Cliff Lee’s Trade Value

by ~ June 14th, 2010 at 9:34 am

GM Jack Zduriencik has to be close to raising the white flag.  The Mariners sit 11 games back and do not look like a team that can Colorado Rockies their way back into the playoff picture.  They look a lot more like a team that will be competing for the first overall pick of next June’s draft.  Soon it will be time for Zduriencik to start auctioning off what he can in an attempt to bring in some reinforcements for next year and beyond.  He doesn’t have a lot to work with, but one of his few trade chips is a pretty big one in ace Cliff Lee.

What is Lee’s trade value?  Today’s article from Yahoo’s Jeff Passan says just about everything I originally had in this post in far fewer words, so I defer to him:

It’s that time of year, and the only thing holding back …

1. Cliff Lee from extracting a king’s ransom is the plethora of other pitchers available at this deadline derby. None is quite like Lee, of course, and those in his neighborhood make more than his $9 million salary. In other words, he is the perfect mercenary: cheap (relatively), attached to two draft picks (for sure), playoff proven (check out last year) and unfazed by anything (remember this?) .

and

“I don’t care how much [GM Jack Zduriencik] likes draft picks,” one executive said this week. “They cost money to sign, and he can get established players through a trade.”

At least two top-level prospects, the executive suggested, along with a couple more low-level dreamers.

The other day I wrote about a scenario in which the draft picks made sense, but concluded that a trade for near-MLB ready impact prospects would be much better and, while the market hasn’t revealed the buyers just yet, should be there.  The executive’s assessment of what Seattle could get is about in line what I was planning to write here, although a little stronger.  I was going to suggest one near-MLB ready blue chipper (say, an MLB top 50 prospect), another near-MLB “B” prospect (Mariner equivalent might be Matt Tuiasosopo or Ezequiel Carrera; Michael Saunders if you’re lucky), and two or three toolsy A-ballers that may or not make it (think Joherymn Chavez, acquired in the Brandon Morrow trade).

For discussion:

1.) As a Mariner fan, would you rather see Seattle go on a run and stay relatively close to the division lead in order to keep the ballgames interesting (despite playoff odds hovering under 1%), or would you rather see the team continue to sink so that there is no hesitation in trading a guy like Lee or David Aardsma and to ensure a better first round draft pick for next year?

2.) Open rosterbation thread.  Let’s hear more of you (well thought out) Cliff Lee offers.

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  • AntsinIN

    Honestly I would prefer the M’s start selling soon, benefit from being first to market, and then basically use the rest of the season as an Open Mic Night for rookies and risks to see who sticks.

    As far as trades, Wilson Ramos from the Twins seems like the most logical fit, considering how Mauer is there for the next decade. A package built around Ramos+ should work, especially considering the plethora of mediocre-MLB-ready SP’s Minnesota has, they can throw us back any one of them to help eat innings til the end of the year.

    The Mets also make sense, though Fernando Martinez may be hard to pry away.

    As for shortstops, the other Mariner need, there just isn’t an MLB-caliber player in any of the contenders’ systems that are of interest, other than a throw in for a Lee trade.

  • MarinerMan6

    I for one hope they tank so we can trade Aardsma, Lee, Lopez, and whoever else. To be honest other than Gutierrez, Ichiro, Felix, and most likely Fister/Vargas I’d make everyone available for the right price.

    Cliff Lee is the best pitcher in baseball and we should expect a haul in return. I’d be looking for starting pitchers with upside (someone AA or so that could be #2/#3 and maybe someone in low A with a high ceiling) and at least one MLB ready ML position player (mainly SS, 1B, C, and LF). I’m hopeful that Ackley’s defense will be good enough we can start him at 2B next year, move Figgins back to 3B, and then look to really upgrade at places like 1B and SS.

    I think TB and the Twins are obvious targets. Dan Johnson in the TB organization is not on the 40 man roster and is blocked by Pena. He’s tearing up AAA and has never been given a shot–3rd in OBP and 1st in SLG% in the International League. Trevor Plouffe, SS in the Twins organization, Wilson Ramos–C (although he’s been terrible this year). These are just a few of the guys knocking on the door to MLB but when you are behind All-Stars you’ll never get a chance. This summer if he doesn’t resign with the Nats I’d love to see the M’s go after Adam Dunn to DH as well.

  • aerichner

    I’d keep Lee unless the Twins offer Ramos and arms or the Dodgers offer some pitchers. If it where any other year I’d say trade him without a doubt but the 2011 class being so good we might be able to get some good value with the extra 1st and sandwich pick. If someone drops we’d probably have to go overslot but for a college arm close to the majors I’d risk keeping Lee and taking my chances in the draft.

    I think we deserve a great package for him because of his salary, Type A status, etc but I dont think any team will give us a top position AND top pitching prospect so Im not completely sold on getting a top prospect plus some Luke French types. We’ll just have to wait and see.

    I sure wouldnt mind seeing Aardsma and Lopez get dealt. Aardsma can go to Minny with Lee for Ramos and 3 more players.

  • maqman

    The Ms are toast this season so sell if they get an acceptable offer. I’m pretty sure GMZ will do just that. To who and for what are impossible to say, I think he might surprise us once again. I just hope it’s a good surprise and not another exchange of Brandons. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lee go to Texas, they have the talent pool and he could get them to and through the playoffs. If they do get him I don’t think they will be able to keep him, but they will have a couple of draft picks to go with their memories.

  • daddude

    Jon I think everyone can agree that this season is done. This team just does not have the players on the roster who could make a run like the Rockies did last year. My question is if the Mariners keep Lee and the two draft picks next year would they have the money in their budget to sign them plus the top five pick that they are playing themselfs into? Last year there seemed to be some money considerations when Barbon was drafted. Also what is the situation with Bedard and a possible type “B” draft pick we could recieve for him if he decines his option at the end of the season?

    • http://proballnw.com Jon

      Baron and Franklin signed for slot. Having to save money for Ackley may have kept them from picking someone like Paxton who was asking for more than slot, but it was hardly a Jeremy Brown situation. Having 3 first round picks next year (should we keep Lee) wouldn’t be a problem.

      Don’t worry about Bedard’s status. Even if he pitches enough to earn Type B status this year the Mariners are not likely to offer arbitration. That’s too much guaranteed money.

  • mw3

    Honestly I’d rather have the team win 55-60 of the last 100 games. Trade Lee on July 31st if someone blows Z away. I just think most of this team comes back next year (Wilson, Bradley, Lopez and Aardsma) and figuring out a way to win with these guys is more important than trading Lee early or at all.

    Having said that if a true blue chip guy like Jesus Montero is offered or two major leaguers like Reid Brignac and Wade Davis jump all over it.