Beltre, a Vacuum, and a Whole Lotta Mess
by Matthew Carstens ~ January 6th, 2010
Editor’s note: I’m pleased to introduce Matthew Carstens, one of the writers hoping to shoulder some of the PBNW workload going forward. I’m not guaranteeing anyone a permanent spot right off the bat, so he’ll have to earn it. Make sure you give him lots of feedback and welcome him to the site!
As I watched the wonderful YouTube video that Dave of USSM tweeted (if you haven’t seen it you’re in for a treat) I really came to understand just how insane of a 3rd basemen Adrian Beltre was. I mean I always knew he was good, and watching him day in and day out was a great experience, but watching plays in rapid succession really helped it sink in. With that sling shot arm and his trademark bare-handed bunt plays, we were spoiled in the Northwest to see that glove for as long as we did.
Which got me to thinking. With all of the Hall of Fame talk that’s been going on recently I wondered for second if Adrian might have a chance. My immediate reaction was ‘no way’. He’s got a “Hall of Fame” glove for sure, but is that enough? Then another HoF glove-first 3rd baseman came to mind: Brooks Robinson.
Knowing his reputation with the glove (the best defensive third baseman ever) I looked up some offensive numbers.
Slash Line
Beltre- .270/.325/.453
Robinson- .267/.322/.401
.wOBA
Beltre- .335
Robinson- .322
Based on those numbers the picture that we get is that these players were strikingly similar offensively, with the edge going to Beltre. Of course, Robinson played in an offensively repressed era that featured taller mounds and expanded strike zones during his prime years (hence the higher WAR totals below despite similar slash lines), but Beltre had to hit at Safeco during most of his prime. Memorial Stadium in Baltimore was only 309 feet down the left field line, while Safeco is 331 feet. Let’s take a look at their best seasons according to Wins Above Replacement.
Click to enlarge
Aside from his monster year in ’04, it’s hard to say he’s even comparable to Robinson, but Robinson did break into the league at 18 and stayed for 22 years while Beltre is only on his 11th full year in the big leagues. If he can come up with a couple 5 win seasons, the gap will have closed a bit.
Moving on from the Robinson, I think we can all agree that Hall of Fame defense is Hall of Fame defense, and through my eyes at least, Beltre has it. But should we consider third base to be a position where premium defense can get you in the Hall? Why not? A ground ball that gets past shortstop or second is usually just a single, but if it sneaks past the hot corner, it’s got a good chance to be extra bases.
Although it is a rarity, there are a few precedents for glove-first Hall of Famers. Ozzie Smith is everyone’s favorite defensive wizard and he only batted .262/.337/.328! On the other side of second base we have Bill Mazeroski who is regarded as the best defensive second basemen of all time. His slash line is even worse, .260/.299/.367. They both, however, have huge clutch post season home runs to their credit, Smith in Game 5 of the 1985 NLCS and Mazeroski with the clinching home run in the 1960 World Series, and we all know how the voters love nostalgia. If those two can get in on defense, Beltre being at least an average hitter could have a chance.
And finally, a point I believe we should all think hard about. Should a player with only one elite skill be enshrined in Cooperstown, or should they have to have multiple elite skills? Brooks Robinson was a good hitter, but was hardly an elite hitter. Much like Beltre, Robinson had one great year, followed by some pretty good years. If Robinson did not have his Gold Glove reputation (16 consecutive), I can confidently say he would not be in the Hall of Fame. Same goes for The Wizard and Maz.
Adrian Beltre is arguably the best defensive third baseman in the game today whether you go by the metrics, the scouts, players or whoever, and it’s hard to imagine anyone being significantly better throughout the history of the game. He probably won’t reach any of the magical offensive milestones like 500 homers. Heck, he might not even get 400. But if at the end of his career he has a couple good October moments, maybe a ring or two, and he can still compare himself to the Human Vacuum, he’s got a shot, especially considering the way focus is shifting to defense. It probably won’t hurt that he now plays for THE NATION, either.
12 Responses to Beltre, a Vacuum, and a Whole Lotta Mess
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Jon
January 6th, 2010 at 10:26 pm
It’s definitely an interesting topic. The biggest disadvantage to Beltre, especially when comparing to Robinson, is probably reputation and publicity. Robinson may not have been a HOF bat by today’s standards, but he was among the best hitting third basemen in the game at that time. Ken Boyer was very good, but who else was there?
