Let’s Talk About Erik Bedard
by Jon ~ February 5th, 2010 at 12:09 am
We still don’t know if Erik Bedard will return to the Seattle Mariners next year, though it’s looking like he will as long as Seattle’s medical staff doesn’t find anything discouraging when they check out his shoulder.
Some fans don’t like the idea of bringing back Bedard, obviously. A lot of this stems from the trade that brought him to Seattle. A lot of the frustration caused by then-GM Bill Bavasi has turned into resentment for Bedard. I understand how that could happen, but I think it’s a little ridiculous. Bedard didn’t have anything to do with how much of the franchise’s future Bavasi traded away for a guy with a history of injuries and durability issues. Bedard came in and did what he could, which was pitch brilliantly and until his arm was about to fall off.
I also understand how it is difficult to separate a potential re-signing from the trade. After all, if Cliff Lee were to sign an extension with Seattle after the season, wouldn’t we see that deal as even more of a success? But I would think that the change in management makes the differences clear. If Bavasi was still around and he brought back Bedard under the same circumstances it would probably look like he was trying to recover a sunk cost. It’s different with Zduriencik. He knows that those prospects are a sunk cost, and it’s not like he cares about any moves made before his hiring anyway. If Bedard is a Mariner in 2010, it’s because he’s a good fit for the team.
At $1.5M plus incentives, the dollar figure reported by Jim Street, Bedard is a smart pickup. If you see him returning to his normal performance levels it’s a no brainer.
Of course, Bedard cannot be counted on to be the same guy that was worth almost as many wins above replacement in 83 innings last season as Jarrod Washburn was over the course of the entire season. He cannot even be counted on to be a big league caliber starter at this point. Recovering from surgery on a torn labrum is not like recovering from Tommy John surgery. This has been a career-ender for a lot of guys. Granted, the surgeries are becoming more and more successful, as noted in Larry Stone’s writeup on the subject, but we still don’t know what’s next for Bedard.
If Bedard experiences setback after setback, all the Mariners have to deal with is a bit of frustration and a relatively small salary. If he can come back and pitch effectively, he could be a nice little boost for the club. It’s simple, really. Would you rather have Doug Fister (or whoever) from April through September, or would you rather have Fister from between April through June and Bedard from July through September? Some will inexplicably pick the former for the stability, but they’re not thinking clearly. As our buddy Jeff Clarke writes, Bedard was worth more last season (in terms of WAR) than Jason Vargas, Fister, Brandon Morrow and Ian Snell combined. Granted, those negative WAR players make the argument easier, but the bottom line is that Bedard was worth 1.9 WAR while all of those guys were worth 0.3 WAR or less. He goes on to note that “Bedard+jobshare was one of the top 25 starters in the AL.” A nice way to put it in perspective. Many will dismiss the idea of bringing Bedard back because it’ll be frustrating, but that simply isn’t a smart way to view the situation.
Some people aren’t fond of this development because they feel like signing Bedard stops Seattle from making a better move; that the opportunity cost of signing Bedard is Washburn or Aaron Harang or [insert pitching target here]. I doubt that, however. Again, Bedard is no sure thing to give Seattle anything in 2010. Seattle is not banking on Bedard, they’re gambling on him. All of the other AL West teams have pitching gambles from Rich Harden to Ben Sheets to Scott Kazmir and Ervin Santana, and Seattle figures they may as well get their own lottery ticket. If the money and resources are there to upgrade over the in-house back of the rotation guys, I doubt Bedard will stop them from making a move.
As far as Washburn goes, he is shit out of options. As far as we can tell, he limited his options to three teams or retirement, the Milwaukee Brewers, Minnesota Twins and our Mariners. The Brewers went another route, the Twins offered him a $5M contract and spent that money on Orlando Hudson when it went unaccepted, and Seattle has seemingly placed him on the backburner indefinitely. If Washburn wants to play in 2010, he’ll have to take relative pennies from Seattle (unless Minnesota has more money than I think), in which case he’s no risk for Seattle and there is no reason not to bring him aboard. As far as the other potential trade targets, Seattle has other iffy spots in their rotation. Snell didn’t show much promise last season and, while it’s easy to forget, Ryan Rowland-Smith missed much of the year trying to get himself right after an elbow injury. If you’re worried about bringing in Bedard plus one other guy, don’t forget that those guys aren’t exactly reliable either. I’m sure Seattle could find a way to get everyone in. It would be a nice problem to have.
