Rob’s been carrying most of the draft load but I’ve been itching to mention a couple things so here I go.

With the draft less than a week away it looks like we’re getting a clearer picture of what is going to happen with Seattle’s first three or four picks.

With the first pick the Mariners will almost certainly go for CF Dustin Ackley, although GM Jack Zduriencik is said to like RHP Aaron Crow as well.

Crow is one of those pitchers who figures to make it into the big leagues very quickly, but longevity could be a big problem.  Chris O’Leary and Kyle Boddy– both of whom I wholly trust when it comes to breaking down pitching mechanics– strongly dislike Crow’s mechanics, citing a pronounced Inverted W/Inverted L as well as other problems.  I don’t believe durability is going to be Crow’s thing, but it’s worth noting that since he figures to make it to the big leagues quickly I suppose he’ll have a shot at reaching free agency before seriously hurting himself.  It’s a gamble, and not one worth taking with Ackley and dozens of very good pitchers still on the board in my opinion.

Dave Perkin of Baseball America wrote today that LHP Tyler Matzek is a “distinct possibility” for the Mariners with their #2 overall pick.  I haven’t really heard Matzek connected to the Mariners and taking a high school pitcher with the second pick would be a bit of a drag, but I’d like to say I think Matzek is one of the safer high schoolers a team can take.  He’s already got great stuff but what got me is how safe his mechanics were on top of it.  He doesn’t seem to possess any of the bad habits found in the most injury prone pitchers like the majority of the highly rated arms for this draft have.  I’d like Ackley at #2, but Matzek would be an immediate second on my draft board and I’ll be extremely jealous of whatever team ends up with him.

Count on Ackley at two, but you never know.

Seattle’s other 1st round picks will be interesting.  First of all, there are so many very good arms ranked so closely that there is no telling who is going to be on the draft board for Seattle at #27.  Two names that are dropping because of hefty financial demands are RHP Tanner Scheppers and LHP James Paxton.  For a while it was looking like GM Jack Zduriencik was seriously thinking about Scheppers at #2 over Ackley, so you have to think that he’ll snatch him up at #27 if he’s available.  Funds should be available as the team has seemingly already committed to taking high school C Steve Baron at #33, as we mentioned a couple days ago.  Baron would come very cheap as a 2+ round reach, but he is a good player nonetheless who has seen his stock increase recently (Rob will have a full report posted sometime soon).  With money being saved at #33 it seems likely that Zduriencik is planning on pouncing on whatever high priced arm drops to them.  Baron is also a possibility at #51.

A quick word on Scheppers’ injury last year — rotator cuff and labrum injuries are very serious and can be career enders in some cases, but some believe Scheppers injury came from pitching at such a high level without much prior experience rather than a mechanical flaw.  Indeed his mechanics look sound outside of a rather abrupt deceleration, indicating that he could be fine going forward as long as he takes enough time to build up to the Major League workload.  He’s throwing bullets right now in the indy leagues so I think he should be fine.  That said, pitching overhand is an unnatural motion and even people with safer mechanics will get hurt.

USS Mariner put a draft post up this morning that also mentions LHP Matt Purke, RHP Kyle Gibson, CF/2B AJ Pollack and OF Brett Jackson as possible picks for the Mariners in the first round.  They also throw RHPs Drew Storen and Kyle Heckathorn’s names in there as wild cards.  I’d just like to mention that I don’t particularly like any these pitchers’ mechanics from a durability point of view.  Purke has a loopy arm action that causes his arm to lag, putting pressure on the shoulder.  I have a feeling this will be identified and fixed, though.  Gibson is already complaining of a sore forearm and has had a drop in velocity.  Storen looks similar to Crow and should probably remain in the bullpen for his own sake, and Heckathorn is a total disaster as I mentioned here.

And in case you’ve missed them, Rob has put together some mini reports for 15 of Seattle’s possibilities at numbers 27 and 33 in a three part series.