Starting Pitcher Prospect Rankings Update
by Jon ~ March 3rd, 2010
I’ll probably only be doing one big Prospect Report series per year, but I thought it would be a good idea to track prospect movers in between. I obviously won’t always write about prospects with their rank in mind, but whenever there is a significant shuffling up of the most recently posted rankings I’ll try to do an updated list to help put the changes in opinion or new information in perspective. You can find all prospect rankings linked on the left sidebar.
1.) Michael Pineda
+1 for change in opinion, ranking methods
This has nothing to do with the recent hype coming out of Mariners camp.
The only reason why I had Pineda at number two last time was because of the elbow trouble in conjunction with some whippy throwing mechanics. I’ve thought a lot about it since the last set of rankings and have come to the conclusion that it’s not quite fair to dock a pitcher after one injury-marred season.
If he establishes a trend of being injury prone in the coming seasons then it’s a different story, but I think I jumped the gun in proclaiming him a major risk.
2.) Dan Cortes
3.) Mauricio Robles
+1 for new information
I liked Robles, but I ranked him fourth a couple months ago citing his poor control and lack of a changeup all while worrying about whether he’d be able to keep his velocity up through the years despite his size. Now we have a little more information and now I like him a little more.
The changeup is better than I thought. I’m not quite willing to believe that it’s the plus pitch pitching coach Rick Adair said it is in a recent article (though Ron Shandler apparently calls it his best pitch as well, for what that’s worth), but I believe it at very least has the potential to be a good big league pitch, and it stood out in the short video Geoff Baker posted the other day. Seems as though last year it was workable but lacked consistency, making the scouting reports, well, inconsistent. But if it’s going to be a good pitch for him, that helps a lot. Changeups are important, especially for lefties, and young pitchers often have a hard time developing a feel for them.
As far as the fastball velocity, it seems as though we were able to figure out the reason for some of the inconsistent reports from last year that had him anywhere from 86 to the mid-high 90s. As mentioned a few posts back, Robles was taught a sinker upon joining the Mariners, which will obviously increase the range of velocity. This helps him climb my rankings for a couple of reasons. For one, a sinker is a great addition that will help him keep the ball on the ground and could make him into a better pitcher. If it’s a good and consistent sinker that is, which is still to be determined. Secondly, we now realize that the drop in velocity had less to do with him struggling to maintain his fireballer status and more to do with a change in approach. Hopefully he can work off the sinker and then have a low-mid 90s heat on a straight fastball that he can throw up around the eyes for a few strikeouts.
The sinker and changeup are probably my two favorite pitches. Robles knows how to work the judges…
4.) Maikel Cleto
5.) Luke French
Previously unranked
French was an afterthought on the last rankings, mostly because I was thinking he spent most of the season in the big leagues rather than just 67.1 innings, and he made such a terrible first impression in Seattle that I barely viewed him as part of Seattle’s future plans anyway.
But French is very much a prospect still, and I think he has more promise than he showed late last season. As mentioned in a recent post, the dead arm period he reportedly suffered through while in the big leagues to go along with his groundball profile as a minor leaguer make me believe that we could see a different Luke French in 2010. As Conor noted a couple posts back, French is said to look rejuvenated this spring.
And even if he isn’t able to improve much on last season, he deserves more points than I gave him for being big league ready (same with Doug Fister, who would slot in somewhere around #6-8) (And yes, I view French as a slightly better prospect than Fister, though I like Fister a lot more. Objectivity!).
3 Responses to Starting Pitcher Prospect Rankings Update
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment. If you don't yet have an account, please register here and join the discussion. Registration takes only a few seconds!
eastcoastmariner
March 3rd, 2010 at 9:01 pm
The idea of Luke French being the Mariners 5th best starting pitching prospect makes me rather sick. Unfortunately, he probably is their 5th best SP prospect. Here in lies the problem…
harrison
March 5th, 2010 at 5:09 am
Good to see you upgrade Michael Pineda. I’ve told you before I don’t think very highly of Dan Cortes. I still maintain him #3 on my list with Robles in front.
Jon Reply:
March 5th, 2010 at 1:22 pm
I still think Pineda is overrated.