Ben Sheets

Jason A. Churchill of Prospect Insider tweets:

Teams dropping out of Sheets running: LAD, LAA, BOS, MIL, PHIL, Cubs, too … Asking price still $6-plus mil guaranteed. Sea, NYM the faves

That is encouraging on a couple fronts.  For one, the Mariners appear to be one of the last teams standing.  Secondly, his asking price appears to have dropped from $10MM guaranteed down to $6MM guaranteed, which is much more palatable.  The bad news is that the Mets are still in there, and as I’ve mentioned earlier they might be the one team that is willing to outbid everyone else given the pressure put on them and their propensity for overbidding.

$6MM plus incentives for Sheets and I’d be pretty ecstatic.  Scroll down a few posts for more thoughts on Sheets.

Josh Willingham

When the Washington Nationals were overflowing with outfielders and in the midst of another 100 loss season last year Willingham was a guy that a lot of us wanted Seattle to make a play for.  He seemed less available for the 2010 season with a Willingham-Nyjer Morgan-Elijah Dukes outfield looking like a lock, but it appears like he could be back on the block.  ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted recently that “The Nationals have again put Josh Willingham back out on the market,” going on to say that moving him would allow them to put Dunn back in the outfield.  Funny, considering that Dunn is historically atrocious out there, but not the most surprising move ever considering it’s, well, the Nationals.  It would only get more hilarious if they’re considering this because they want Mike Jacobs, who they’re rumored to be in on.

But their disaster is none of our concern, so back to Willingham.  The soon to be 31 year old can play not-terrible defense in left field and probably some first base.  He had a solid year with the stick last season, hitting .260/.367/.496 (and his career numbers aren’t much lower).  He works the counts and has some legitimate power.  Willingham would be a great addition to the Mariners whether the team wanted to let him be an everyday player or platoon him with the Langerhans, Bradley, Kotchman, Griffey mish-mash.  Matthew at Lookout Landing has more on Willingham here.

The payroll

All offseason people have been trying to calculate just how much money the Mariners have to spend.  Of course, that is impossible to figure out unless you assume that the 2010 payroll is exactly the same as it was last year.  Since 2006, the Mariners have seen payroll swings of +$18M, +$11M, -$18M.  I’ve been trying to warn about this here and there, though I had hoped that if anything GM Jack Zduriencik would be able to sell the suits on a $10M (or so) bump.  That may not be the case. Shannon Drayer, Thursday:

So what remains? From everything I have heard from the end of last season to today the budget will be less this year than last. One baseball source backed this up saying today that the Mariners most likely “have a little left, but not much.”

Zduriencik, visibly annoyed, used the end of the Cliff Lee presser to address the payroll speculation, saying that he will not reveal the payroll and that there is no way for anyone outside of the organization to know how much they’ll be spending.

If payroll is that tight, any additional moves will have be made efficiently, like the speculated move below.  That said, for all we know there could be the speculated $9-10MM left or more.  It’s a mystery.

Jose Lopez trade rumors and speculation

Lopez trade speculation has been rampant all offseason among fans, seeing that Lopez is not the type of player Don Wakamatsu and Zduriencik seem to prefer and a semi-valuable trade chip.  But of course that doesn’t mean the Mariners will jettison without reason.  They recognize his value.  He’s a league average second baseman who is dirt cheap.  That is great to have.  That said, it had to be assumed that with other dirt cheap league average second basemen on the market the Mariners would look for a team willing to give up something valuable for Lopez, banking on his upside (if they think he has any. I think he has some, but not as much as you’d expect out of a mid-20s player who just put up a 25 homer season.  More on that in a later post, perhaps).

Orlando Hudson, Felipe Lopez and Adam Kennedy are guys that should come cheap and can provide league average performance at second base.

Now that ESPN’s Buster Olney has added something a little more substantial than “he doesn’t fit the mold” (“The Mariners have been working on possible trades involving Jose Lopez”), let’s take a closer look at some possibilities.

USS Mariner’s Dave Cameron was on the radio the other day (before the Olney blurb) and said that he expects Seattle to trade Jose Lopez for a pitcher or left fielder and then sign Orlando Hudson or another solid second baseman.  The fit Cameron has been pushing for much of the offseason is the one with the Minnesota Twins, with LHP Francisco Liriano the target, so let’s start there.

