Branyan and his Falling Price Tag
by Scott Weber ~ February 9th, 2010
With reports flying around that Russell Branyan wanted a 3 year, $20 million deal (via ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick), the buzz seems to be that Branyan overplayed his hand by turning down the initial 1+1 offer from the Mariners. Maybe that’s true, maybe it isn’t – Crasnick is the only person who’s reported it so far – but regardless, Branyan’s stock seems to be rock bottom right now, and it’s getting very late in the free agent game. Most teams have 1st base and DH covered and with Branyan’s back issues, I doubt anybody wants to put Branyan back at 3B or in the outfield to play every day. Essentially, despite hitting 31 homers in 2/3 of a season, Branyan is looking at another 1 year deal that may not ensure a starting role.
Should the Mariners give Branyan another call?
When the M’s acquired Casey Kotchman, it seemed like the door was firmly shut on Branyan, and rightfully so. But when the M’s acquired RH 1B Ryan Garko, it got me thinking. Garko is here for his ability to hit lefties well, but isn’t completely inadequate against right handed pitching. Kotchman is a huge question mark offensively, and (in my opinion) M’s fans expecting an OPS north of .800 are going to be sorely disappointed. Kotchman has a great glove, but for a first baseman his bat is well below average. Yes, there’s potential there – but it’s worrisome.
So enter Branyan. Obviously, this team can’t carry 3 1B/DH type players – so something’s got to give. Last season, Z acquired Aaron Heilman only to trade him several weeks later to the Cubs. Don’t read too much into all the comments from the front office about Kotchman so far – remember that the M’s brought Heilman to Fanfest in 2009 just before they traded him away. Nobody is untouchable. In this potential reunion with Branyan, Kotchman is going to need to be traded, and that’s just about the only way it’s going to get done. I can’t predict the market or why teams don’t want Branyan, but I’m guessing a lot has to do with his health and age – if one of those teams prefers Kotchman, I’d pick up the phone. Maybe Kotchman brings back a reliever or an upgrade at utility infield – who knows. See if Branyan’s now willing to accept a 1 year, $4 million deal with a club option for 2011. He’s seen the market, he’s seen his value – it can’t be much more than that. Maybe he comes even cheaper. I don’t know what the offers have been so it’s hard to speculate.
That would leave the Mariners with a 1B situation of RH Garko and LH Branyan. That’s one hell of a cheap and effective platoon situation, which the M’s were already planning to do with Kotchman and Garko. If Branyan’s healthy enough, start him against lefties as well. Otherwise, it can be natural days off for him and Garko fills in more than adequately. It’s a big offensive upgrade right away, but also a big defensive downgrade. The positive here is that while Branyan is likely to miss some time with his nagging injuries, Garko has held down a full time 1B job before and he can easily fill that role for the M’s again if need be.
It’s a risky proposition and the net effect is questionable. The impact is up for debate, depending on how much you value defense at 1B, and also how much you believe in Kotchman’s ability to bounce back. My opinion is that Kotchman is who he is now – I expect about a .740 OPS from him. I’m also of the opinion that 1B is the defensive position with the least impact, and while it’s effect is certainly important, it’s not nearly as big of an impact as the other positions. Enough so that I’d be willing to stash two somewhat clunky gloves in Garko and Branyan there while saying goodbye to Kotchman.
17 Responses to Branyan and his Falling Price Tag
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment. If you don't yet have an account, please register here and join the discussion. Registration takes only a few seconds!
Jon
February 9th, 2010 at 1:29 pm
I would definitely welcome Branyan back in that scenario, but the biggest problem is the same as the Lopez/Hudson scenarios. If there is a team that needs a 2B, why wouldn’t they just sign Hudson instead of giving something up for Lopez? (As the Twins did)
Similar problem here, though there are a few variables that make it a little more plausible than Lopez/Hudson. For one, Branyan’s health issues will drop his value. Also, the expected return for Kotchman wouldn’t be much, where in trading Lopez you’re looking for a major piece.
It’ll definitely be interesting to see what happens with Branyan. Only team publicly in on Branyan at this point is the Marlins.
200tang
February 9th, 2010 at 1:39 pm
I say keep Kotchman. He’s a decent upside play and even in his ‘usual’ year he still brings a lot of value with the glove. I’m also not sure how much of an upgrade Branyan realistically brings over Kotchman. Not to mention that he’s much riskier even if Garko can hold down 1B decently enough should Branyan go down.
