Casey Kotchman to the M’s Rumor

by ~ January 5th, 2010 at 12:47 pm

Buster Olney has tweeted that the Mariners may be close to acquiring 1B Casey Kotchman from the Red Sox. Prospect Insider confirms the rumor, and says that it won’t preclude the M’s from acquiring another 1B.

I doubt Kotchman is going to sit on the bench unless Boston tosses in some cash with Kotchman, as he is likely due $3-4 million in arbitration. If true, this shows that the team does not have much confidence in Mike Carp, and I suspect it’s because of his defensive shortcomings. The Mariners bench is more than full at this point, with Hall, Johnson/Bard, Langerhans, Griffey, Hannahan, Carp, and Kotchman all potential bench players. In the following weeks we should see some clarity as to how the 2010 Mariners bench will look. Nobody knows what Zduriencik has in mind these days.

Kotchman put up an .840 OPS in 2007, but has dropped to a .766 OPS in the 2 years following. He is left-handed and has a reputation as an excellent defensive 1st baseman. He will be 27 at the start of the 2010 season.

This move doesn’t make a whole lot of sense for the Mariners without cash being thrown in. However, he’s a decent back-up plan if the team doesn’t land another 1B on the free agent/trade market.

More details as they break.

Update (Jon): Alex Speier of WEEI:

The Red Sox and Mariners are close to an agreement that would send first baseman Casey Kotchman to the Mariners in exchange for a minor-league player to be named later, a major-league role player and cash, according to a major-league source. The deal is not yet finalized.

Most people figure that Bill Hall is the guy, which would be the only reason the Mariners would be sending money to the Red Sox, rather than the other way around.

I didn’t realize Kotchman was so young.  He’s been around so long that it feels like he should be in his 30s. That is… interesting.

Update (Jon): Ken Rosenthal tweets that it is indeed Hall in the deal.

Update (Jon): Geoff Baker writes that this deal won’t be official for a bit (physicals, Beltre deal, commish approval).

Update (Scott): Alex Speier of WEEI Boston writes that Seattle is expected to send along cash that they received from Milwaukee for Bill Hall.  This seems to infer that Seattle has already received $7 million or so from Milwaukee to cover Hall’s 2010 salary. It should be expected that Seattle will send most, if not all, of this money to Boston to subsequently cover Hall’s salary in Boston this upcoming season. The breaking point, as I see it, is around $5 million sent to Boston. If Seattle sends that much, Boston pays $3.4 million for Hall, which is right about the same as Kotchman would make (maybe less) in arbitration – making this deal about a straight salary swap. If Seattle sends the full amount (~$7 mill), they’re taking on about $2 million in extra salary to cover Kotchman for 2010. If they send less than $5 million, they’re saving some money by making this deal. That’s my interpretation of this, hopefully the full details will come out soon.

Update (Scott): Alex Speier also tweets that the Red Sox will come from list of Mariners prospects who the Red Sox will evaluate in spring training. Translation – it’s most likely not going to be anybody significant.

Update (Jon): Prospect Insider is reporting that the PTBNL is a catcher not named Baron or Coleman.  With those guys off the table, the chances of you ever missing this guy is small, though PI mentions Hassiel Jimenez as the only possible prospect that could be available.  I totally whiffed on him for the catcher’s prospect report.


  • http://proballnw.com Jon

    If Carp is replacement level, this makes some level of sense, but I’m with you that some money needs to be thrown in so he can be easily dumped should a better option come around. It’ll be pretty disappointing if Kotchman is plan A, B.. hell C.

    But I find it hard to believe that the Sawks will send money. They’re trying to get under the luxury tax, correct? Or is it too little too late anyway?

  • ernier

    Buster Olney on Brock and Salk said he heard no money was involved and he likes the deal of the M’s…for what it’s worth. I think Carp will start the season in AAA and I also think the M’s will add another DH type bat.

