#1: Opportunity cost – If the Seattle Mariners decide to trade Jose Lopez, his replacement isn’t likely to be much worse, if at all.  I’d take him over Orlando Hudson, Adam Kennedy and maybe even Felipe Lopez in a vacuum, but it’s not that simple when you broaden the scope a little bit.  The replacement plus the return in trade (a starting pitcher or left fielder, presumably) is almost certainly more valuable than Lopez plus whatever in-house candidate is used at another position position.  For example:

Orlando Hudson (free agent signing) and Francisco Liriano (obtained for Lopez plus scraps) are greater than Lopez and in-house rotation candidates Jason Vargas, Doug Fister, et al (though, as mentioned in the previous post I’m wary of Liriano); or Hudson and Josh Willingham (obtained in Lopez trade, plus anything else you would get) are greater than Lopez, risking injury to Milton Bradley by playing him in the field against lefties and giving Ken Griffey more playing time than he deserves.

#2: He isn’t a good fit for the ballpark – As we know, Safeco Field gobbles up right handed power hitters for breakfast.  Some have made the case that Lopez is able to skirt Safeco’s effect as well as any other right handed power hitter because of the way he pulls all of his homers right down the line.  But while he has been pretty good at flipping the ball over the hand operated scoreboard, he isn’t capable of hitting the ball very far (average home run distance for 2009 was just 383 feet), meaning he leaves more than his fair share  of balls on the warning track for easy flyouts or the occasional double (although most doubles that land on the warning track are line drives that didn’t have a chance to leave the yard anyway).  He falls just short in left field more than other Mariner righty double digit home run hitters the last couple of years.

The numbers reflect this as well.  In 2009 he hit .229/.254/.387 with 8 home runs over 321 plate appearances at Safeco Field.  On the road he hit .313/.348/.535 with 17 home runs over 341 plate appearances.  Exactly how is Lopez one of the rare right handed hitters who can perform at Safeco?  The argument undoubtedly comes from his outlier 2008 where he hit much better at home (both power and average), but for every other year he has dramatic home/away splits that have him doing much better on the road.  And now that Lopez views himself as a power hitter I’m sure he’ll continue to do better away from the Safe.

#3: Improvements are not guaranteed  - Typically, when you have a 25 year old that hit 25 homers and drove in 96 runners you may think you’ve got a star on your hands, and many fans like to place Lopez on the typical developmental arc and project big things in the future.  That isn’t fair of course, because while many players peak at age 26-28 and begin to decline at 32-33, many do not.  There is no telling whether or not Lopez has reached his peak or if the best is yet to come.

As previously mentioned, Safeco Field limits him.  No matter how good he might get, he’ll always be better elsewhere without a radical change of skill set. That is something that seems to be lost on a lot of fans.  Yes, he’s an asset on the road, but for half the games he is a terrible player.  And no matter how good he could be in a vacuum, he will not get much better in Seattle.  He will blossom elsewhere.  That would be tough to see as a fan and we’d all have to put up with whiners saying the Mariners gave up too early on him a la Carlos Guillen, but that should be used as a selling point rather than a sticking point.  No matter how good he gets, Safeco will put a ceiling on his progress.  There is a reason why GM Jack Zduriencik has made such an effort to bring in players more suited to the ballpark.

You can also include his defensive uncertainty as part of his limited upside.  We’ve all been expecting a decline in his defensive skills given his body type and desire to bulk up and be a power hitter.  To his credit, conditioning was part once a major part of the assumption that he’d have to move off the position and I’d say that is less of a concern now.  He still doesn’t look as athletic of the guys ahead of him on the UZR leaderboards, but I’ll go out on a limb and suggest that he looked significantly less doughy in years prior, and there have been plenty of reports that not his new willingness to put extra work in.  The departure of Yuni Betancourt probably helps in that regard as well.  Also, by being sandwiched by Jack Wilson and Casey Kotchman going forward, you’ve got to think he’ll be inspired to up his game.  So while his likelihood of moving off the position in the near future may not be as imminent as it has been in recent offseasons, it’s still something to watch.  If he has to move to third base chances are his value drops (unless he can be a significantly better fielder at third base than he is at second base, which I suppose is a possibility), and if he moves to first base his value is completely shot.

No matter how much strength he has, his swing as it is now isn’t particularly conducive to big home run power, which should be evident by his home run distances and lack of power to center and right.  There is no ferocity in the swing, very little hip/shoulder separation, and rather than striding towards the ball he actually strides backwards.  He’s gotten really good at rotating his hips and shoulders around, dragging the barrel of his bat through the zone and getting the barrel on the ball with just enough on it for a short home run to left.  Even when he gets a meatball right down the middle– like the Bobby Jenks home run late in the year– that ferocity barely jumps up.  He’s not going to pound a hanging breaking ball the way Adrian Beltre would jump on a mistake and hit it 420+ feet.  He’s going to hit a hanger the same way he hits an inside fastball.   There are tweaks that can be made to give him more power, but there is no guarantee that those changes are made.  As he matures he can gain some strength and turn a few of those warning track balls into homers, but he isn’t primed for a breakout the way other 25 year olds with similar numbers might be.

