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After being acquired as one of many useful parts in the J.J. Putz trade, Jason Vargas pitched 91.2 innings at the big league level in his Seattle Mariners debut.  It was an up and down year for him, as he got off to a nice start, faded, was demoted and then was effective out of the bullpen to close out the year.

The (then) 26 year old lefty got some fans really excited by posting a 1.65 ERA in May.  It wasn’t the real Vargas, however.  His BABIP was down to just .221 and his strand rate sat at an unbelievable 98.4%(!!!).  The next month he lost his four leaf clover and his ERA ballooned up to 5.93 for the month of June.  As it were, his FIP was 4.74 for both months.  Luck!

A 4.74 FIP for someone of Vargas’ skill set and experience is pretty good, but he wasn’t able to stay at that level beyond two months.  Come July the coaching staff was quoted as saying they felt he was tuckering out a bit, and it showed.  Vargas was hammered in July, as his LD% against jumped from 19.6% the month before to 29.3% and he surrendered 4 or more earned runs in three of his four starts that month.  In his other start he escaped without giving up any runs, but his usually excellent control left him and he walked a season high 5 batters.

After one more rough August start he was demoted to AAA Tacoma in favor of Doug Fister and wasn’t brought back up until rosters expanded in September.

Why the sudden downturn?

As suggested by the Don Wakamatsu and company, I would assume that he just hit a wall.  Vargas missed the entire 2008 season recovering from elbow (bone spurs) and hip (torn labrum) surgeries.  I would think he just wore himself out.

You can see his fastball velocity waiver a little bit as the season went on.

Looking at the pitch f/x data, Vargas’ release point dropped later in the year (not the first time in his career he’s had trouble maintaining his arm angle) and he was getting significant less movement on his pitches on top of the drop in velocity.

His arm angle dropping is not much of a surprise if he was indeed hitting a wall.  Pitchers sometimes move closer to sidearm when they are dealing with injuries or fatigue, as sidearm is a more natural throwing motion that puts less stress on the arm.  Pedro Martinez is a good example of a guy who has dropped his arm angle over time as he’s dealt with injuries and general wear and tear.  Of course, it’s not always a good thing in terms of performance.

After missing an entire season of competitive baseball, 143 innings is quite the undertaking.

This assumption allows me to hope that the “real” Vargas is the guy we saw the first couple of months with Seattle.  No, he wasn’t a star in those first couple months, but he was a serviceable arm who could hold down the fifth spot in the rotation without a problem.  A Jarrod Washburn type.

Unless we are surprised by another acquisition, Vargas is in the running for that fifth spot in 2010, and recent reports paint the picture that he is making a strong case.

I’d be okay with that.  I like Vargas enough.  He doesn’t walk many hitters, he has a good changeup.  Everything else is so-so at best, but that’s what the park and defense are for.  I worry a little bit about his performance against lefties.  He doesn’t shut them down as well as (say) Luke French, so he doesn’t get as much use out of the park as other candidates might.  But when you’re quibbling between a guy like French and a guy like Vargas, the difference is so minor that, well, who cares?  I’m sure we’ll see several of these guys in that fifth spot over the duration of this upcoming season.

2010 is also Vargas’ last option year, so he’ll be trying to establish himself as a true blue big leaguer this year.  I think he should be just fine.