    • StandinPat

      I doubt it’d be another DH type bat, with both Bradley and Griffey requiring some AB’s there. A bat with some sort of versatility makes sense though.

  • jeremytk42

    I totally agree with Jon, I really hope he’s not plan A. I trust in Z though so I’m sure he’s not done yet.

    It will be sort of ironic if we sign Adam LaRoche as well since they were traded for each other. Kinda like if a team traded Carlos Guillen for Ramon Santiago and they ended up on the same tea…..oh, wait.

  • FelixFanChris420

    Hate this move.

    Cash, a Minor Leaguer and a “Major League Role Player” for a guy who has a .406 career SLG% from a “power first” position and is really nothing more than a role player himself?

    Bad form Jack…bad form

  • http://proballnw.com Jon

    I’m starting to believe Kotchman might just be Plan A, and I have mixed feelings about that. Don’t hate the deal, but can’t get too terribly excited either.

    I’ll try to keep quiet until we know what the full deal is, then we’ll have a reactions post.

  • FelixFanChris420

    If Kotchman is Plan A, we’d better hope this pitching staff has an ERA under 3 for the whole season as we won’t be scoring runs

  • dmojr

    hmm shipping off Hall huh? Bench was crowded.. and Hannahan can fill the IF UTL spot.. and in a crunch Figgy can head to the OF… I liked Hall, but am not to worried about it.

    Between Kotchman’s young age and my “belief” in Z’s eye for potential, it’s time to cross our fingers?

  • petermag

    I think that he’s plan A as well and I feel great about it. He’s great defensively and still young. He’s a classic JackZ guy. He’s buying low on him and if he has a breakout year in 2010, Jack either signs him to a longterm deal or uses him as tradebait for a guy like Gonzalez.

    Bottom line is that there wasnt a high impact 1b out there that wasnt overvalued. Jack is accomplishing a couple of things with this move. He is unloading an unnecessary roster guy in Hall, freeing up a roster spot and he is filling a need at first base with someone who will solidly contribute and MAY have a break out year similar to Guti or Branyan.

    Remember when Jack Z took over this team, the cupboard was not only bare, it was bare with debt. Z has unloaded guys and contracts that dont fit in order to build a core to build from. It is not in his DNA to overpay for a guy without the guarantee that he will produce at the level he is paying them.

    The day will come when the Mariners have that stud 3/4 hitter or hitters in the lineup. However, going after that guy before building a base in your lineup, defense and pitching is like drafting a Quarterback before you have an offensive line.

    If Jack took over a different team, he would target different guys. Right now the foundation of the roster is being set so that this team is guaranteed to compete for the division. His next goal is manipulating the roster so that it is guaranteed to compete in the playoffs. One step at a time guys.

  • FelixFanChris420

    PeterMag,

    Defense is great and all, but at some point, you need to ask: when is enough? When you have a 1B who has a career .406 SLG% and hasn’t been a relevant major league hitter since 2007, you’re at that point.

    Delgado, Branyan, LaRoche, My Kid Sister…

    What do they have in common you ask?

    All would be better options at 1B for the 2010 Seattle Mariners than Casey Kotchman, the poster boy for mediocrity.

  • petermag

    FelixFan,

    You cant rate Kotchman on his career slg %. He has been traded many times and he battled health issues early in his career. Health problems plus being relocated every 6 months add up to an inconsistent data pool to pull from.

    I think Kotchman’s 2007 season should be as high as we can hope for. But thats not a bad season at all. That season, he hit .296/.372/.406. No he’s not a powerhitter. And he never will be. But he’s solid. And his defense is in the upperechelon of the league.

    I’m sure there were many that were not excited about Branyan when they signed him as well. Just because this guy doesnt have a “name” doesnt mean that he’s worse than the guys (or your sister) you listed out. Branyan only is a name now because Jack gave him a chance. The exact same thing he is doing with Kotchman.

    There is more than one way to win. History has proven that. Think of this team as MLB’s version of the Bears super bowl team. Great defense with a terrible offense run by rex grossman.

