Comments on: Beltre, a Vacuum, and a Whole Lotta Mess

By: 200tang

200tang — Sat, 09 Jan 2010 10:59:08 +0000

I assume you meant to reply to my Andruw Jones comparison?

http://www.baseballprojection.com/war/j/jonea002.htm

Career WAR – 58.4

http://www.baseballprojection.com/war/b/belta001.htm

Career WAR – 36.2

Andruw Jones was an absolute monster during his peak. If he can be even anywhere near average for a few years than you could easily argue he’s HOF worthy. I don’t think either will be a HOF, but this question was more of a “Statistically, does Player X have a shot at the HOF?”.

By: Uncle

Uncle — Fri, 08 Jan 2010 23:58:01 +0000

Matt,
Congrats on your first piece in Pro Ball NW…Beltre may go down as the finest third baseman in Mariners history…I have to wonder what it will be like for him in Boston when people see the results of his swing-from-his-backside hitting stroke…Keep the blogs coming…
Uncle Dick

By: sodomojo95

sodomojo95 — Fri, 08 Jan 2010 06:14:42 +0000

Andruw Jones ate his way out of CF. Adrian, meanwhile, is in great shape and at the age of 30 still has the athleticism, quickness, and agility of a 20 year old.

Not a fair comparison.

By: Jon

Jon — Thu, 07 Jan 2010 18:49:26 +0000

When you become a regular and are good at age 20 that is definitely possible, though I hadn’t realized that he was already up to 1700. Just needs to keep up the pace.

I could have sworn I read somewhere fairly recently that he only plans on playing 5 more years, but couldn’t find it. Maybe it was something else…

By: Matthew Carstens

Matthew Carstens — Thu, 07 Jan 2010 18:34:59 +0000

The weird thing is I don’t really see him as a HOFer either. I just think his defense is up there so why not?

By: Scott Weber

Scott Weber — Thu, 07 Jan 2010 16:12:14 +0000

Beltre actually has an outside shot at 3,000 hits too. It’s going to be really interesting if that happens.

By: dmojr

dmojr — Thu, 07 Jan 2010 15:36:17 +0000

awesome post Matt, looking forward to more in the future. As of right now i don’t see Beltre as a Hall of Famer… maybe a STRONG finish to his career will change my mind, but in his era, i don’t feel he will get the praise he deserves.

By: Jon

Jon — Thu, 07 Jan 2010 14:57:07 +0000

“or does he hit well enough to win some gold gloves”

Classic. At least he has two so far.

By: harrison

harrison — Thu, 07 Jan 2010 14:25:41 +0000

You know after reading Red’s letter on Lookout Landing I was thinking about the same thing. Great topic and comparisons. Look forward to reading more posts from you!

By: 200tang

200tang — Thu, 07 Jan 2010 12:42:37 +0000

Unless defense metrics become a lot more accepted than I think they will by the time he retires it’s hard for me to think he’ll get elected. I think it boils down to will he be famous enough? Does he pull off that amazing play in the world series or does he hit well enough to win some gold gloves? Sad it has to be that way, but I can’t imagine any other scenario where his defense can carry his offense enough in the minds of the voters.

It’s tough for me, honestly, because defense is my favorite aspect of the game, but he just doesn’t strike me as an amazing player, even if he kept it up in Boston for another 10 years. His peak for me, is ‘meh’ and in my mind the length & value of what his career could be is not amazing.

Another player worth thinking about is Andruw Jones. He had some amazing years and then fell off a cliff, but wow, that peak was amazing. If you believe a metric like UZR, then from ’02-’07 he was consistently as good as Gutierrez and better in some years. Offensively he finished above 120 wRC+ in 6 of those years and above 100 in all.

Depending on how much emphasis you give to peak, you could argue that Andruw Jones almost has a better case than Adrian Beltre.

By: Walrus

Walrus — Thu, 07 Jan 2010 08:40:08 +0000

Jon is correct for now.
However, Beltre could play another 10+ years if his health allows. Then, if he plays in Boston for those years AND keeps up most of the defense AND his is involved in a few WS wins AND ….Beltre can get there.
Adrian just has a long way to go to get there.

By: Jon

Jon — Thu, 07 Jan 2010 06:26:17 +0000

It’s definitely an interesting topic. The biggest disadvantage to Beltre, especially when comparing to Robinson, is probably reputation and publicity. Robinson may not have been a HOF bat by today’s standards, but he was among the best hitting third basemen in the game at that time. Ken Boyer was very good, but who else was there?

Meanwhile, Beltre is overshadowed. Go to the average MLB fan and they’ll probably rattle off 5-10 3B before getting to Beltre. Robinson won the Gold Glove 16 consecutive times and was an All Star game regular, while Beltre just hasn’t kept up offensively enough to get people’s attention in a time where so much focus is placed on the offense.

Beltre may have a Hall of Fame caliber glove, but the focus tends to go to overall value (with up the middle defenders being the exception, perhaps). It’s interesting to think about though.