Strasburg & Drafting Bad Mechanics
by Jon ~ March 2nd, 2009 at 6:43 pm
Everyone is enamored with San Diego State RHSP Stephen Strasburg, and rightfully so. Last season he produced a 1.37 ERA in 13 starts, striking out 133 in 97.1 innings while walking just 16. He continued to shine in the 2008 Olympics where he became a truly national name. This season he’s off to another fast start, fanning 16 hitters over 6 2/3 innings in a recent start and having his fastball clocked at over 100 MPH several times.
His performance and stuff have him as the consensus number one pick for the 2009 draft, but there has been some concern about his mechanics. He’s big and strong, but that isn’t the only thing that determines a player’s durability.
I’ve shared more than once a pair of links from Driveline Mechanics (1, 2) talking about Strasburg’s mechanics, but let’s take another quick look at one part of his mechanics and then shift the discussion from there.
Here’s a shot of Strasburg with Team USA. At a quick glance you may notice the Inverted W, discussed in detail by Chris O’Leary at his website. (You may want to see this as the Inverted V, which is basically the same thing). Here are some injury prone pitchers mentioned on O’Leary’s site that show the Inverted W (click to enlarge):
Strasburg isn’t as extreme as these other guys, but you can see that his elbows are up above his shoulder level. That in itself isn’t what causes the injury (according to O’Leary), but the Inverted W causes a timing issue that puts extra pressure on the elbow and shoulder.
After the gloveside leg plants and the hips begin to rotate, O’Leary and others believe that a pitcher’s throwing arm should be vertical, with the ball facing towards third base. Seattle’s own Felix Hernandez is a decent example of this.
Strasburg doesn’t do this. I can’t find a good photo of Strasburg at this crucial moment, so I’ve stolen and cropped this screenshot from the above linked Driveline Mechanics post and paired it with a shot of him a couple frames before this point:
You see his arm pointed towards third base at this point. Because of this, his pitching arm is pulled violently around his body in a whip like motion as it tries to catch up to his body. Here’s a good slow motion video of his motion. If you checked out the Driveline Mechanics posts, you may have seen the .gifs of Strasburg and Prior side by side in which their motions look very similar. Pitchers can throw really hard with lots of movement this way, but injuries are very common.
That is just a small part of pitcher’s mechanics and there could be other issues for Strasburg, but here’s the question: Should you pass up a guy like Strasburg because of mechanical concerns?
Teams do indeed pass guys up because of durability concerns. I was talking to BBT commentor/sometimes writer Dustin Shires about this and he immediately brought up Tim Lincecum, who produced insane numbers with the University of Washington and had possibly the best pure stuff of anyone in the draft class, but was passed up by several teams because of his slight build and unorthodox delivery. Now, Lincecum’s mechanics have since been proved to be sound and even revolutionary, but that’s not the point. Teams didn’t know how he would hold up so they passed up on him.
Strasburg is different, though. At 6’4, 220 lbs he is physically the prototypical 1st round starting pitcher. Going back to Lincecum’s draft class in 2006, he (5’11, 160) was taken behind Luke Hochevar (6’5, 205), Greg Reynolds (6’7, 225), Andrew Miller (6’6, 210) and others, with number 4 pick Brad Lincoln the only other “undersized” starter taken in the top part of the round. A lot of scouts are gonna see Strasburg and say he’s big and strong enough to shoulder a large workload, but as recent history has shown us, size isn’t everything.
Recent top draft choices such as Mark Prior in 2001 (6’5, 230), Bryan Bullington in 2002 (6’4, 220) and others have proved that mechanics are just as (or even more) important than size.
Strasburg isn’t getting passed up, but say his mechanical issues got more attention than they do (presumably); is a man of his talent worth passing up in the name of longevity?
It’s all a gamble. Chances are, Strasburg isn’t going to spend much time in the minor leagues, much like Lincecum (63 IP), David Price (109 IP), Mark Prior (~60 IP originally) and other advanced pitching prospects. The faster he gets to the bigs the more you get out of him before he inevitably blows out his elbow, but there is no way of knowing how long a guy with sketchy mechanics will last. Some will get through several hundred innings before getting hurt– perhaps even making it 6 seasons to free agency– while others will hurt themselves in their first professional season.
