Ryan Rowland-Smith is one of the most likable Seattle Mariners on the 40-man roster and everyone is pulling for him to succeed, but things aren’t going well for the Aussie this year.

When the Mariners shifted RRS back to the starting rotation last season he showed some real promise.  He was sitting 88-92 with his heater and had a curve that had potential to become a legitimate weapon.  He looked like he could become a solid fourth or fifth starter and came into the 2009 season planning on cementing himself in the rotation, even when it meant skipping the World Baseball Classic.

Unfortunately, he wasn’t the same guy.  Reports started leaking out of Spring Training that his velocity was way down.  Not many were all that worried because it was Spring Training after all, and he should be allowed some time to get his arm into shape.  His first start of the season was on April 10th, in which he sat 84-88 with his fastball and threw a softer, loopier curve than we had seen in the past.  He complained of a loss of range of motion in his throwing arm shortly after and landed on the DL.  He was diagnosed with tendinitis around the biceps and triceps.

After getting some time to rest up RRS has made seven minor league starts and his velocity is still a big problem.  After an outing in late-June he stated that he had regained his velocity despite sitting 83-87 on scout guns.  He was 84-88 in his last outing.

So what’s wrong with RRS?

The loss of range of motion is interesting.  Pitchers who supinate the release of their pitches often see their ulna bone lengthen which causes a loss of flexion in the elbow, a problem that cannot be corrected with surgery.  This can also lead to bone spurs/chips, as is the case with JJ Putz.  I haven’t found any video or photos that show it definitively, but some clips I’ve seen suggest that RRS uses a supinated release on his curveball (it’s pretty common on curveballs anyway), which could be the cause of his loss of range of motion.

I suppose the loss in velocity could be attributed to this elbow problem, but velocity drops are more commonly linked to shoulder injuries.  As far as I know, RRS hasn’t complained of any shoulder problems in the past, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t anything wrong.

The Verducci Effect states that pitchers under the age of 25 who have workload increases of 30 innings or more year over year tend to get injured.  RRS’ workload has been all over the map the last five years as he went from being a starter to a reliever and back and as a result hasn’t had his workload increased in consecutive years, but he did have a 56.2 innings increase between 2007 and 2008.  That doesn’t necessarily mean anything, but it’s worth noting.

I’ve also heard that the Mariners did a lot of tweaking to his delivery last season as they tried to make him more aggressive with his motion to max out his velocity.  I haven’t conducted a study to back this up or anything like that, but pitching injuries seem to often occur when a pitcher’s delivery is changed one too many times, especially in the middle of a season.

Another thing worth pointing out is the infamous Inverted W.  RRS definitely flashes it, but I’m not quite sure how much of a problem it is for him.  Remember, the Inverted W isn’t terrible in itself, it’s only a problem when it causes the pitching arm to lag.  After studying some video I took last month I don’t think RRS is in as much trouble as I originally thought, but there is a little bit of a timing issue there.  I’d need some higher quality video to figure out just how troublesome it is, so I’m just cautiously throwing this out there as a possibility.  If it is causing a timing problem he could be at risk for shoulder problems– labrum, rotator cuff, etc.

Another mechanical flaw that RRS possesses is his locked plant leg as he releases the ball.  It’s a flaw that many pitchers have that’ll make you cringe if you watch it frame by frame.  The problem with it is that it shoots a power surge back up through the body that scrubs much of the forward momentum and forces the pitcher to produce most of the velocity with his arm.  As you can imagine, pitchers with this defect often fall victim to arm injuries, especially in the shoulder.  Oh, and not to mention problems in the knee, hip and back.

video

I don’t know if RRS is having any shoulder issues, but the giant leap in workload, the changes to his delivery, the timing problem caused by the Inverted W and the locked front leg are an ominous combination of issues. Many serious shoulder injuries crop up slowly and can be dismissed for a long time as general post-start soreness and/or inflammation and only manifest themselves in the drop of velocity initially.  There’s a good chance that RRS’ drop in velocity this season has a lot to do with his shoulder and to a lesser extent his elbow wearing down.  I can’t see any reason why he’d be sitting in the mid-80s all year unless there was something physically wrong.

I hope it’s not the case, but I fear it’ll take a serious injury for the team to discover what exactly is wrong before getting him fixed up.

I’m an RRS fan like everyone else and this is one instance where I hope I’m completely wrong.  I hope his velocity and command perk up over the next couple weeks and he is able to resume his MLB career.  We’ll see.