Mauricio Robles has been a tough prospect to get a handle on.  He came over to the Seattle Mariners as part of the Jarrod Washburn trade, and it hasn’t been easy tracking down consistent info on him.  From what I gathered at the time of my last starting pitchers prospect ranking, the median report on him had the stocky southpaw having a difficult time controlling a low 90s fastball, a curve that flashed as a plus pitch and a changeup that needed a lot of work.

But reports were all over the place, making it hard to feel confident about any assessment.

An article by Geoff Baker today has got me thinking about Robles again.  Baker’s article is no more than a “class-A lefty makes strong first impression at big league camp” fluff piece, but comments on Robles’ stuff were intriguing.  Robles says his fastball sat around 94 mph last season and could get as high as 97, while Mike Sweeney (who has faced him this spring), Guillermo Quiroz (who has caught him) and Felix Hernandez (who has taken an interest in him) talked about how good his stuff is.  Baker anchored his article by talking up Robles’ changeup, describing it as a nearly unhittable pitch, and quoting pitching coach Rick Adair calling it a plus pitch.  No mention of a curveball at all.

Of course, Baker’s article is not a formal scouting report by any means.  It’s fine for his purposes, but not for trying to measure Robles.  It’s not easy to get objective info on a player by asking his organization, teammates or himself.

Whether those velocity numbers came from Robles glancing at a stadium gun (which would almost certainly render them inaccurate, usually a touch fast) or got them from a coach or scout, they don’t jive with some reports from last season that had his fastball all the way down in the high 80s last season, and the buzz surrounding his changeup certainly didn’t fit anything I’ve read before.

So I asked gal pal Jason A. Churchill of Prospect Insider if he had heard anything or developed any new opinions since the last time I asked him about Robles, and fortunately he had.  I won’t go into full detail in fear of stepping on his toes with regards to his upcoming Mariners prospect handbook, but he had some interesting things to say.

The biggest thing being that the Mariners had him throwing a sinker once they acquired him.  A sinker is going to be slower than a traditional four seamer, so it may be safe to say that Robles’ normal fastball indeed sits in the low 90s and topping out in the mid 90s, while his sinking fastball may come in in the mid-high 80s.

Robles is short, as mentioned, and combine that with a 3/4 arm slot and you have another guy that struggles to get downward plane on his pitches.  We’ve hit this subject a couple times in recent days in talking about Mark Lowe and Garrett Olson, but both of those guys could help themselves by standing a little taller, an option that Robles doesn’t really have.  But adding some sink to the pitches is the next best thing, if not better, so you have to like this move even if it keeps him from lighting up the radar gun as often as he may have before the adjustments.  Robles saw immediate results too, moving his batted profile from neutral firmly onto the groundball side of things in a small sample with High Desert.  That is surely one of the reasons he was able to put up sparkling numbers in a hitter’s paradise.

As far as the changeup goes, who knows?  Like I said, it wasn’t rated highly in reports I’ve come across, and Jason said today that he thought it was average at best last season and very inconsistent.  So while I’m not going to put a lot of stock into what Seattle’s pitching coach said of his own young player, I’m holding out hope that he has been able to improve it.

There is a shot that it’s been better than I gave it credit for last year.  He has fared well against right handed batters the last couple of years, suggesting that he’s gotten good use out of his changeup.  Then again, it’s hard to know what the numbers are trying to tell you in A-ball.  A good fastball is sometimes all you need to succeed at that level.

In addition to writing that article, Baker also shot this video of Robles pitching in today’s intersquad game, getting utility man Chris Woodward to hit into an out and then striking out top prospects James Jones and Nick Franklin.

He throws all of his pitches as far as I can tell. You can see a couple of really nice changeups to kick off the at bats against Woodward and Franklin.  The curve is obvious, and while he isn’t able to locate any you can see the tight break despite leaving it up, and how it could be a devastating pitch if placed at the knees.

I’m feeling a lot better about Robles now than I did when I ranked the starter prospects just a few months ago.  I would definitely bump him back above Maikel Cleto at the least.