Last updated: 6pm

James McOwen’s epic hitting streak has led to a common question among fans:  Is McOwen a legitimate prospect? The quick answer is no, but let’s get into some specifics.

Making contact, hitting for average, and on base skills

Coming into the season McOwen wasn’t known for making great contact, whiffing 26% of the time in his first exposure to pro ball with Wisconsin in 2007 and 21% last season in his first year with High Desert.

This season he’s making better contact as illustrated by a 14% strikeout rate.  McOwen says opening up his stance a bit has helped him read pitches, but beyond that I’ve been told that this isn’t due to any significant changes to his swing, so it wasn’t a matter of getting him to stop wrapping the bat around his head (which he does) or anything like that.

This has more to do with experience and competition.  McOwen is repeating the level and is mature (to put it nicely) for the Cal League at 23 years old.  He’s learned to to be a little more selective this season but is still known for his aggressiveness.  That, paired with a weak crop of arms in the league this year, have helped McOwen put the ball in play more often.

He may be making better contact but his swing still produces a lot of ground balls– 67% in 2007, 54% in 2008 and 54% this season.  This approach isn’t going to help him hit for average without blazing speed and/or a lot of luck. Blazing speed he has not, but luck has been on his side.  McOwen’s .355 batting average is boosted by a .400 BABIP for the season with marks above .500 over the last few weeks.  If he wants to be truly successful he’ll have to turn a few more of those grounders into line drives.

McOwen walks at an average rate.

Hitting for power

As mentioned above, McOwen smacks the ball into the ground more often than not.  Ground balls don’t typically go for home runs, so it’s safe to say that power isn’t part of McOwen’s game.  This season he’s only hit five home runs in arguably the best home run hitting environment in affiliated baseball and ranks 7th in the High Desert lineup in slugging percentage.

McOwen would have to change the way he swings the bat to develop any type of a power game, and the physical tools are there for him to be produce at least average power.  That said, I don’t see him changing his game anytime soon.

Speed and baserunning

McOwen has average to slightly above average foot speed but has lost his stolen base prowess this season, getting caught 7 out of 12 attempts.

Fielding

I’ve only seen hitting and baserunning video of McOwen, but I am told that McOwen has below average range in center field but has enough range to cover the corner spots.

Arm strength

McOwen has a below average arm but doesn’t embarrass himself out there.

Conclusion

I’d love to be able to say that this hitting streak is McOwen’s coming out party and that fans should be anticipating his arrival in the big leagues, but it’s far more likely that after his 15 minutes of fame McOwens will fade into obscurity, perhaps popping up in the big leagues as someone’s fourth outfielder and being known as “the guy who had that streak a few years back.”  He just doesn’t possess the tools of a Major League regular.

We’ll get a better idea of where McOwen is at as a prospect once he gets promoted to AA West Tenn, possibly at streak’s end.

My 20-80 grades: [20-80?]

Tool	Present	Future
Contact/On base ability	45	50
Hitting for Power	35	35+
Speed/Baserunning	50	50
Fielding Range	50	50
Arm Strength	45	45

As you can see, I don’t see a lot of upside in McOwen, and the talent evaluators I’ve gotten responses from thus far do not either.  The main concern seems to be his age at this point.  He has to prove himself in a league where he’s not more experienced than everyone else.

You can view video of McOwen here and here.

Note: I have a few emails out that could bring back some more info, so keep an eye out for updates.