You can’t pass up a guy like Strasburg at the number 2 pick though; he’s just that good. If I was in charge and he was somehow still on the board I would jump at the chance to get him, but in the back of my mind I’d be worried about that golden arm, watching nervously with every pitch. If/when Strasburg goes number 1, I can tell you right now that– while disappointed– I’ll breathe a sigh of relief and be very content if Seattle ends up with a different high upside yet mechanically sound hurler with that second pick.
* I should mention that this post is assuming that Strasburg remains the consensus number 1 between now and draft day. There is a lot of time for things to change, though his quick start indicates that he’s probably not going anywhere.
12 Responses to Strasburg & Drafting Bad Mechanics
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Slugoben
March 2nd, 2009 at 6:47 pm
I say Dustin Ackley or Grant Greene
usabaseballfan
March 2nd, 2009 at 7:05 pm
The main reason why last season was SO bad was because we couldn’t even be the best at being bad. I think the season ending sweep of the A’s is going to turn out to be the biggest disaster of the 08 season. Hopefully Strassburg turns out to be Mark Prior and flames out after a few seasons. Or gets injured this season and watches his stock drop. Or the Nats fear the signability and we are able to nab him (almost 0% chance, though). Ackley, Greene, and Crow are nowhere near Strassburg’s level. I just hope that something major happens this season to massively increase the stock of one of these guys or massively decrease the value of Strassburg. If neither of those happen, the M’s will have lost out on the best prospect, consensus #1 pick since probably A-Rod (IMO) because of a stupid series against the A’s.
usabaseballfan
March 2nd, 2009 at 7:08 pm
USC shortstop Grant Green doubled and walked in four plate appearances and committed his fifth error of the season in the ninth inning. For the year, Green is hitting .261/.370/.478 with two doubles a home run and three steals.
Not the can’t-miss prospect that the M’s HAVE TO nab at the #2 slot.
Slugoben
March 2nd, 2009 at 8:12 pm
usabaseballfan- Really? He was better last season. The I say Ackley. But please, not another pitcher; We already have Pineda, Aumont, Ramirez, Addock and all our major league starters.
Dustin Shires
March 2nd, 2009 at 8:19 pm
But please, not another pitcher; We already have Pineda, Aumont, Ramirez, Addock and all our major league starters.
You’d be an idiot of a GM to not draft the best player available when you look solely at four pitchers in your farm system.
You’d be an idiot of a GM to assume that they all pan out too…
Jon Shields
March 2nd, 2009 at 9:07 pm
You really have to take the best player available, especially in the first round. It’s not every team’s philosophy, but it should be. Seattle’s new management has said that they’re going to draft the best players available, which is awesome.
When you draft for need you end up wasting your first round pick on a Josh Fields.
Prospects aren’t reliable. They flame out, they plateau, they get hurt, etc etc etc… you have to stock up on as many quality players as possible.
If the best player available at #2 is a pitcher such as Alex White, Mike Minor or someone else, then they should definitely take him. Never mind Aumont, Ramirez, Pineda, Adcock, Valdivia, Cleto, Felix, RRS, Olson or whatever other quality arms are in the system. Get as many as you can because most of them won’t see significant time with the Seattle Mariners.
Just because the system is weak at SS doesn’t mean they should stretch to take Grant Green, who is currently looking like a 5-10 pick. Picking Ackley at 2 would be stretch right now as well unless he proves his arm is healthy and he can play CF where his offensive production and athleticism can be put to proper use, rather than at 1B where he’s playing now. Playing 1B is really hurting his draft stock.
Mike Rogers
March 2nd, 2009 at 10:15 pm
His mechanics are scary. However, I believe that you get the return on your investment (maybe not at No. 1, but on average, a team’s 1st round pick) if they spend one season in the majors giving league average production.