I love Erik Bedard. He’s one of my favorite Mariners of the 2000s, without a doubt. One of my favorite Mariners ever, really. But it isn’t just my fandom that has me supporting this signing. I find it hard to see such a deal in a negative light. At very worst it’s a “why not?” or “it can’t hurt” deal, right? If Bedard can’t get healthy, or can’t perform, or has any other problems, that’s too bad. But if he can string together a handful of good starts he’ll be worth it. If he can be a third ace for half the season and into the playoffs, even better. I’m not counting on it, but there is no reason not to take that gamble.
17 Responses to Let’s Talk About Erik Bedard
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mattm
February 5th, 2010 at 1:58 am
Bedard has not been able to pitch into the 6th inning EVER since coming over in the terrible trade that cost us our LF/#3 hitter-Closer-#4 starter and setup man.
Why would anyone expect him to go out there and be worth a pile of dog crap? I could sign Nolan Ryan on the same justification (he wont cost much…when healthy hes been effective) ITS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN!!! The guy is a pile who would rather cash a paycheck in the hot tub than compete against a decent lineup.
dmojr
February 5th, 2010 at 7:02 am
Anyone against this deal, 1) needs to get their head checked and 2) needs to learn something about the game.
Bedard, when hes able to throw is a stud. There is, or atleast SHOULD NOT be any questions about that. He is going to be better than whoever we have in our #5 hole when he is ready to go.
The glorious part of this move is, he does not need to be rushed back at all. We have the SP depth to make this work till may, june, all star break, whatever it may take. Whoever is pushed out of the rotation can become the long man if need be in the pen, as we all known Bedard wont be eating up the innings….
If he does not return we are talking 1.5 million dollars lost.. *crickets*
I understand everyone is entitled to their own opinion… but it’s wrong. All the hate that goes towards Bedard is not justified. Go back and watch his starts before his injury last year, the guy was amazing.
wazzy
February 5th, 2010 at 8:38 am
Bedard is fantastic IF/WHEN healthy, however the one strike I have against him is his inability to pitch deep into a game. My one worry about this signing is that if we still have an 6 man bullpen if/when bedard comes back, how much strain will he put on the pen? Other than that, I think signing bedard would be a great move.
BoiseM
February 5th, 2010 at 8:39 am
The fact that Bedard had enough guile to pitch as well as he did with a torn labrum, I think bodes well for a good return to form. He didn’t lose velocity, his breaking balls were still filthy…it just hurt like hell. Sign him up.
ernier
February 5th, 2010 at 8:42 am
I completely agree with your post and for 1.5 million I just don’t see the downside. People need to move on from the Bedard trade…Bavasi is not running the show anymore.
I understand mattm’s point, but I’d rather have the results of Bedard going 5 and 1/3, than the results of Snell or Vargas or French going 5 and 1/3. None of the current back of the rotation guys are 6 or 7 inning pitchers, so I’d rather have Bedard.
Jon – do you think there is any chance they might consider using him in the bullpen?
ivan
February 5th, 2010 at 8:52 am
Jon is right, and ernier also nails it. Who cares if he goes only 5 innings per start? It’ll be a better 5 innings than they’d get from the others. There’s no reason NOT to sign him if they can get him for what is being reported.
I’d like to see him get his pitch count down. He nibbles too much for someone with stuff like he has But first I’d like to see that he’s healthy.
maqman
February 5th, 2010 at 8:56 am
After what the Ms gave up for him and the millions they have already paid him I figure he owes the club a discount if he comes back. I realize that he was not responsible for Bavasi giving up the farm for him but he has cost the organization a lot and a little pay-back is called for. That said if he can give us a last half of this season equal to his first half of last season he should be square with the board.
Jon Reply:
February 5th, 2010 at 9:08 am
Say it with me now, sunk cost. Sunk cost. S-U-N-K C-O-S-T.