First, payroll.  In that scenario (Lopez for Liriano and ignoring other minor pieces in a prospective deal, sign Hudson, assuming no money is changing hands), the Mariners barely add any payroll.  Lopez’s $2.3MM salary heads to Minnesota in exchange for Liriano’s $1.6MM salary,  Hudson is reportedly looking for about $8MM, which is probably unattainable, making him more likely to sign a deal similar to what he got last offseason (~$3M + incentives).  If Hudson commands a base of $3-5MM, this series of moves would only cost Seattle about $2-4MM.

Now, is Liriano the type of return you want for Lopez?  The upside is there, and he’s “done it” for short periods of time, but hasn’t put together a full season at the big league level because of injuries.  He had elbow troubles in the minor leagues and finally had Tommy John surgery after the 2006 season and missed all of 2007 and much of 2008 before coming back.  2009 was a good-not-great season for him, but his velocity was down a couple ticks, his walk rate was up and he missed some more time with a sore elbow. And while his elbow has gotten much of the attention, he’s also had some rotator cuff trouble at the time of his TJ surgery, which isn’t all that surprising when you see his mechanics in slow motion. (Note: those are pre-TJ mechanics.  He’s not as extreme now, but still risky.)

But if he can improve by just a little bit he’d be a clear upgrade over what is currently penciled into back of the rotation (Snell, Vargas/Fister/etc).  Dave at USSM wrote in December that he though Liriano makes a lot of sense, and I tend to agree based on performance and upside, though I would be very worried about bringing in an injury risk like that for a proven big league contributor.

But given that Lopez is only guaranteed money through 2010 with a 2011 option and that Hudson wouldn’t represent much of a downgrade if at all on a similarly short deal, it would be almost like getting Liriano for free.  That said, there is mixed information out there as to whether or not the Twins want to deal Liriano.  Moving him now would be a dramatic undersell, but given that they’ve made an offer to Jarrod Washburn despite a deep starting rotation hints that they’re willing to move someone (or move Liriano to the bullpen, which makes some level of sense too).  If they feel like he can regain some of his pre-TJ magic then they will likely ask for much more than his 2009-line is worth, which is probably more than just Lopez.  If another valuable piece is sent to the Twins to get it done, I would be very skeptical.

The aforementioned Washington Nationals are another possible fit.  Right now they’ve got Ian Desmond and Christian Guzman penciled in for their middle infield, but considering that they’ve been connected to free agents Hudson and Orlando Cabrera you’ve got to think they would be somewhat interested in Lopez.  The Nationals have several guys that could interest Seattle from Willingham to Dukes to Dunn to Desmond.

The Detroit Tigers are another possibility.  Right now they’ve got rookie Scott Sizemore penciled in, and seem to be okay with that.  But Lopez is cheap enough (money-wise) that they could consider him.  Ryan Raburn would be a great pickup for Seattle, though he probably fits into the Tigers’ plans a little too prominently to move.  Carlos Guillen could help Seattle’s 1B/DH/LF rotation, though the $26M owed to him over the next two seasons and Seattle’s lack of big tradeable contracts to offset are major roadblocks.

The Colorado Rockies are apparently looking to upgrade over Clint Barmes at second base and Lopez could be that guy (though not by much).  Ryan Spilbourghs and Seth Smith, a couple of spare outfielders, could be of interest to the Mariners.  I’d love to see Jorge De La Rosa on the Mariners, but I don’t see them moving him without being blown over now that he’s starting to break out a little bit.

The Kansas City Royals have some decent second base depth but they’re worth mentioning.  First of all, they’re one of the teams that would probably value Lopez the highest.  Secondly, they apparently would like to get rid of Alberto Callaspo because of his off-the-field antics and negative clubhouse presence (so they say), and Chris Getz isn’t particularly exciting.  If they find someone to take Callaspo the Mariners could be interested in Mitch Maier or Alex Gordon.

(Note: If I’m the Houston Astros I’d be after Lopez.  Is there a player that is a better fit for that park?  There isn’t much of a match there, though.)