The trade isn’t finalized quite yet, but all reports are saying that Michael Pineda and pitching prospect Jose Campos have been traded to New York for Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi. There are stray rumors that others (including Ivan Nova, who would be a real coup) may be involved in the deal as well, but this appears to be the core of the trade. I find it very amusing that amid the immense Prince Fielder speculation this off-season, the roster just got overhauled with virtually no rumors preceding the deal’s announcement until news of the trade blew up on Twitter. But that’s not really important right now.

What is important is that the Mariners just traded their second best pitcher for a hitting prospect that is instantly the best power threat on the team and probably the most talented hitter in the organization. While much of Montero’s allure is tied up in his potential, he was brilliant in limited at-bats during his brief major league stint last season. He’s also major league ready: he spent 2011 in Triple-A simply because the Yankees didn’t have a place to play him regularly. No matter how anyone feels about who won the trade, there isn’t much doubt that Montero can really hit. Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus’ minor league maven rated him the number one prospect in the Yankees system last year and scouts universally praise his ability to hit for average as well as power. 

The concern is that the M’s have lost a lot of security by dealing Pineda for a talented, but unproven player. It certainly does hurt to lose a star like Pineda, but I think the M’s can actually absorb the loss. First, for as good of a season as he had, there are still a couple of reasons to be conservative with Pineda’s projection going forward. He has had a few injuries in previous years, which is troublesome considering the attrition rate among pitching prospects.

More troubling is that Pineda’s changeup never really developed, rendering him a two-pitch pitcher. Obviously he enjoyed some success with only two pitches, but there’s a reason most pitchers have a deeper arsenal, and if either his fastball or slider lose any bite, he’d be in line for some regression. Beyond Pineda himself, the M’s have a pretty deep stable of pitching prospects (Danny Hultzen, James Paxton, and Taijuan Walker are the most decorated) and they already have a natural advantage with developing pitchers, on account of Safeco Field. So yes, losing Pineda is a blow, but you have to give some to get some, and the M’s got a pretty good prospect in Montero.

There will be time for more nuanced analysis of this deal throughout the rest of the off-season, but for now, I have a couple more bullet point thoughts:

• First, with Montero joining Mike Carp and Justin Smoak as first base/DH types on the team, you’d have to think that the M’s are out of the Prince Fielder sweepstakes. Jack Z has been known to surprise everyone before, so you can’t rule anything out, but Fielder doesn’t seem to make sense for this club anymore.
• I think it will be real interesting to see whether Fielder or Montero has a more productive next six years. I’d lean towards Fielder, particularly if Montero is only a DH, but I’d bet it’s actually fairly close. Certainly in terms of a WAR/$, Montero is a much, much, much more appealing addition to the lineup.
• Most reports about Montero’s defense behind the plate are negative to the point that many have already started calling him a designated hitter. I’d assume the Mariners will try him as a catcher initially, but I wouldn’t expect him to stick there. However, after watching Rob Johnson and Miguel Olivo for a couple of years, I’m not sure we as fans would notice much of a drop-off if they did decide to play Montero behind the plate.
• Hector Noesi, the other player in the deal, could compete for a rotation spot in 2012. He was a starter all the way up through the minors, and he even started a couple games for New York last season. He’s not much of a strike out pitcher, but he fits the mold of a control specialist, fourth starter type. After briefly scanning his minor league numbers and a couple scouting reports, it looks like he compares well with Blake Beavan. He walks more hitters than Beavan, but he also misses more bats, and will thus be a little less reliant on batted ball variability.
• It hurts to lose Jose Campos, but again, there is a lot of pitching depth in the minor league system, and Campos is years away from Seattle. He has a great arm, but it’s just too early to rigorously evaluate what the M’s traded away here.

That’s all I’ve got for now. More coming…