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At this point, the 2010 roster is more or less set, barring some shuffling at the back end of the bench and bullpen. We’re all hopeful for an excellent 2010 season, and rightfully so. General Manager extraordinaire Jack Zduriencik has been extremely aggressive in his efforts to improve the roster, and it appears as though it should pay off.

For now, however, we’ve entered into those last couple of weeks before Spring Training starts, when the news starts to dwindle along with the list of available free agents (aside some strange mini-drama around Chien-Ming Wang and the so-called “debate” he’s had between the Dodgers and Nationals). So what are we going to do with all this extra time?

Oh, what the hell. Let’s look at the next offseason.

Obviously, what the Mariners do in the offseason will depend greatly on how the team performs in 2010, as well as how some of the upper-level prospects develop. For reference, let’s assume the Mariners wind up at roughly the 88.5 wins Matthew over at Lookout Landing recently projected. If his projections hold roughly true, that would mean the team has a great chance at carrying the AL West, and at least an outside shot at the Wild Card depending on how the AL East shakes out.

To see what holes the Mariners could have to fill, let’s first take a look at who they have as possible impending free agents (position and 2011 season age in parenthesis, option numbers per Cot’s Contracts):

Jose Lopez (2B, 27) Team option for $4.5M or $250k buyout
Eric Byrnes (OF, 35)
Cliff Lee (LHP, 31)
Ian Snell (RHP, 29) Team option for $6.75M
Ken Griffey, Jr (DH, 41)
Ryan Langerhans (OF, 31)
Erik Bedard (LHP, 32) Mutual option for $8M with escalators

At first glance, the team seems likely to pick up the options on Lopez and Snell. It is feasible that Snell’s performance could fall off a cliff, but even if he’s only around average that’s a very affordable option. Lopez’s option is incredibly affordable for the production he can give the team, but there is an outside potential for the team to decline it if they feel that Dustin Ackley is ready for the second base job on a full-time basis in 2011. The club could also accept Lopez’s option and attempt to trade him, although their reported efforts on that front this offseason have not gone well.

Because of the organization’s depth in the outfield, with Michael Saunders knocking at the door and others not that far behind, Byrnes is almost a certainty not to return and Langerhans is unlikely at best. Griffey seems likely to retire after the season, especially if the team can return to the post-season.

Bedard is not all that likely to return without an extension. With his option being of a mutual nature if either side declines it, he will be a free agent. If he doesn’t come back healthy or performs poorly, the Mariners will decline, and if he comes back strong, Bedard will likely decline it to pursue a larger contract.

Lee is the big question mark. While he seems to be open to the idea of signing an extension and staying here, the Mariners already have one big-ticket starter in Felix Hernandez and may not necessarily be able to afford him. If the M’s feel they can’t retain Lee, they’d be more than happy to accept the draft picks they’d get from his fairly certain Type-A status. That said, it would be a real boost to the team going forward if they could retain his services for a few more years.

There’s also a number of players in different stages of the arbitration process. Casey Kotchman (1B, 28) will be entering his final season of eligibility. Ryan Garko (1B, 31), Brandon League (RHP, 28), and David Aardsma (RHP, 29)will be in their second year of three eligible years. Ryan Rowland-Smith (LHP, 28), Garrett Olson (LHP, 27), and Jack Hannahan (IF, 31) will all be entering their first arbitration years. Kotchman and Garko, potential platoon partners in 2010, are both possible non-tender candidates, depending both on their own 2010 performance and that of their opposite number. Olson isn’t even certain to make the team in 2010, so his status for this list is uncertain at best. It seems likely, however, that he would have to turn in a solid year to even be considered for a 2011 contract, given the depth of left-handed pitching close to the majors. The others are virtual certainties to receive contracts.

So where will that leave the Mariners as far as holes to fill? At first glance, they’ll have upwards of two rotation slots to fill, as well as potential vacancies at first, second, left field, and DH (depending on how Milton Bradley gets used). Of course, bench spots and most of the bullpen spots are always fungible, so plenty of movement is to be expected there.

How might the Mariners take care of those holes? What other moves could they make to improve the team? All that (and more?) in Part Two, coming soon…