Master of Predicting the Breakout?
by Jon ~ July 12th, 2009 at 11:55 am
GM Jack Zduriencik has either been really lucky or has an incredible eye for talent, or perhaps a bit of both.
Franklin Gutierrez, Russell Branyan and David Aardsma were all picked up on the cheap and have gone on to have breakout years beyond all expectations. That is pretty good, but those aren’t the only breakouts he predicted.
Edwin Jackson was almost a Mariner over the offseason before a three team deal between the Tigers and Rays fell apart, and all he’s done is finally live up to all the lofty expectations placed on him 5+ years ago. As he approaches his first All Star Game, Jackson ranks 5th in the big leagues in ERA and 15th in FIP.
There is also a rumor going around that Zduriencik was on the verge of landing Ben Zobrist over the offseason, but the Rays decided against it with BJ Upton on the shelf for the start of the year. Zobrist has exploded, leading all AL position players in WAR. He’s at 4.5 wins above replacement at the halfway mark! He also leads the AL in isolated slugging (ISO), putting him ahead of monsters like Carlos Pena, Russell Branyan, Justin Morneau, Nelson Cruz– everyone. He’s also second to some guy named Joe Mauer in AL OPS, second to some guy named Jim Thome in AL BB%, and near the top of the MLB leader board in many other major categories.
This could be all luck, but if this is any indication of Zduriencik’s ability to find a diamond in the rough then the Mariners will be in great shape for a long time. It doesn’t mean he won’t miss occasionally– Ronny Cedeno looks like a whiff so far– but the cheap mistakes will be hidden underneath layers of cheap hits.
10 Responses to Master of Predicting the Breakout?
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Dustin Shires
July 12th, 2009 at 1:06 pm
Zobrist is 3rd in WAR.
Zobrist is 3rd in ISO.
Zobrist is 6th in OPS.
Moral of the story: Ben Zobrist has been raping the MLB. Who really cares if he’s 1st or 3rd in WAR and OPS. He’s near the top, and that’s a feat that nobody/few could have predicted.
Jon Shields
July 12th, 2009 at 1:08 pm
Whoops I must have just been looking at AL. Will fix.
Slurve
July 12th, 2009 at 7:32 pm
Man I really wish we had Ben Zobrist.
SABR Matt
July 12th, 2009 at 10:45 pm
*sigh*…too bad the Rays backed out on that one…Zobrist could be our SS right now.
Lonnie
July 13th, 2009 at 10:37 am
I think Jack Z may have whiffed on Hanananananananahan. I really, REALLY hate this trade.
Lonnie
Jon Shields
July 13th, 2009 at 10:53 am
That’s just because you were attached to Souza.. I think.
Dustin Shires
July 13th, 2009 at 12:18 pm
I don’t see how you can hate this trade… We gave up a minor league arm with what, a future in the bullpen? We got a useful 3rd baseman who is close to the top in fielding, and any offense we get from him is gravy. I’m totally satisfied with that.
Lonnie
July 13th, 2009 at 2:14 pm
I hate the trade because Souza was making huge strides this year once he was inserted into the starting rotation. He had been labled a reliever since the day he was drafted and it was great to see him get a chance to start and making the most of it. I believe that what he was putting together in West Tenn could have had a significant impact on the Mariners in the future.
Look at it this way, he was the closest and best thing to an MLB ready SP we have in our organization. If we lose Bedard and Washburn this fall, how do we fill those gaping holes? The FA market for SP is going to be crap this fall, so that leaves trades. How much talent is it going to take to land even one mid-rotation starter? That’s a butcherbill that makes me shudder. Souza could have, IMHO come in during ST and potentially won a spot away from the Vargas/Olson/RRS group, or supplimented the staff if we lose Bedard and Washburn.
From the perspective of what we got in exchange, I just don’t see the value of yet another all-glove, no-bat player. How many blackholes can this team carry?
Lonnie
Jon Shields
July 13th, 2009 at 4:14 pm
I agree with you to a point, Lonnie. When I first saw that we had acquired Hannahan I figured it would have been for some scrub I had never heard of. When I saw it was Souza I was a little disappointed, because he was indeed the most promising starter we had in the high minors until Cortes came along.
That said, I don’t agree that we need Souza for depth next season. He could probably pitch in a big league pen right now, but I don’t think he’d be ready for a big league rotation until late 2010 if that. Learning to be a good starter is a long road for non-elite prospects.
The A’s won the deal and I’m sure Z knows that he gave up a greater overall talent in Souza than he got in Hannahan, but he wanted a good gloveman and Billy Beane isn’t Dayton Moore or Omar Minaya– he’s not going to get swindled. It’s not a big enough “loss” to get upset about, in my opinion, because Hannahan is a clear upgrade and Souza is far from a sure thing.
It’s your opinion Lonnie and that’s fine, and I don’t wholly disagree with what you’re saying, but it’s just not enough to upset me, especially when I think about how Bill Bavasi would have traded Michael Saunders and JC Ramirez for Garrett Atkins at this point.
Lonnie
July 14th, 2009 at 8:34 pm
Oh, I’m not horribly upset. I just seeing a much bigger need in the very near future for SP, especially if so many folks get their wish and we lose Bedard and Washburn.
Also, I guess I carry water for players who aren’t annointed as the next great thing but succeed anyways. That explains my fixation on guys like Juan Diaz, Alex Liddi, and Nate Tenbrink.
Last year I did the same with another player who proved worthy of my fandom; Shawn Kelley.
Lonnie