    It is obvious that JackZ thinks the mariners can compete with defense and an average offense or even below average offense. But remember, this version of the Mariners only needs to be competitve until the trade deadline. If they are close, Jack will make the moves that will move the club forward another couple of steps. He is not afraid to wheel and deal players, and as this Hall trade demonstrates he’s not emotionally tied to the players that he acquires. So just cuz Kotch is the starting 1b now, does not mean that he will be come October.

    Sorry, I need to keep my responses shorter.

    • FelixFanChris420

      Don’t apologize for the long post, I love talking basesball, especially when the other party knows what they are talking about.

      You’re right that alot of people weren’t excited about Branyan when he first got here, but we all knew he had power, which we lacked at the time, which is what made me like that move.

      There is more than one way to win, however you need to at least have a guy that can get you that 3 run bomb when you are down, 1B was our best hope for getting that kind of player, and I really think Jack blew it here (if things stay as they are right now).

      As far as having his play disrupted by trade, thats part of the buisness that is baseball, if you are going to let a trade effect you to the point that you completely fall off the map offensively, I seriously start to question your mental toughness. I mean how is he going to react if Wak has to light him up for poor performance, or cut into his playing time? Is he going to sulk and be mopey and not perform while bringing the atmosphere in the club house down or is he going to man up like he’s got a pair and just go out and play ball? So far in his career, when met with adversity, he goes in the tank.

      • petermag

        “3 run bomb”
        agreed. But he’s not out there right now. I want Pujols, Arod, Vlad in his prime, Teixera. That’s ideal. But if theres anything we mariners fans should know it’s that just because you want that stud 3/4 hole guy, doesnt mean we should overpay for him, which we would have to do at this point. The guy you are describing sounds like the guy we signed in 2004/2005. His name was Sexson. I really think that this is the last guy you add to put your org over the top. That MAY happen come July trade deadline.

        “play disrupted by trade, thats part of the buisness that is baseball”
        Yes, he’s a professional. But these are human beings. If someone moves to a new company every 6 months its doubtful that they will hit their stride. Also, it can slow down their development if they’re younger like Kotch and then they go through a bunch of coaches who are telling them different stuff. I think it’s just human behavior. I’m not excusing it. But if he was 30 years old, and had this track record it would be a different story. All this happened while we was younger. I think he could perform similarly to 2007. And I’d be very happy with that.

        “adversity, goes in the tank”
        I’ve met people who were like that in their younger years who “grew up” when they were older due to circumstances theyve run through in life. Including myself! (31y/o) This guy was an elite prospect at one time. He finally breaks through in 2007. He starts off strong in 2008. Goes into a slump in June and then bam he’s traded for Teixeira. And he’s had no consistency since that slump at the age of 24. Dude was young!

        • FelixFanChris420

          “The guy you are describing sounds like the guy we signed in 2004/2005. His name was Sexson.”

          Sexson was actually as advertised and earned his money the first 2 years he was here.

          Plus, a guy like Delgado, coming off of injury could be had on a relatively cheap one year deal without giving up any players currently in the system, and he has an OBP that is not only almost 50 points higher than Kotchman, in far more PA, but he can also hit for power and hit the same doubles into the gaps that Kotchman can.

  • sodomojo95

    Let me interject in this debate, if I may.

    “Think of this team as MLB’s version of the Bears super bowl team. Great defense with a terrible offense run by rex grossman”

    First, let me just point out we should not aspire to be the 2007 Bears because they lost badly in the superbowl, but Brian Urlacher is a beast.

    But back to baseball. I disagree with FelixFan with the assertion that “you need to at least have a guy that can get you that 3 run bomb.” Although the 3 run bomb is entertaining for fans, it is not necessary to winning. Power is an overvalued asset. Conventional GMs and casual baseball fans would agree that to some degree HRs=wins, but Jack Z is not your typical GM. It’s clear Jack is building a team on pitching, defense, and run prevention, while forming a lineup with high OBP hitters, that can hit linedrives and get you your two run double and RBI single. Ultimately having a lineup that manufactures runs in that way is less sexy than having a lineup that hits your three run homer, but it just as effective and much more reliable.

