The market for Prince Fielder has been weird. Teams haven’t showered Fielder with gifts and ridiculous contract offers, which is probably a sign that the few remaining organizations who were behind the curve on player valuation finally get it. Not only that, but the pool of suitors for the 27-year-old has been smaller than anyone expected.

The vast majority of teams have an issue that precludes them from seriously chasing after Fielder. The Mets’ team ownership is downsizing payroll. The Dodgers seem reticent to guarantee big money to anyone this offseason, which is not surprising considering their unfortunate management situation. The Rays got Carlos Pena, the Reds have Joey Votto, and so on and so forth.  In my mind, there are only six teams that have a legitimate shot to sign Prince.

Tigers: The Tigers would have to up their payroll significantly to sign Fielder, but they just lost Victor Martinez for the entire 2012 season. If GM Dave Dombrowski feels pressure to replace Martinez’s bat – despite claims that he’s targeting multiple small-scale improvements to the roster – he might do some retooling and obtain the payroll space to sign Prince.

Nationals: Frankly, I don’t know how much sense Fielder makes for the Nats, who already have Mike Morse (3.4 WAR and 31 home runs) at first base for the next two years. Morse is one year older than Fielder, and he’s definitely way cheaper. The Nats also have Adam LaRoche under contract for 2012 with an option for 2013. For a team without the luxury of the designated hitter, the Nationals actually seem like a pretty lousy fit for Fielder.  The team has the money to sign Fielder, though, regardless of whether he’s a good fit for the ballclub – and that’s ultimately the most important variable.

Cubs: The Cubs just traded for 1B Anthony Rizzo and publicly claimed that they weren’t ready to commit so much money to one player as the team rebuilds.  That being said, they seem to have the payroll space to sign Fielder, so you never know.

Rangers: It sounds like the Rangers want Fielder, but I don’t know if GM Jon Daniels will be able to pull the trigger on a deal.  Texas has a team payroll over 125 million, and it’s probably going to end up over 130 by the time arbitration hearings are over.  If I’m Daniels, I’m hesitant to raise my team payroll to 155 million – if the option is even available.  I’m suspicious that the Rangers have the financial flexibility they’re rumored to have, since the numbers of their TV deal are about half what they were initially reported to be.  Then again, if I’m Prince Fielder, I take one look at the dimensions of that ballpark and sign a contract with the Rangers.

Mariners: Here is a fresh topic that has not been discussed much! (This is sarcasm.) The Mariners have reportedly been willing to commit the most guaranteed money to Prince Fielder, and they appear to have room for a ~16-18 million increase in payroll for 2012.  The M’s already have Jesus Montero at catcher and DH, and Justin Smoak at first, but they could feasibly do something like this:

Fielder gets 50 games at DH and 100 games at 1st.  Montero gets 70 games at catcher and 70 games at DH.  Smoak gets 70 games at 1st and 20 games at DH.

Under this arrangement, the M’s would get 90 games in which Smoak, Fielder, and Montero would all be in the lineup.  Signing Fielder would, of course, prevent the Mariners from signing a #2 or #3 starter, although Danny Hultzen could feasibly reach the majors as early as May.  I would not recommend this course of action to the Mariners, as signing the overweight first baseman is not a great long-term solution for this team, but the Mariners don’t listen to me!

Marlins: I have no idea what’s happening in Miami right now, but I imagine it looks something like this:

In all seriousness, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Marlins turned out to have a bunch of money left to spend, despite what team president Dave Samson claims.

Conclusion: I think Fielder’s going to end up a National, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he joins the Mariners or the Rangers.