the Dominican Summer League. He’ll likely be making the jump to the States next season. Carlos Peguero: Another high strikeout, low walks, high power hitters, but without the athleticism of some of the guys higher on the list. Took a step back with his contact rates last season. 172 Ks in 126 games for High Desert.  2010 will be big, as he’ll likely be forced to leave his High Desert home of three seasons for a tougher environment.  Kuo Hui Lo: He feels like he’s been around forever, but he’s still just 23.  Getting old for his level, but improved a bit in 2009 and a strong showing in AA this season keeps him on the radar.  Matt Cerione: If he can stick in CF he could be interesting, but I don’t see it.  Seems like he was always on base whenever I saw him with Everett.  He is not the author of MetsBlog. Ha.

The disclaimer: I do these reports and rankings as part of my own baseball education, and figure that some people will enjoy the information and opinions I’ve compiled.  I am by no means an expert evaluator of minor league talent, so all views and rankings should be taken with a grain of salt and are very much up for discussion.  It is a hobby, but something that I am relatively new at.  I am inexperienced enough that I don’t have much of a track record in terms of predicting the outcomes of prospects, but hopefully these types of posts will allow me to look back in a few years and see what I got right and all I got wrong.