A reader emailed me a question that I thought would be worth discussing here for everyone’s benefit.

I was watching UNC over the weekend (The first time I saw Ackley play) and watching his swing it looks eerily close to Jeremy Reeds swing. If we are going to take him with the #2 pick, I am really hoping for something better then J Reed. Have you noticed that?

Indeed I did have a similar thought when I first saw Ackley but I haven’t been worrying about it.  Just because Ackley has a similar swing to Reed and shares a same general skill set with him doesn’t mean they’ll produce the same.

Ackley is the better talent no doubt, and not just in hindsight.  There is a reason why Ackley may go #2 overall and Jeremy Reed was a second rounder, and it has little to do with this year’s relatively weak draft class.  Reed hit a solid .339/.443/.512 in his final year at Long Beach State.  Great, right?  Ackley is hitting .412/.513/.776 for UNC right now.  Ackley also put up better numbers in his freshman and sophomore seasons than Reed did in his draft year.

Saying that Ackley is the superior talent based on a simple slash line is pretty flimsy though.  After all, if the draft were done based on who had the best numbers the results would be a lot different.  For further clarification I posed the question to Prospect Insider/ESPN‘s Jason A. Churchill this afternoon.  His immediate response was that Dustin Ackley is already what everyone hoped Reed would become in terms of skills.  He added that Ackley also possesses “quick twitch attributes” that allow him to play effectively up the middle and steal bases while Reed does not.

The parallels are there.  Both guys hit lefty and possess a smooth line drive swing and above average on base skills.  Both guys are fleet of foot.  Reed projected as a top third of the order bat and so does Ackley.  Both guys even split time between first base and the outfield.  But while they do a lot of the same things, Ackley does them better.  He’s a bigger, stronger, faster version of Reed.  If Reed were part of the 2009 draft class rather than 2002, the reports would list him as Ackley-lite.  It wouldn’t be a toss up between these guys.

I hope that helps.