    • FelixFanChris420

      sodomojo,

      I’m not saying you need to have a line-up full of immobile, defensively inept 40 HR hitters to win, but you absolutely DO need at least one guy that can hit them out. How many times do you think we are going to be able to walk and single our way out of a 3-run hole in the 8th or 9th inning?

      • http://proballnw.com Jon

        That’s the beef I have with your stance as well. Yes, I would prefer to have a ‘bopper’ in the middle of the lineup, but it is absolutely not imperative. You are stating this as if it’s fact, but it really isn’t. Does it make it easier? Sure. Would I prefer Branyan to Kotchman (ignoring injuries for now), absolutely. But I don’t think having one home run hitter is going to change much.

        As the team is constructed now (with Kotchman at 1B) there are no bad fielders (one average/slightly below average in Lopez, plus defenders at all other positions) and two true blue aces at the top of the rotation. They have a lot of high-ish OBP guys that are going to get on base and are going to get guys in. And they don’t need to get that many in.

        The M’s have a nice power balance too. No, they don’t have that 30+ HR guy, but they have ton of guys that can give you double digit homers. If there’s any one thing Lopez does well, it is hit home runs. Gutierrez had 18 last year. Milton Bradley is good for ~15 if he stays healthy. Griffey will hit his fair share. Adam Moore has some nice punch behind the plate. It’s not like we’ve got a lineup of Jack Wilsons. And I doubt this is complete, a guy like Luke Scott or Xavier Nady (someone who can play 1B and LF) still make sense (Nady more than Scott at this point, because of handedness), and they’d add plenty more punch.

        • FelixFanChris420

          I certainly respect what you are saying Jon, and you are right that we do have alot of guys that could put up double digit HRs. I just would feel 100% better if we had one guy in the line-up that could put ‘em up quick. I’m also not a fan of having a 1B that puts up a SLG% almost 30 points lower than the leadoff guy. If Jack wants to have a bunch of solid OBP hitters without power, why not just go with Carp, who is cheaper and younger? It just seems to me that we gave up Hall (who is by no means great, but is a fantastic bench player to have, IMO) and another warm body (PTBNL) for a guy that IF he can get righted again might help us out…whereas Carp (though not a great defender) could put up similar numbers at the plate for far less money and zero losses player-wise.

          • http://proballnw.com Jon

            But Kotchman may have not cost any money (see the second to last update). When the details come in we can reassess the situation, but given that we just gave up Hall and a scrub catcher (from what Prospect Insider is reporting) you basically have to view it in a vacuum. Kotchman > Carp, even if it’s not by much. And if money stays about the same, the M’s aren’t blocked from picking up LaRoche or whoever if/when the prices come down.

            • FelixFanChris420

              Thats part of the problem though, how do we KNOW Kotchman is better than Carp when Carp hasn’t been given a chance to play, they appear to be similar players offensively, and while Kotchman clearly has the edge defensively, defense at 1B isn’t the hardest thing in the world to learn. I just feel we are a better team with Hall on the bench and Carp taking the spot currently occupied by Kotchman while playing for the league minimum. I mean we went out and traded for the guy last year (Carp), lets see what he can do before we go shelling out more money AND players for a guy that is basically the same player?

              Does this signify that they don’t think Carp is going to amount to anything?

            • http://proballnw.com Jon

              I understand what you’re saying, I really do. And I’d like to see what Carp can do. But he doesn’t have enough upside to risk playing him in a year where you’re trying to win. At best, he’s a little better hitter than Kotchman. But Kotchman we already know. He’s a known quantity. If Carp fails, then what? Who replaces him? Then you’re stuck with Hannahan, a good glove with even less offense than Kotchman, and your bench gets put in a tricky situation.