Scott Weber
February 9th, 2010 at 1:50 pm
It’s a gamble. Guaranteed mediocrity or up/down a win in either direction?
200tang Reply:
February 9th, 2010 at 2:02 pm
It would really depend on his back. I assume the Mariners went a different route because his back doesn’t look all that great and if that’s the case I’ll take the mediocrity, although Kotchman does have a small amount of upside.
Scott Weber
February 9th, 2010 at 2:30 pm
I think it had just as much to do with Branyan wanting a multi-year deal as it did his back, although there’s really no way to verify that.
MarinerMan6
February 9th, 2010 at 3:34 pm
I’d say that is a pretty ballsy proposition Scott but one worth thinking about. However, I have to believe given the lack of market for Branyan his back is still a major issue (despite what he says publicly). Think about it, the M’s just gave 1.5 mill. guaranteed to a starting pitcher that won’t be healthy enough to pitch until mid-season but won’t consider Branyan?? If the Ms feel better about Bedard’s health going forward than Branyan, that speaks volumes of how f*&^d up his back really is currently. To be honest I would have loved to kick Jr. to the curb and have Branyan take his spot on the roster.
Coug1990
February 9th, 2010 at 4:01 pm
Branyan was .251/.347/.520 for the 2009 season. Does anybody know what Branyan’s first and second half splits were?
gregrabble Reply:
February 9th, 2010 at 4:13 pm
First half: 79 G, 341 PA, .956 OPS, .382 OBP, 22 HR, 95 K, 45 BB
Second Half: 37 G, 164 PA, .688 OPS, .274 OBP, 9 HR, 54 K, 13 BB
A lot of that is just expected regression. His BABIP was really, really high in the first half, and that just wasn’t going to be sustainable.
The scenario presented here could potentially work out really well, but I don’t really like the idea that if Branyan gets hurt, Garko is our full time first baseman.
harrison Reply:
February 10th, 2010 at 8:23 am
You do have to take into account that some of these numbers are because of the injury rather than regression. Was there regression, of course. But, the steep regression was his back injury.
mrakbaseball
February 9th, 2010 at 6:46 pm
People are still discussing Branyan? Pitchers and catchers report next week, let’s focus on that.
200tang Reply:
February 9th, 2010 at 8:27 pm
Nothing wrong with just discussing him.
Scott Weber
February 10th, 2010 at 7:56 am
Why would we ever stop talking about potential ways to improve the team?
Coug1990
February 10th, 2010 at 8:15 am
Thanks Greg. Some of that is regression, which just shows his first half was an anomaly for him. With his back injury, the Mariners did not want to take a chance on him for what he wanted at the time and went to plan b (Kotchman).
I understand what Scott is saying, but I think the ship has sailed in regards to Branyan. I liked him, so I wish him luck whatever port he docks.
I was listening to Buster Olney on the radio yesterday and he was making the case the Mariners are really going to miss Branyan. That may or may not be true, but the Mariners survived the second half of the season with little help from him. I think that is part of the reason that Jack Z thinks he is replaceable.
BoiseM Reply:
February 10th, 2010 at 11:21 am
I won’t miss him batting second in the order behind Ichiro.
docmilo
February 10th, 2010 at 12:06 pm
Of course his BABIP was high, the balls left the park. Branyan’s numbers really took a dive when his back started hurting a few weeks before the ASB. I don’t feel that his regression was moving towards some mean. The guy was injured and that swing requires a ton of torque. I’m not saying his first half is what he will be forever, but it sure was fun to watch.
Scott Weber Reply:
February 10th, 2010 at 2:31 pm
BABIP doesn’t include home runs because they’re not technically “in play.”
Coug1990
February 11th, 2010 at 7:06 am
There is no question that the back injury robbed Branyan of his strength and was a major reason for his second half slide. But, this is his career numbers .234/.331/.491. He has been in the majors since 2000, so is the real Branyan what we saw the first half of last year or what he has done the other nine years?
My guess is the other nine years and that is why Mariners easily moved on when Branyan asked for more money than they thought he was worth.
Somehow the Mariners continued to play well in the second half of the season without getting much production from first base. Whatever the Mariners get from Kotchman and Garko this season should be more than they got from Branyan in the second half of last year.