Compensation Developments

by ~ June 26th, 2009 at 6:23 pm

Eddie Bajek, the Detroit Tigers Thoughts writer responsible for reverse engineering the Elias free agent rankings, has published an up to date report of where things stand that can be found here.

There is no guarentee that Eddie is 100% right, but he’s at least very very close, so these rankings should give us a good idea of where Seattle’s expiring players stand.

Some notes:

It’s long been determined that the Elias system for ranking these players (discussed here) is inadequate, and Ichiro being ranked as a Type B player is solid evidence of that.  He’s one of the best players in baseball but he’s ranked between Pat Burrell and Hideki Matsui.  Of course it doesn’t matter much because Ichiro isn’t a free agent for a few more years, but it’s just an illustration of how bad the system is.

Russell Branyan is about 9-10 points from Type B status, despite playing in only 50 games last year.  A good second half this year could help him make up the difference, though it probably doesn’t matter because I don’t see Branyan declining arbitration and signing with another club assuming Seattle keeps him all year.  He’s said he owes it to GM Jack Zduriencik and manager Don Wakamatsu to re-sign with Seattle, and he really does.

As it sits now, Adrian Beltre is a Type B right on the cusp of Type A.  If he plays through the injury all season he has a shot at Type A assuming that Jason Bartlett, Mike Lowell and Scott Rolen all regress a bit in the 2nd half, but Beltre’s bum shoulder could keep him from hitting home runs, which will hurt him big time with the way Elias weights things.  All said, he’s a safe bet to at least net Seattle a comp round pick, even if he were to miss 4-6 weeks recovering from surgery some point during the season.

Erik Bedard is also a Type B at this point, but is certainly within reach of Type A if he can get back on the field and stay healthy for the rest of the year.  Staying healthy may be too much to ask from Bedard, but we can hope.

Jarrod Washburn is neither Type A or B, but his great 2009 has at least put him on the cusp of Type B status.  He can’t pitch his way onto the list, but he can try to hold on and keep his numbers decent for the rest of the season in hopes that other guys falter or remain injured.

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  • http://bleedingblueandteal.com Dustin Shires

    Why can’t Washburn pitch his way onto that list? He’s 3 points off Type B. If the player ahead of him pitches like 2008 Carlos Silva, and Washburn pitches like 2008 Tim Lincecum, then can’t he move up? It’s going to be based off 2008/2009 stats.

    He COULD, but I wouldn’t put money on it.

  • Brian

    Ichiro being a “B” Type free agent is another reason why relying on computer based statistic models without any human override for “abnormalities” is retarded. Ichiro is one of the greatest hitters the league has ever seen. He just does it “ugly”.

  • Slurve

    You get the Morse for Langerhans news?

  • http://www.marinercentral.com Lonnie

    It is my useless opinion that the process of determining the level of compensation that a team should get for a lost free agent is whacked, and I’m being kind.

    As is, we are screwed w/r/t Beltre. Even if he comes back this season he is going to be very rusty, so I don’t see him making it onto the A list. Personally, I’d like to see Beltre resign with the M’s for one year to up his value on the FA market.

    Bedard will never make it to the A list. He will best serve the Mariners by either:
    – Resigning with the club at a team friendly rate
    – Get traded for some decent low-level prospects.

    My opinion is that it is the teams best interest to resign Bedard to a 3, maybe 4 year contract. I wouldn’t offer him more than 12 mil per.

    Call me crazy, but I hope we resign Washburn. I’d love to see him inked to a team friendly two year deal. We currently just don’t have anyone anywhere near to being ready to contribute at the MLB level, and to lose both Bedard and Washburn means ’10 is in the tank.

    Lonnie