Update (3/9/11): Redux.

Everyone is enamored with San Diego State RHSP Stephen Strasburg, and rightfully so.  Last season he produced a 1.37 ERA in 13 starts, striking out 133 in 97.1 innings while walking just 16.  He continued to shine in the 2008 Olympics where he became a truly national name.  This season he’s off to another fast start, fanning 16 hitters over 6 2/3 innings in a recent start and having his fastball clocked at over 100 MPH several times.

His performance and stuff have him as the consensus number one pick for the 2009 draft, but there has been some concern about his mechanics.  He’s big and strong, but that isn’t the only thing that determines a player’s durability.

I’ve shared more than once a pair of links from Driveline Mechanics (1, 2) talking about Strasburg’s mechanics, but let’s take another quick look at one part of his mechanics and then shift the discussion from there.

Here’s a shot of Strasburg with Team USA.  At a quick glance you may notice the Inverted W, discussed in detail by Chris O’Leary at his website.  (You may want to see this as the Inverted V, which is basically the same thing).   Here are some injury prone pitchers mentioned on O’Leary’s site that show the Inverted W (click to enlarge):

Strasburg isn’t as extreme as these other guys, but you can see that his elbows are up above his shoulder level.  That in itself isn’t what causes the injury (according to O’Leary), but the Inverted W causes a timing issue that puts extra pressure on the elbow and shoulder.

After the gloveside leg plants and the hips begin to rotate, O’Leary and others believe that a pitcher’s throwing arm should be vertical, with the ball facing towards third base.  Seattle’s own Felix Hernandez is a decent example of this.

Strasburg doesn’t do this.  I can’t find a good photo of Strasburg at this crucial moment, so I’ve stolen and cropped this screenshot from the above linked Driveline Mechanics post and paired it with a shot of him a couple frames before this point:

You see his arm pointed towards third base at this point.  Because of this, his pitching arm is pulled violently around his body in a whip like motion as it tries to catch up to his body.  Here’s a good slow motion video of his motion.  If you checked out the Driveline Mechanics posts, you may have seen the .gifs of Strasburg and Prior side by side in which their motions look very similar. Pitchers can throw really hard with lots of movement this way, but injuries are very common.

That is just a small part of pitcher’s mechanics and there could be other issues for Strasburg, but here’s the question: Should you pass up a guy like Strasburg because of mechanical concerns?

Teams do indeed pass guys up because of durability concerns.  I was talking to BBT commentor/sometimes writer Dustin Shires about this and he immediately brought up Tim Lincecum, who produced insane numbers with the University of Washington and had possibly the best pure stuff of anyone in the draft class, but was passed up by several teams because of his slight build and unorthodox delivery.  Now, Lincecum’s mechanics have since been proved to be sound and even revolutionary, but that’s not the point.  Teams didn’t know how he would hold up so they passed up on him.

Strasburg is different, though.  At 6’4, 220 lbs he is physically the prototypical 1st round starting pitcher.  Going back to Lincecum’s draft class in 2006, he (5’11, 160) was taken behind Luke Hochevar (6’5, 205), Greg Reynolds (6’7, 225), Andrew Miller (6’6, 210) and others, with number 4 pick Brad Lincoln the only other “undersized” starter taken in the top part of the round.  A lot of scouts are gonna see Strasburg and say he’s big and strong enough to shoulder a large workload, but as recent history has shown us, size isn’t everything.

Recent top draft choices such as Mark Prior in 2001 (6’5, 230), Bryan Bullington in 2002 (6’4, 220) and others have proved that mechanics are just as (or even more) important than size.

Strasburg isn’t getting passed up, but say his mechanical issues got more attention than they do (presumably); is a man of his talent worth passing up in the name of longevity?

It’s all a gamble.  Chances are, Strasburg isn’t going to spend much time in the minor leagues, much like Lincecum (63 IP), David Price (109 IP), Mark Prior (~60 IP originally) and other advanced pitching prospects.  The faster he gets to the bigs the more you get out of him before he inevitably blows out his elbow, but there is no way of knowing how long a guy with sketchy mechanics will last.  Some will get through several hundred innings before getting hurt– perhaps even making it 6 seasons to free agency– while others will hurt themselves in their first professional season.

You can’t pass up a guy like Strasburg at the number 2 pick though; he’s just that good.  If I was in charge and he was somehow still on the board I would jump at the chance to get him, but in the back of my mind I’d be worried about that golden arm, watching nervously with every pitch.  If/when Strasburg goes number 1, I can tell you right now that– while disappointed– I’ll breathe a sigh of relief and be very content if Seattle ends up with a different high upside yet mechanically sound hurler with that second pick.

* I should mention that this post is assuming that Strasburg remains the consensus number 1 between now and draft day.  There is a lot of time for things to change, though his quick start indicates that he’s probably not going anywhere.