With reports flying around that Russell Branyan wanted a 3 year, $20 million deal (via ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick), the buzz seems to be that Branyan overplayed his hand by turning down the initial 1+1 offer from the Mariners. Maybe that’s true, maybe it isn’t – Crasnick is the only person who’s reported it so far – but regardless, Branyan’s stock seems to be rock bottom right now, and it’s getting very late in the free agent game. Most teams have 1st base and DH covered and with Branyan’s back issues, I doubt anybody wants to put Branyan back at 3B or in the outfield to play every day. Essentially, despite hitting 31 homers in 2/3 of a season, Branyan is looking at another 1 year deal that may not ensure a starting role.

Should the Mariners give Branyan another call?

When the M’s acquired Casey Kotchman, it seemed like the door was firmly shut on Branyan, and rightfully so. But when the M’s acquired RH 1B Ryan Garko, it got me thinking. Garko is here for his ability to hit lefties well, but isn’t completely inadequate against right handed pitching. Kotchman is a huge question mark offensively, and (in my opinion) M’s fans expecting an OPS north of .800 are going to be sorely disappointed. Kotchman has a great glove, but for a first baseman his bat is well below average. Yes, there’s potential there – but it’s worrisome.

So enter Branyan. Obviously, this team can’t carry 3 1B/DH type players – so something’s got to give. Last season, Z acquired Aaron Heilman only to trade him several weeks later to the Cubs. Don’t read too much into all the comments from the front office about Kotchman so far – remember that the M’s brought Heilman to Fanfest in 2009 just before they traded him away. Nobody is untouchable. In this potential reunion with Branyan, Kotchman is going to need to be traded, and that’s just about the only way it’s going to get done. I can’t predict the market or why teams don’t want Branyan, but I’m guessing a lot has to do with his health and age – if one of those teams prefers Kotchman, I’d pick up the phone. Maybe Kotchman brings back a reliever or an upgrade at utility infield – who knows. See if Branyan’s now willing to accept a 1 year, $4 million deal with a club option for 2011.  He’s seen the market, he’s seen his value – it can’t be much more than that. Maybe he comes even cheaper. I don’t know what the offers have been so it’s hard to speculate.

That would leave the Mariners with a 1B situation of RH Garko and LH Branyan. That’s one hell of a cheap and effective platoon situation, which the M’s were already planning to do with Kotchman and Garko. If Branyan’s healthy enough, start him against lefties as well. Otherwise, it can be natural days off for him and Garko fills in more than adequately. It’s a big offensive upgrade right away, but also a big defensive downgrade. The positive here is that while Branyan is likely to miss some time with his nagging injuries, Garko has held down a full time 1B job before and he can easily fill that role for the M’s again if need be.

It’s a risky proposition and the net effect is questionable. The impact is up for debate, depending on how much you value defense at 1B, and also how much you believe in Kotchman’s ability to bounce back. My opinion is that Kotchman is who he is now – I expect about a .740 OPS from him. I’m also of the opinion that 1B is the defensive position with the least impact, and while it’s effect is certainly important, it’s not nearly as big of an impact as the other positions. Enough so that I’d be willing to stash two somewhat clunky gloves in Garko and Branyan there while saying goodbye to Kotchman.