Starting Pitchers

Note: I’ve discovered that these prospect reports look super janky in the RSS feed.  RSS users, I apologize, but if you click through you’ll be in for a much more aesthetically pleasing experience.

Since becoming the GM of the Seattle Mariners, Jack Zduriencik has cashed in some of his inherited minor league pitching depth for that of the major league variety.  Aaron Pribanic, Brett Lorin and Nathan Adcock were sent off to Pittsburgh as part of the package that brought Seattle starter Ian Snell and shortstop Jack Wilson.  Phillippe Aumont and JC Ramirez went towards bringing the Mariners Cliff Lee.  You could even mention the deal that sent Fabian Williamson to the Boston Red Sox for David Aardsma.  All three deals were good ones for Seattle, but the minor league depth took a bit of a hit.  Luckily, Zduriencik made three lopsided trades that gave the Mariners three of their current top five starting pitching prospects.  None of Zduriencik’s imports or Bill Bavasi’s holdovers carry the upside of Aumont or even Ramirez, but there is some depth there.  Given Seattle’s young big league starting depth, the prospects below could give the organizaation enough until Zduriencik is able to inject some more high upside arms into the system.  While you can never have enough starting pitching depth at the minor league level, hopefuly the Mariners won’t need to count on more than one or two of these guys breaking through before Jack Z. injects some more high upside arms into the system.

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1.	Dan Cortes, SP 03/04/87 (22) West Tenn-Tacoma

One of two players acquired in trade from Kansas City Royals for Yuniesky Betancourt on 7/10/09. Listed at 6’6/215. Throws right. After struggling much of the year, Cortes came to life down the stretch, showing a mid-high 90s fastball, out-pitch curve and improved control according to reports. Still, command and the development of a third pitch are not where they need to be at this point, making him a probable reliever as he nears the big leagues.  If he can pull it together he has the stuff to become a good middle of the rotation pitcher for Seattle; a #2 or pseudo-ace if everything breaks right. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt for now as he seems re-energized since escaping Kansas City.   Video: Cortes’ delivery (Fall 2008)

2.	Michael Pineda, SP 01/18/89 (20) High Desert-West Tenn

Signed as an amateur free agent on 12/12/05. Listed at 6’5/180. Throws right. Pineda’s numbers as a professional are simply incredible. In 265 career innings he’s managed a 2.04 ERA with 242 K to just 59 BB. He throws a 4-seam fastball that sits in the high 80s/low 90s, touching the mid 90s on occasion. He gets good tailing action and some sink on the pitch due to a low 3/4 arm slot. Has a good changeup, but his slider is slow and tends to flatten out. Despite throwing sidearm he gets decent plane due to his height and tall release position. High elbow, whippy arm action and (perhaps) corresponding elbow injury last season are very concerning, and the lone reason he’s not #1 here. Pineda has to prove that can continue to pound the zone and get away with it in the high minors and, most importantly, prove he’s durable before I buy in the way others have. I think he’s a reliever, but if he can stay healthy and stay on top of his slider he could fit into the middle of the rotation at some point. At very worst, he should be able to make it as a back of the rotation guy in the Fister mold or a fine reliever.  Video: Pineda’s deliver (pre-injury)

3.	Maikel Cleto, SP 05/01/89 (20) High Desert

One of several players acquired in trade from the New York Mets in the three way J.J. Putz-Franklin Gutierrez trade on 12/10/08. Listed at 6’3/218. Throws right.  Cleto, often regarded as the potential hidden gem of the prospects received from the Mets in the Putz deal, wasn’t able to get off to a roaring start with the Mariners. He was stuck in the Dominican Republic for much of the season with hundreds of other ballplayers as part of an FBI-led investigation. When he finally got back to the States and got his arm strength up he missed more time with some back issues. He was only able to make it into 9 ballgames between Arizona and Clinton on the year. Cleto is a fireballer who has also shown a promising changeup. He’s had trouble with his slider, which tends to come out a little slurvey at time. Cleto has fair control but poor command of his pitches at this point. He has a long way to go, but he can top out as a top-middle of the rotation starter or a late inning reliever. He’s the rawest of these top five, but possibly the most electric. Note: Maikel pronounced “Michael.”

4.	Mauricio Robles, SP 03/05/89 (20) West Tenn

One of two players acquired in trade from the Detroit Tigers for Jarrod Washburn on 7/31/09. Listed at 5’10/160.  Throws left. Mariner fans have gotten really excited about Robles, but while he is a southpaw that throws hard and has racked up the K’s in the lower levels, a lot is going to have to go right for him to reach fans’ lofty expectations. He is short and stocky, so according to conventional wisdom he may have a hard time maintaining his velocity long term in a starting role. His curveball has flashed as a plus pitch, but lacks consistency. He doesn’t have much of a changeup at this point, so pair that with poor (though improving) control of his fastball and curve and he could have trouble getting right handed hitters out at higher levels. If he can fix/overcome all of that then he could be something, but chances are he’s a bullpen arm or back of the rotation guy. Not many pitchers with his body type make it at all, let alone as top of the rotation starters.