              In the end though, I think it’s being blown out of proportion. We gained Kotchman, lost Hall. That is about as minor as it gets on the big league roster. No need to be upset, especially when we don’t know what this might lead to.

    • petermag

      “Bears lost the Super Bowl”
      Yeah, but at least they got to one. Baby steps my friends. 2 years ago this was a franchise in disarray with little hope from the farm system. Now, they will be considered in discussion for division title. That’s crazy growth in a short time. If you try to rush the process you end up trading away the farm for short term gains that may blow up. (Bedard)

      Again, Jack’s not done. lets wait to see if another #3 pitcher comes in and who the hitter is that is brought in. The Kotchman move is a short term move in order to make sure we are not obligated to overpay.

  • sodomojo95

    Well it’s hard to argue if you’re assuming hitting a HR is easier than hitting a double. I think what you absolutely DO need are guys that get on base. The bottom line is there are three outs every inning and in order to score runs you need guys that avoid getting out. Ultimately how the runs get across doesn’t really matter.

    It’s also interesting to note that Hall was our only RH bat off the bench (minus one of Johnson/Moore). I guess we’re either really building a bench that suits SafeCo or we don’t believe in R/L splits. Or I guess the other alternative could be the fact that the bench isn’t complete. If you pencil
    in Bradley in LF, Griffey at DH, Kotchman at 1B, and Moore at C, our bench is Hannahan, Langerhans, and Johnson. So I guess there’s one spot available for a Vlad/Dye type? Maybe?

    • FelixFanChris420

      sodomojo,

      we DO need guys that get onbase, and both Delgado and LaRoche get on base better than Kotchman(in far more ABs), hit for power and don’t cost us any warm bodies.

      Branyan also gets onbase about as good as Kotchman (.331 to .337, though Branyan has about 800 more ABs) and hits for power and again doesn’t cost us a warm body.

      If Kotchman was SIGNED to be a back-up, I wouldn’t care as much, but he was traded for (and we still have to go to arby with him) and it looks like he is going to start…to me this is a huge problem

  • FelixFanChris420

    Jon,

    For some reason it wouldn’t let me reply directly to your post (too many replies to the original post maybe?)

    Anyways, I see your point about if Carp fails, but don’t you think we could go out and get someone on the cheap (like we just did with Kotchman) IF that were to happen?

    Also, is this trade pretty much a done deal pending physicals, or do those of us that absolutely hate it still have some hope of it not happening?

    • http://proballnw.com Jon

      Yeah, the threads don’t go very deep, which is probably for the best considering the narrow space we’re working with…

      Kotchman is scheduled to be in Seattle tomorrow I believe. It’s happening.

      Would you feel better if he was platooned with a Xavier Nady-type that could play a little LF and DH as well? (I still prefer Luke Scott in a similar role, but the M’s are ridiculously left handed right now)

  • FelixFanChris420

    I would feel better with Scott or Nady starting at 1B fulltime while Kotchman rots on the bench, but I doubt that will happen LOL So, I guess the answer to your question would be yes.

    Personally, and I’ve said it all offseason, I’d be a huge fan of signing Carlos Delgado to a 1 year deal loaded with incentives and having Carp to back him up in the event of an injury.

  • sodomojo95

    Going back to your previous post, what do Branyan, LaRoche, and Delgado have in common? Well other than all of them being older and more expensive than Kotchman, they are all below average at 1B defensively, while Kotchman has shown he can pick it (to the tune of an 11.1 UZR last year).

    Delgado is 37 going on 38 and just had hip surgery. Branyan is 35 and has back problems. And LaRoche just rejected 2 yr/$17M from the Giants and has been rumored to be demanding 3 yr/$30M.