And maybe being Mark Prior isn’t a bad thing. He led the Cubs to being a few innings from the World Series before Alex Gonzalez went all Roger Dorn on them and let an inning-ending double play skip through him.
People forget that Mark Prior gave the Cubs 613.1 innings of great baseball, never posting an ERA+ lower than 109 and peaked at 178(!) in 2003. How many teams draft atop the draft would kill for 613 innings of 132 ERA+ baseball.
Slurve
March 2nd, 2009 at 10:20 pm
Never ever draft based on need. Drafting Grant Green just because he’s a SS is a very wrong reason to do so. Green is not a Tulo or a Longoria he’s going to be an average everyday SS at the least but if you take him because he’s gonna be your future SS that’s just wrong especially when there is going to be another player out there who’ll probably be way better to chose.(and especially when there are new draft eligible players that will fall in the later picks who have a very similar skill set as Green and is younger as well.) The gap between Strasburg and the number 2 pick is very big if you get a chance at Strasburg at number 2 you take him hands fucking down if not then you draft the next best player on your list. Also if Ackley can play 2nd base which they say he will later in the season he has just increased his valuea lot(even enough to leap frog Green) IMHO since how many 2B can post a .300AVG/380-.400OBP and a .480 SLG but I’m just ranting. Draft based on talent not based on need.
Then on another note if Strasburg’s mechanics are bad enough to the point where his arm will die out you can expect 5 seasons porbably out of him before his arm blows but even if you get 5 seasons out of him with the future of our ball-club you can say we’ll have to best rotation in the entire MLB(Felix,Morrow,Strasburg!,and maybe Erikkkkkkkkk) and with Truinfel, Halman, Saunders, Raben, etc. coming up you’re looking at Seattle for serious contenders for the next 5 seasons with a rotation like that backed up with good young talent.
usabaseballfan
March 3rd, 2009 at 12:46 am
You guys are absolutely right about the M’s taking the best talent available. They simply have to follow that course of action. The one thing that we have going for is is that there are still nearly 4 months until the draft, which means there is a ton of time for new prospects to emerge, as well as for current top prospects to fizzle.
Correct me if this logic is wrong, but it seems like the M’s might have the best shot with a High School prospect that emerges this season as a true stud. None of the prospects after Strassburg, at least at this point, have enough”wow factor” to warrant a SECOND OVERALL selection in the draft. Greene is definitely looking like more of a mid-first rounder, Ackley has Tommy John/injury concerns (not to mention the question marks about what his true position is), and so forth. It seems much more likely that a High School prospect will emerge than a college prospect to all of a sudden turn into an Evan Longoria or David Price.
Personally, I would much rather the M’s find an Evan Longoria than a pitcher because the rotation looks more promising to me than anything else. You definitely have to go with the best player available, but if there is a hitter at #2 that emerges big-time this season, especially an infielder, I would be pretty doggone happy. I wouldn’t mind finding a B.J. Upton or Alex Rodriguez in one of our nation’s high schools, even though I’m assuming we’d already know all about them by now if there was a chance that they were out there.
Jon Shields
March 3rd, 2009 at 1:06 am
The one thing that we have going for is is that there are still nearly 4 months until the draft, which means there is a ton of time for new prospects to emerge, as well as for current top prospects to fizzle.
I 100% agree with this and have been preaching this in other threads. Strasburg still looks like the #1 right now, but there is plenty of time for his stock to fall, or for someone to emerge as a clear cut #2.
As far as high schoolers go.. I’d love to get a college pitcher at #2 but if a high schooler is truly the best talent available then you’ve gotta give them a chance. Unfortunately there aren’t any more Upton brothers coming through that I know of!
Only high schoolers I’ve heard much of so far are LHP Tyler Matzek, LHP Matt Purke and OF Donovan Tate, all of whom could go top 10-15.
Slugoben
March 3rd, 2009 at 6:53 am
My thing is here- Lets say White and Ackley are the 2&3 but they are virtually tied. Take Ackley then. Then they can draft a pitcher with the pick we got because of the Phillies.
Jon Shields
March 3rd, 2009 at 11:48 am
We can cross that bridge if/when we get to it.