5.	Steve Hensley, SP 12/27/86 (23) West Tenn

Drafted in the 4th round (132nd overall) of the 2008 amateur draft.  Listed at 6’3/195.  Throws right.  Hensley, a player to watch coming into the season, really opened some eyes in 2009.  Assigned to class-A Clinton, Hensley started the season with 19.2 scoreless frames for the Lumberkings in which he struck out 16 and walked none, garnering an immediate promotion.  Outside of 3 spot starts for AA West Tenn, Hensley spent most of the year with high-A High Desert where he put up an ERA of 4.23 (113 tRA+) over 113 innings, including 108 strikeouts to just 30 walks in one of the nation’s toughest pitching environments.  He also pitched a 3 hit, 10 strikeout shutout in the playoffs for HD.  He’s got a 2-seamer with some late life that sits in the low 90s and will induce a fair number of grounders.  He’ll occasionally dial it up to the mid-90s, and could consistently as a reliever.  His slider has developed into an out pitch, and he throws a decent enough changeup at this stage.  With a pronounced Inverted W causing a slight timing problem as well as a few other ticky-tack issues, Hensley’s motion isn’t likely to please the biomechanics crowd, but as far as I know he hasn’t had any shoulder or elbow issues yet so we’ll sit back and see what happens.  His stuff would play up in the ‘pen, so if starting doesn’t work out for whatever reason he should have a big league career as a reliever.

Watch list – Nick Hill (LH): Originally had him in the top 5 due to his polish and proximity to the bigs, but I just can’t get behind Hill as a starting pitching prospect. Gets grounders with good 2-seamer and changeup and has had plenty of success, but his velo reportedly fades after a couple innings and his mechanics are frightening– short stride, extreme hyperabduction, whippy arm action and throws across his body.  I think he is a permanent reliever starting at some point in 2010.  Jose Valdivia (RH): Teenager is all projection at this point. He has a lanky frame and a big arm. Was throwing in the low 90s as a 16 year old, has touched mid-90s. Reports are scarce since last spring as he threw very little in 2009 (hamstring and back issues). He should be featured more prominently on future lists, but they’re babying him for now. Kenn Kasparek (RH): Great 2009 numbers in Midwest League. Huge, listed between 6’8-6’10. Throws low-mid 90s. No workable changeup, breaking ball is slurvey and inconsistent. Command is an issue. Stuff may play up in relief. If he could use his size to create greater plane on his pitches he’d be in much better shape. George Mieses (RH): Turned a few heads in the Dominican Summer League. Teenager should make the jump to the States next season. Fastball is already up into the high 80s/low 90s and he knows how to place it. Terrence Engles (RH): AAA phase Rule 5 pickup from the Nationals. Fister-esque with great fastball command and lots of grounders. Has to decide between splitter/slider and change/curve. Right now he’s change/curve, I believe. Nolan Diaz (RH): Caught the attention of scouts early in the year after out dueling Oakland’s Michael Ynoa in instructs.  Pounds the strikezone with great fastball command.  Secondary stuff has worked in the rookie leagues, but without plus velo he’ll have to tighten up his offspeed pitches to continue success.  Erasmo Ramirez (RH): Got a lot of attention among minor league watchers for otherworldly numbers in the VSL.  But he’s old for the level (possibly even older than his listed age) and doesn’t have great velo or stuff.  What he does have is better command than you’d ever expect to see in the VSL, which will help him max out his abilities as he makes the jump to the States.  He can put it where he wants it.  Tyler Blandford (RH): 1st pitcher taken by M’s in 2009 draft.  Electric fastball, but has little else working for him. He’s probably popping up in the relief section by the time the next report rolls around, but I’m hoping they at least give him a shot as a starter.  Luke French, Donnie Hume and Robert Rohrbaugh (LH): The soft tossing lefties don’t get much love on rankings like this, but they have a place in the bigs and especially at Safeco Field.

Note - I considered extending this ranking out to 10, but it was the toughest ranking of the series as it were.  The top five could be ordered in virtually any fashion without raising too many objections.  As far as I can tell, there is no clear cut #1 like Juan Ramirez would have been (though even he would not be THAT clear).  Pineda could have been if he had stayed healthy.  Just keep that in mind before you get all worked up other the exact placement, though I’d still like to hear your arguments for who you think should go where.

Relief Pitchers

Relief pitchers, as you know, tend to come out of nowhere and flame out just as quickly, so let’s just keep it simple. Joshua Fields is Seattle’s top pure relief prospect. He has closer upside, throws hard and has a killer curveball. I worry that the fastball might be a little straight for the big leagues, and his control is off and on, but he’ll probably be okay. He should make his big league debut in 2010. Shawn Kelley would still be considered a prospect by some outlets. Great control, command comes and goes, low 90s heat and at times a very good slider. You know him already. Anthony Varvaro and Ricky Orta round out Seattle’s top high-minors pure relief prospects and could also see Seattle in 2010. Varvaro has a good fastball that he pairs with a solid curve and changeup. He’ll occasionally toss in a slider or splitter to cross hitters up, especially lefties. Orta also throws in the low 90s (touching mid 90s) with a below average slurve.

To build a relief prospect you start with a good fastball, then add some combination of poor secondary offerings or no third pitch, poor control or command, a small frame, and/or injury history.  Fields is small, has poor command and no third pitch (though he’s never really been a starter, going back to high school). Kelley, Varvaro and Orta all have past injury problems that keep them pitching in short relief, though Varvaro can also be wild and Orta doesn’t have much of a third pitch.  There are no shortage of high octane arms in the minor leagues with issues that keep them from starting.  We’ll make sure you know who guys are as they approach the big leagues, but there is little reason to go beyond the guys above at this point.

The disclaimer: I do these reports and rankings as part of my own baseball education, and figure that some people will enjoy the information and opinions I’ve compiled.  I am by no means an expert evaluator of minor league talent, so all views and rankings should be taken with a grain of salt and are very much up for discussion.  It is a hobby, but something that I am relatively new at.  I am inexperienced enough that I don’t have much of a track record in terms of predicting the outcomes of prospects, but hopefully these types of posts will allow me to look back in a few years and see what I got right and all I got wrong.