    Kotchman is younger, cheaper, healthier, and (when factoring defense) better than all of those options

    • FelixFanChris420

      Delgado is comingg off of injury, which is why he could be had on a cheaper one year deal. He’s also a left handed hitting OBP machine with power when healthy. And its not like he had his hip replaced, from what I understand he had the same injury that A-Rod had, and A-Rod seemed to be just fine when he came back.

      Kotchman is better than all of them defensively, but not enough to make up for the huge falloff between Kotchman and the rest from an offensive standpoint, especially considering we are talking about firstbasemen…if we were talking about SS, then you would have a point there.

  • sodomojo95

    Defense is defense is defense. Having a good defensive 1B is just as important, if not more than having a good defensive SS. The slick fielding SS might make Web Gems on BBTN, but the 1B is involved in more plays everygame and his defense is crucial.

    Also I think you’re really overvaluing your “warm body.”

    Player A: .201/.258/.338, K rate of 35.9%
    Player B: .268/.339/.382, K rate of 10.9%

    Both play above average defense. Who do you choose?

    • FelixFanChris420

      Actually, the “warmbody” I was refering to was the prospect we’ll be giving up.

      Do you honestly believe that a good fielder at 1B has the same value as a good fielder at SS?

      Do you also believe that a 1B who hits 40 HR has the same value as a SS that hits 40 HR?

      I’m not trying to be rude to you sodo, but I honestly think you are severly overrating defense at 1B

  • sodomojo95

    I’m not trying to be rude to you either, but I honestly think you are severly overrating power and severly underrating defense. Using defensive statistics we can actual calculate how many runs a players defense was worth. Kotchman’s defense was worth 7.6 runs. With defensive metrics, when I said defense is defense is defense, I really meant runs are runs are runs. Whether they’re produced offensively or defensively doesn’t matter. Whether they’re produced by your 1B or your SS doesn’t matter. Usually more production is expected from your 1B because the position is easier to field than SS, but the notion that you can put anyone with a bat at 1B is the biggest misconception in baseball – aside from the value of the three run homer. Comparing the value of defense at 1B to the value of a 40HR season is really quite silly. And it actually somewhat undermines your argument. Yes it is rare to have a SS hit 40HR, but it’s also rare to have a defensive whiz at 1B. But that’s only because people who don’t understand the value of defense put someone like Adam Dunn at 1B. But don’t get me wrong, Adam Dunn at 1B is a lot less detrimental defensively than Adam Dunn at SS. I would never put Adam Dunn at SS because, as I said before, there is no doubt playing defense at SS is harder than playing defense at 1B. But that’s not what we’re arguing. We’re talking about value. So, in short, my answer is yes. Yes, I do believe having a good fielder at 1B has the same value as a good fielder at SS. Runs are runs are runs, whether saved defensively at 1B or SS. Ultimately, I think you really hate the Kotchman trade because you don’t truly understand the value of his defense.

  • sodomojo95

    Wow that was long. Sorry about that. And the sentence that begins “With defensive metrics” was supposed to read as “With defensive metrics, we can compare Casey Kotchman’s defensive value to Jack Wilson’s defensive value. Jack Wilson was worth 14 runs defensively at SS. Jack Wilson was better at his trade, playing SS, than Casey Kotchman was at his, playing 1B. But both are valuable assets to the team in run prevention. It wouldn’t matter if Casey Kotchman were a +14 defender and Jack Wilson were a +7 defender. They combined would be a +21 asset”
    These numbers are runs above replacement level BTW. Sorry I got sidetracked and forgot to mention Jack Wilson. Again, I don’t mean to be rude either, I just want you to open your eyes up to the value of defense so you can fairly evaluate the Kotchman trade. And if the warm body you were worrying about was the PTBNL, then you have no reason to worry. The post says exactly that

  • petermag

    Jon,

    Not sure why my picture doesnt upload. Hmm.

  • dmojr

    Glad to hear it wont be Baron.

  • wazzy

    Time for a follow up move to get a left fielder? Maybe trade one of our bullpen arms for someone?