It’s been apparent all spring that there are only one or two spots up for grabs in the Seattle Mariners bullpen.  The “one cohesive unit” featured in one of the Mariners’ new commercials all are guaranteed spots.  David Aardsma, Mark Lowe, Brandon League and Shawn Kelley are set in stone, and Sean White will be there as well as long as he’s healthy.

If the Mariners go with a big bench as expected, that leaves one more spot to whoever catches the eye of the coaching staff this spring.  Now that we’ve seen a half dozen pure relievers and a few other arms cut– including all of the hard throwing rookie sleepers– let’s take a look at the competition for the last spot(s).

Before we get to names, let’s talk about what kind of pitcher Seattle will likely be looking for at that spot.  In a typical 7-man bullpen, that last reliever is usually a guy that can give the team 4-5 innings in a pinch.  He’s the guy that eats innings in blowouts, spot starts when a starter needs an extra day of rest, pitches in emergencies when the bullpen is short staffed, and so on.  I’m not sure if Seattle can afford to go with the typical #6 starter here though.  In a short bullpen the sixth man will need to get meaningful outs more than the typical long reliever.  And this may be true in a Don Wakamatsu bullpen of any size, as he’s often spoke of how he doesn’t want any guy sitting around for too long.

Furthermore, it’s not as easy as sticking a capable arm like Doug Fister in that spot, because it has been said that the team will not use that last bullpen spot as a consolation prize for whoever doesn’t get that fifth rotation spot.  You can probably rule Fister and Luke French out, both of whom would be better served to continue working as starters at AAA Tacoma.  Jason Vargas, the current front runner for the rotation opening, and Garrett Olson are a little different since they each only have one option year left, though there is a chance that Vargas indeed lands in the rotation and so far Olson has pitched himself off the ballclub this spring and last season.

Yusmeiro Petit was released today, leaving no other true starters left in camp outside of Fister, French, Vargas and Olson.  Unless Vargas or Olson snag the last spot in the bullpen, the team may be thinking about going without that traditional long man.

But Seattle can probably get by without a could-be starter.  As long as they have a couple guys that can go multiple innings on any given night– maybe up to 4 innings in an emergency– they should be fine.  If you ever need a guy throwing more innings than that out of the bullpen you’re probably in a situation when the next day’s starter or utility infielder would suffice.  Need a spot starter?  It’s not difficult to pull someone from AAA Tacoma.

Kelley is being stretched out this spring with the hope being he can give some innings, whether that means pitching the 3rd through 5th after the starter has been chased or pitching the 6th through 8th when the setup guys need a break or any other combination of 2-4 innings that may be required.  If he can manage that, Seattle should be able to get by if the last addition to the ‘pen can handle multiple innings as well.  Seattle has a few candidates in camp who fit that description.

The first is Kanekoa Texeira, the Rule 5 pick.  Texeira was used as a spot starter last season in AA so it is reasonable to think that he could handle 3-4 innings at a time if need be.  On top of that, he can get both sides of the plate out and would give the ‘pen another groundballer.  As a Rule 5, he may have a slight edge over some of the others in that if he isn’t on the team he will be heading back to the New York Yankees.  So far this spring Texeira has a line of 5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 K, 3 BB.  The walks are the worst part of his game, and could kill his chances if he doesn’t get them under control.

Levale Speigner is another.  Speigner hasn’t come up on this site much as he figured to be a non-factor.  The 29 year old Speigner pounds the zone with an assortment of groundball inducing pitches, letting hitters get themselves out on ball in play.  Well, that is the minor league version of Speigner.  The big league version of Speigner, in small samples, pounds the zone and in turn gets pounded.  His walk rates reflect his inability to get big league hitters out.  That is, minor league hitters can’t square him up much so he throws the ball consistently over the plate, but big league hitters can, so he is forced to nibble, similar to Olson (I would suspect).  Speigner has been a multi inning reliever and spot starter the last few years, so he could serve as a pseudo-long man if need be, though I doubt he makes the team.  He’s just not as good as some of the others in camp.  But he’s making it interesting, putting up a 5 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 K, 0 BB line so far this spring.

The rest of the guys in camp probably top out at 2 innings or less, making them an unideal pick for a 6-man bullpen, though they could have a shot if White or someone else goes down with an injury or if the team surprises us with a 7-man ‘pen.

Chad Cordero is trying to make himself the feel good story of the spring this year, as he enters year two of his journey back to the big leagues recovering from a shoulder injury (torn labrum, I think).  Last season he was godawful.  When I saw him pitch for Everett late in the season his fastball was sitting somewhere around 83 MPH and he couldn’t get new pros out.  But he has continued to progress, has lost a bunch of weight and his velocity is supposedly back up around the 86-88 range, which isn’t far off from where he was as an All-Star 4-5 years ago.

But I don’t see him replicating his 2005 ERA anytime soon.  His FIP was almost two runs higher, and since that season his walk rate has brought his FIPs up.  An extreme flyball pitcher, pitching his home games at the spacious RFK Stadium did him good.  And the pre-surgery Cordero could be helped out similarly by Safeco Field I’m sure, but are we going to get that same guy in 2010?  That remains to be seen, but the odds are against him.  I would think he’s a 6th inning type of guy at best this season, which is fine and good but not what many are hoping for.

But given his former high profile as an All-Star closer who once accrued 47 saves in one season (tied for the 17th best all time), I would expect Wakamatsu and the coaching staff to want him on the Mariners if he shows he is “back” this spring.  It’ll be interesting to see how they maneuver if he forces his way onto the team considering his inability to go multiple innings.  So far this spring he has a pretty neutral line of 3.2 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 K, 1 BB.

If he doesn’t make the team, I expect he’ll be cut loose.  I think I read that somewhere.  If Cordero doesn’t make the team, the Mariners could do him a solid and release him so that he can try and latch on elsewhere.

Jesus Colome is interesting.  He’s a journeyman fireballer who has had some control issues in the past but made strides in the right direction last season and is making a case for himself this spring with a 4.1 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 5 K, 0 BB line.  But he’s another one inning guy that doesn’t quite fit in a 6-man ‘pen.  Mike Koplove is another journeyman who was pretty good in his mid 20s, but hasn’t gotten many chances in recent years.  Lots of ground balls and more walks than you can tolerate from a non-strikeout guy.  But Koplove is having a good spring so far– 5.1 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 4 K, 1 BB– and given the amount of innings he’s thrown so far you have to think he’s getting legitimate consideration.  It’s probably worth noting that Koplove isn’t a guy that was brought in on a whim this offseason, but picked up last season after he was cut loose from Pittsburgh.  He’s been a short reliever in recent years, but he seems like the type of rubber arm that could put in a few innings.

So what does that leave us with?

From where I sit, Vargas is the favorite for both the fifth rotation spot and sixth bullpen spot.  If he makes the rotation, Olson has a clear shot at the bullpen opening if he can turn his spring around, but right now he’s looking more like a member of Tacoma’s rotation.  I really like Texeira for this spot.  I think he’s a guy Seattle should try to keep around and I think he can be a good contributor in the middle innings, walks be damned.  Koplove is the fallback, and I don’t see Fister or French getting real consideration for the bullpen.

My preferred pitching staff as of today (what I want based on what seems feasible):

SP1: Felix Hernandez
SP2: Cliff Lee
SP3-4: Ian Snell
SP 3-4: Ryan Rowland-Smith
SP 5: Vargas

CL: Aardsma
SU: League
SU: Lowe
MR: White
MR/LR: Kelley
MR/LR: Texeira

Who would you like to fill out a 6-man ‘pen?  What if they go with a 7-man?