The biggest reason why I don’t believe in Lopez’s upside is his approach at the plate and the approach opposing pitchers are employing.  We all know that Lopez is a free swinger, and of the biggest hackers in baseball right now.  We all know that he’s among the worst in baseball in terms of walk percentage and pitches per plate appearance.  So it’s no surprise that he saw the fewest number of strikes in 2009 compared to any other point in his career.  But it’s concerning that while seeing fewer strikes, he swung more often than years prior.

But what is worse is the way pitchers are pitching him.  Lopez makes his living on fastballs, and specifically fastballs middle in.  But this past season Lopez saw fewer fastballs than at any point in his career, and if you look at the scatter plots you’ll see that pitchers are going more and more to the outside.  As long as Lopez keeps swinging at everything, pitchers will continue to throw fewer fastballs, fewer strikes and fewer inside pitches.  Sure, the occasional mistake will still float into his wheelhouse and he’ll put it over the fence, but at some point you have to think that his batting average and overall slugging percentage will take a hit, which is where his offensive value lies.  And I’m not sure Lopez can adjust his approach.  We saw “more patient” Lopez under John McLaren, but all that meant was taking the first pitch, usually for a quick strike.  There is room for his fastball percentage to drop another 5-10%, and what happens then?

#4: His trade value doesn’t figure to get much higher – While much of the blogosphere and presumably the Mariners themselves aren’t especially fond of the way Lopez plays the game, it’s still obvious that he’s a bargain at his price.  But all good things must come to an end, and Lopez’s contract only goes through 2011 (if you assume the Mariners pick up his option year, which they likely would).  Yes, that’s still plenty of time to trade him, but every day he plays with the Mariners he is less valuable to a prospective trade partner.

It’s simple enough.  With two years left until free agency Mark Teixeira gets the Texas Rangers Neifi Perez Feliz, Elvis Andrus, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Matt Harrison and a minor league reliever from the Atlanta Braves.  With one year left, he gets the Braves Casey Kotchman and a minor league reliever.  That isn’t completely fair considering the Rangers made a helluva deal and the Braves made a poor one (at the time, not necessarily in retrospect), but the point remains.  There are exceptions (like the Matt Holliday deals), but for the most part I think it’s safe to say that the shorter the contract the weaker the return, depending on  the market.

Lopez’s trade value isn’t particularly high right now not because of what he’s capable of but because there aren’t many teams looking for second basemen and there are strong options available via free agency.  How much will that change by next offseason?

At this point in the offseason, the only teams that look like they’re seeking a new second baseman are the Minnesota Twins, Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals (who would actually prefer a shortstop so they could move Christian Guzman to second base).  Other teams that could think about getting a second baseman but are more or less content with their internal options are the Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Dodgers and maybe a couple of others.  Free agent second basemen include Orlando Hudson, Adam Kennedy and Felipe Lopez, and at one point also included Placido Polanco and Kelly Johnson.  The trade market also includes Dan Uggla, who is viewed as a slightly better option compared to J Lopez, and Alberto Callaspo, a comparable player, among others (no way of knowing every player that can be had).

How does that compare to next offseason? Obviously, things can change quickly.  Players can stop being productive or get seriously injured, or trades can open up different holes, but as of now there only appears to be three or four teams that will really be looking for second base help (Astros, Diamondbacks, Mets, Pirates) and a handful of other teams that could be looking depending on what happens in 2010.

There won’t be near the second base depth on the free agent market.  There are no players that are clear starters, and the best options appear to be Aki Iwamura, Julio Lugo, Juan Uribe and Kaz Matsui.  It’s really tough to try and figure out who could be available in trade this far out, but there are enough guys nearing free agency (Weeks, Phillips, Sanchez, DeRosa, Cano, Uggla) that there could be some big names on the trade market.

So as things stand a year out it looks like there could be an improved trade market for Lopez (assuming his defense allows him to continue being viewed as a second baseman), but it still doesn’t look like a market in which second basemen will be in high demand.  Lopez’s demand could be higher than it is this offseason, but would it translate to higher trade value with only one year left on his contract as opposed to two?  That’s certainly debatable, and I’ve got to think it’s a wash at best.

#5: Extending him isn’t an option – As mentioned, Lopez is a bargain right now.  But with good vanity numbers (HR, RBI, AVG) he could be in line for a substantial raise via free agency, depending on the market.  If he can get himself $8-10M per year he’s not nearly as profitable, especially if you are with me and don’t believe in his perceived upside.

More importantly, Carlos Triunfel and Dustin Ackley are very close to the big leagues.  These are the types of prospects that the Mariners should be more willing to take a chance on (as opposed to going with a proven player with less upside) and will be looking for an infield spot.  Shortstop isn’t likely for either player, and Chone Figgins will be filling one of third base or second base, leaving Lopez’s spot.  There is little reason to keep Lopez around beyond 2011.

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It’s hard for me to find reasons for Seattle to keep Jose Lopez assuming that there is a beneficial trade out there and that a suitable replacement can be had for a fair price.  He may blossom elsewhere, which would be hard to watch, but the bottom line is that he is unlikely to blossom that way in Seattle.  If you love him, let him go… Ha!