There is no making that deal square. He’s a free agent, and now he’s back (probably). The only thing Bedard has to live up to at this point is $1.5M.
Businesses that chase a sunk cost get themselves in trouble. Baseball teams are no different. Fans chasing a sunk cost are just going to get worked up into a tizzy. Let it go.
MarinerMan6 Reply:
February 5th, 2010 at 10:38 am
Jon,
I think you got it right. M’s fan hatred of Bedard is almost as irrational as their lovefest for anything Ken Griffey Jr. The difference is the true fans really like Bedard because he tangibly increases the talent level on the team.
I have to believe the M’s feel like they know he will be able to pitch sometime closer to May than July by giving him a contract this year. It seems like there was no rush to get a deal done unless the M’s brass knows something about his status other clubs do not (which is a real possibility considering we are performing his rehab).
mattm
February 5th, 2010 at 12:19 pm
Over/under on Bedard Starts: 11.5
Over/under on Bedard Wins: 4.5
Over/under on Bedard Innings Pitched: 49
Over/under on BS articles I have to read about how great Bedard is when healthy: 146
Odds Bedard pitches in a Sept game (something he has not done since 2006): 85/1
Number of games where I am going to wonder why we didn’t just sign John Smoltz instead: 162
This sounds alot like the same group of people that determined that Jeremy Reed was good and everyone else was not smart enough to see it. I remember USSM/LL railing about how terrible it would be to trade Reed for Pappelbon or Arroyo and how it would cripple the franchise because Reed was going to be such an offensive force.
Bedard is a talented man with absolutely zero drive or competitiveness and will look be a major headache all season long.
Jon Reply:
February 5th, 2010 at 1:17 pm
I acknowledged the strong possibilities of Bedard not getting healthy or Bedard not performing. There is still no good reason not to do this. It’s no risk.
And while I doubt bringing in Bedard would stop the team from bringing in Smoltz if that was something they wanted to do, it’s not like Smoltz is Mr. Reliable either. He’s 43 next season and has a loooong list of serious shoulder and elbow surgeries. Like Bedard, he has both Tommy John and labrum surgeries under his belt. Not to mention that Smoltz averaged 5 innings per start last year, which is less than what Bedard averaged with a torn labrum.
Zero drive or competitiveness? Now that’s just ridiculous…
Slurve Reply:
February 5th, 2010 at 5:47 pm
Obviously being traded for Jones/Tillman+ and getting injured means he has no drive or competitiveness. And to be fair Jeremy Reed career MiLB line: .321/.388/.476 (up to 09) and before he was traded to us .373/.453/.537, he produced that line at age 22. Should we have traded him looking back? Yes but a CFer who hit like that and walked more than he struck out 70BB/36SO and has speed 45 SB(albeit 19 CS) that is a valuable asset. But at the time he looked like he was going to be a stud and Lester wasn’t exactly healthy and came off a not to exciting 04 campaign.
Oh and Bedard is great when healthy that is not BS.
MarinerMan6 Reply:
February 6th, 2010 at 12:02 pm
I love how fan’s would rather have Bedard pitch while injured and if he doesn’t call him soft. Pitching injured does nothing but hurt your team. The guys with grit the last few years include Silva and Batista and those guys were hurt and we saw how they did. If Bedard is healthy for half the season and pitches effectively the M’s will be happy.
Slurve Reply:
February 6th, 2010 at 6:34 pm
The ironic thing is that he did pitch injured.
mattm
February 5th, 2010 at 12:43 pm
I meant to say Reed for Pappelbon or Lester:
http://ussmariner.com/2005/12/29/papelbon-and-lester/
navychief2004
February 5th, 2010 at 1:36 pm
Research, people.
When healthy, Bedard is 7 inning pitcher. IF he comes back and is successful, I can see him being a 6 inning starter. If he can give 6 per start, then League, Kelley, Lowe and DA take over, I can see Bedard being a good pickup, regardless of price.
mattm Reply:
February 5th, 2010 at 2:02 pm
When healthy, Bedard is 7 inning pitcher?
2009 13/15 starts < 7 innings 9/15 < 6 innings
2008 12/15 starts < 7 innings 8/15 < 6 innings