We’re at the point in the off-season where much of the roster analysis of the team turns from an outlook of whom the M’s might acquire to how the organization is likely to utilize the talent on hand. There are still rumors about potential free agents, and if Prince Fielder were to sign, that would certainly alter the season’s outlook. Still, analysts are beginning to assess the roster as is, and no matter which direction the club goes on Fielder, there are some players that most people would be comfortable penciling in to significant roles. Strangely, one of those players is Casper Wells.

First, I should acknowledge that there are reasons to be optimistic about Wells in 2012. Wells was the oldest and most developed of the collection of prospects that roamed the M’s outfield last season. Wells hit .237/.317/.442 last season, and he managed a .431 slugging percentage after the trade, no small feat for a right hander playing in Safeco. He also played well in the outfield and even looked comfortable in his limited time as a center fielder.

Wells’ season looks even better if you only look at the stats he compiled before August 17th, the game in which he got drilled in the nose by a Brandon Morrow fastball. Look:

Before getting hit in the face:
.280/.351/.516, ten homers, forty-eight strikeouts in 182 plate-appearances (26%)

After:
.125/.222/.250, one homer, twenty-three strikeouts in sixty-three plate appearances (36%)

Of course, it’s not really a good thing that Wells hit significantly better before the beaning. Though he only missed one game immediately after getting hit, Wells struggled mightily upon returning to the lineup and he eventually bowed out of the season in mid-September with vertigo-like symptoms. Wells went as far to say that the symptoms were making it “a little dangerous out there,” adding a confession to statistics that suggested Wells was operating at significantly less than 100%. When he was shut down for the season, Wells told the press that he would be fine, that he was sitting as a precaution, and that he still planned to play winter ball in Venezuela.

Here’s where the situation gets weird: despite the seemingly obvious link between the hit by pitch and a slump at the plate, Wells has said he isn’t sure when the vertigo like symptoms started. Furthermore, nobody in the organization has suggested that Wells’ problems began after he got drilled. I’m no doctor, I’m certainly not close enough to the situation to speak intelligently on the matter, and for all I know, Wells was dizzy well before his four game home run streak. Still, there does seem to be a pretty clear deviation point in his season’s statistics, and even if he did feel some vertigo-like symptoms all year, as best as I can tell, they were unreported until after the beaning. At the very least, it appears extremely likely that the HBP had SOME impact on the rest of his season.

Very little has come out this winter about Wells’ health, though it appears he shelved his plan to play winter ball in Venezuela. It is that last bit that concerns me the most. With the caveat that I’m nowhere close to an expert (or even all that knowledgeable) on head injuries, I’m always a little worried when a player hurts his noggin and doesn’t take the field for awhile. Seemingly every week there is new information about the horrible consequences and surprisingly long recovery times from head injuries in sports like football and hockey. Combined with an anecdotal story like Justin Morneau* from baseball, and it’s enough to make you wonder if Wells is truly healthy even now (to say nothing of his general health if the injury is significantly worse than reported.)

*- Morneau was a leading MVP candidate in 2010 when he suffered a concussion in early July. He didn’t return for the rest of the season, wasn’t fully cleared for the start of Spring Training in 2011, and once he did make it back, he played in just sixty-nine games and hit only four home runs. 

For all I know, Wells is perfectly fine, working out on his own, and ready to compete for a full time job in left field as soon as he reports to Spring Training. I happily admit that this post is (mostly) blind speculation. However, combining his statistics after getting beaned with what we know generally about head injuries and his decision to not play winter ball in Venezuela, it seems like there is a chance that Wells might not be ready to play quite yet. Much of the discourse of potential roster additions has touched on the desire to acquire a left-handed bat to complement Wells in left field. Perhaps we should keep in mind the possibility that the M’s should be in the market for a left fielder- of any kind.