Meanwhile, Beltre is overshadowed. Go to the average MLB fan and they’ll probably rattle off 5-10 3B before getting to Beltre. Robinson won the Gold Glove 16 consecutive times and was an All Star game regular, while Beltre just hasn’t kept up offensively enough to get people’s attention in a time where so much focus is placed on the offense.
Beltre may have a Hall of Fame caliber glove, but the focus tends to go to overall value (with up the middle defenders being the exception, perhaps). It’s interesting to think about though.
Walrus
January 7th, 2010 at 12:40 am
Jon is correct for now.
However, Beltre could play another 10+ years if his health allows. Then, if he plays in Boston for those years AND keeps up most of the defense AND his is involved in a few WS wins AND ….Beltre can get there.
Adrian just has a long way to go to get there.
200tang
January 7th, 2010 at 4:42 am
Unless defense metrics become a lot more accepted than I think they will by the time he retires it’s hard for me to think he’ll get elected. I think it boils down to will he be famous enough? Does he pull off that amazing play in the world series or does he hit well enough to win some gold gloves? Sad it has to be that way, but I can’t imagine any other scenario where his defense can carry his offense enough in the minds of the voters.
It’s tough for me, honestly, because defense is my favorite aspect of the game, but he just doesn’t strike me as an amazing player, even if he kept it up in Boston for another 10 years. His peak for me, is ‘meh’ and in my mind the length & value of what his career could be is not amazing.
Another player worth thinking about is Andruw Jones. He had some amazing years and then fell off a cliff, but wow, that peak was amazing. If you believe a metric like UZR, then from ’02-’07 he was consistently as good as Gutierrez and better in some years. Offensively he finished above 120 wRC+ in 6 of those years and above 100 in all.
Depending on how much emphasis you give to peak, you could argue that Andruw Jones almost has a better case than Adrian Beltre.
Jon Reply:
January 7th, 2010 at 6:57 am
“or does he hit well enough to win some gold gloves”
Classic. At least he has two so far.
harrison
January 7th, 2010 at 6:25 am
You know after reading Red’s letter on Lookout Landing I was thinking about the same thing. Great topic and comparisons. Look forward to reading more posts from you!
dmojr
January 7th, 2010 at 7:36 am
awesome post Matt, looking forward to more in the future. As of right now i don’t see Beltre as a Hall of Famer… maybe a STRONG finish to his career will change my mind, but in his era, i don’t feel he will get the praise he deserves.
Matthew Carstens Reply:
January 7th, 2010 at 10:34 am
The weird thing is I don’t really see him as a HOFer either. I just think his defense is up there so why not?
Scott Weber
January 7th, 2010 at 8:12 am
Beltre actually has an outside shot at 3,000 hits too. It’s going to be really interesting if that happens.
Jon Reply:
January 7th, 2010 at 10:49 am
When you become a regular and are good at age 20 that is definitely possible, though I hadn’t realized that he was already up to 1700. Just needs to keep up the pace.
I could have sworn I read somewhere fairly recently that he only plans on playing 5 more years, but couldn’t find it. Maybe it was something else…
sodomojo95 Reply:
January 7th, 2010 at 10:14 pm
Andruw Jones ate his way out of CF. Adrian, meanwhile, is in great shape and at the age of 30 still has the athleticism, quickness, and agility of a 20 year old.
Not a fair comparison.
200tang Reply:
January 9th, 2010 at 2:59 am
I assume you meant to reply to my Andruw Jones comparison?
http://www.baseballprojection.com/war/j/jonea002.htm
Career WAR – 58.4
http://www.baseballprojection.com/war/b/belta001.htm
Career WAR – 36.2
Andruw Jones was an absolute monster during his peak. If he can be even anywhere near average for a few years than you could easily argue he’s HOF worthy. I don’t think either will be a HOF, but this question was more of a “Statistically, does Player X have a shot at the HOF?”.
Uncle
January 8th, 2010 at 3:58 pm
Matt,
Congrats on your first piece in Pro Ball NW…Beltre may go down as the finest third baseman in Mariners history…I have to wonder what it will be like for him in Boston when people see the results of his swing-from-his-backside hitting stroke…Keep the blogs coming…
Uncle Dick