We still don’t know if Erik Bedard will return to the Seattle Mariners next year, though it’s looking like he will as long as Seattle’s medical staff doesn’t find anything discouraging when they check out his shoulder.

Some fans don’t like the idea of bringing back Bedard, obviously.  A lot of this stems from the trade that brought him to Seattle.  A lot of the frustration caused by then-GM Bill Bavasi has turned into resentment for Bedard.  I understand how that could happen, but I think it’s a little ridiculous.  Bedard didn’t have anything to do with how much of the franchise’s future Bavasi traded away for a guy with a history of injuries and durability issues.  Bedard came in and did what he could, which was pitch brilliantly and until his arm was about to fall off.

I also understand how it is difficult to separate a potential re-signing from the trade.  After all, if Cliff Lee were to sign an extension with Seattle after the season, wouldn’t we see that deal as even more of a success?  But I would think that the change in management makes the differences clear.  If Bavasi was still around and he brought back Bedard under the same circumstances it would probably look like he was trying to recover a sunk cost.  It’s different with Zduriencik.  He knows that those prospects are a sunk cost, and it’s not like he cares about any moves made before his hiring anyway.  If Bedard is a Mariner in 2010, it’s because he’s a good fit for the team.

At $1.5M plus incentives, the dollar figure reported by Jim Street, Bedard is a smart pickup.  If you see him returning to his normal performance levels it’s a no brainer.

Of course, Bedard cannot be counted on to be the same guy that was worth almost as many wins above replacement in 83 innings last season as Jarrod Washburn was over the course of the entire season.  He cannot even be counted on to be a big league caliber starter at this point.  Recovering from surgery on a torn labrum is not like recovering from Tommy John surgery.  This has been a career-ender for a lot of guys.  Granted, the surgeries are becoming more and more successful, as noted in Larry Stone’s writeup on the subject, but we still don’t know what’s next for Bedard.

If Bedard experiences setback after setback, all the Mariners have to deal with is a bit of frustration and a relatively small salary.  If he can come back and pitch effectively, he could be a nice little boost for the club.  It’s simple, really.  Would you rather have Doug Fister (or whoever) from April through September, or would you rather have Fister from between April through June and Bedard from July through September?  Some will inexplicably pick the former for the stability, but they’re not thinking clearly.  As our buddy Jeff Clarke writes, Bedard was worth more last season (in terms of WAR) than Jason Vargas, Fister, Brandon Morrow and Ian Snell combined.  Granted, those negative WAR players make the argument easier, but the bottom line is that Bedard was worth 1.9 WAR while all of those guys were worth 0.3 WAR or less.  He goes on to note that “Bedard+jobshare was one of the top 25 starters in the AL.”  A nice way to put it in perspective.  Many will dismiss the idea of bringing Bedard back because it’ll be frustrating, but that simply isn’t a smart way to view the situation.

Some people aren’t fond of this development because they feel like signing Bedard stops Seattle from making a better move; that the opportunity cost of signing Bedard is Washburn or Aaron Harang or [insert pitching target here].  I doubt that, however.  Again, Bedard is no sure thing to give Seattle anything in 2010.  Seattle is not banking on Bedard, they’re gambling on him.  All of the other AL West teams have pitching gambles from Rich Harden to Ben Sheets to Scott Kazmir and Ervin Santana, and Seattle figures they may as well get their own lottery ticket.  If the money and resources are there to upgrade over the in-house back of the rotation guys, I doubt Bedard will stop them from making a move.

As far as Washburn goes, he is shit out of options.  As far as we can tell, he limited his options to three teams or retirement, the Milwaukee Brewers, Minnesota Twins and our Mariners.  The Brewers went another route, the Twins offered him a $5M contract and spent that money on Orlando Hudson when it went unaccepted, and Seattle has seemingly placed him on the backburner indefinitely.  If Washburn wants to play in 2010, he’ll have to take relative pennies from Seattle (unless Minnesota has more money than I think), in which case he’s no risk for Seattle and there is no reason not to bring him aboard. As far as the other potential trade targets, Seattle has other iffy spots in their rotation.  Snell didn’t show much promise last season and, while it’s easy to forget, Ryan Rowland-Smith missed much of the year trying to get himself right after an elbow injury.  If you’re worried about bringing in Bedard plus one other guy, don’t forget that those guys aren’t exactly reliable either.  I’m sure Seattle could find a way to get everyone in.  It would be a nice problem to have.

I love Erik Bedard.  He’s one of my favorite Mariners of the 2000s, without a doubt.  One of my favorite Mariners ever, really.  But it isn’t just my fandom that has me supporting this signing.  I find it hard to see such a deal in a negative light.  At very worst it’s a “why not?” or “it can’t hurt” deal, right?  If Bedard can’t get healthy, or can’t perform, or has any other problems, that’s too bad.  But if he can string together a handful of good starts he’ll be worth it.  If he can be a third ace for half the season and into the playoffs, even better.  I’m not counting on it, but there is no reason not to take that gamble.