The Mariners haven’t committed to a young first baseman like the newly acquired Justin Smoak since Tino Martinez in the early-mid 1990s.  Since Tino was traded to the Yankees prior to 1996, the Mariners have relied primarily on free agency to fill the first base position–  Paul Sorrento (1996-1997), David Segui (1998-1999), John Olerud (2000-2004), Richie Sexson (2005-2008), Russell Branyan (2009)– until this season when they traded for Casey Kotchman, then Branyan and finally Smoak.  There has been no real development of first base talent since Tino, or acquisition of newly developed young talent as is the case with Smoak.

But while first base was left to the veterans, the Mariners did have some highly touted players coming up the ranks during that span.  Using Baseball America’s rankings as a reference point, let’s see how Seattle has fared when dealt an elite MLB prospect going back to Tino’s final season with the Mariners (1995).

Cream of the crop (ranked 1-15):

Alex Rodriguez, #1 coming into the 1995 season in front of Ruben Rivera and Chipper Jones.  Other appearances: 1994 (#6).  You know this story well enough.  A-Rod was the #1 overall pick in 1993 and starting in 1996 established himself as one of the premier players in the game while with the Mariners.  Towards the end of his stay with Seattle and throughout the rest of his prime years he was arguably the best player in the game, at least until Barry Bonds went absolutely bonkers and Albert Pujols established himself.  Seattle got five spectacular seasons out of Alex as well as two draft picks that were not spent wisely (Michael Garciaparra and Rene Rivera).

Jose Cruz Jr., #12 coming into the 1997 season between Paul Konerko and Scott Rolen.  Other appearances: 1996 (#23).  Cruz had been the #3 overall pick in the 1995 draft.  He got off to a fine start with Seattle in 1997 before being traded at the deadline to Toronto for bullpen help in the form of Mike Timlin and Paul Spoljaric.  Spoljaric was solid in 1997 and borderline useful in 1998 before being traded for no real return.  (His is one of the few athlete autographs I’ve ever gotten.  Jorge Sosa was another.)  Timlin was solid in 1997 and good in 1998 before becoming a free agent, leaving a draft pick that was spent on Jeff Heaverlo, a decent pitching prospect derailed by injuries and off the field issues.  Cruz finished second in Rookie of the Year balloting that year behind Nomar Garciaparra and went on to have a fine career, topping out as a minor star for a few years.  Cruz could have brought Seattle some stability to a left field position that was unsettled for years and years had he been retained, but instead was one of the several top prospects used to help patch up a shaky bullpen that year.

Ryan Anderson, #22 coming into the 2002 season between Nick Johnson and Angel Berroa.  Anderson had been hovering around the top of BA’s rankings for a few years at this point, topping out at #7 in 1999.  Anderson drew obvious comparisons to Randy Johnson because of his height (6’10), handedness (southpaw), upper 90s fastball and, towards the end, a slider that showed as a plus pitch.  The comparisons earned him the embarrassing “Little Unit” nickname.  Anderson was also often compared to CC Sabathia, against whom he was measured and raced up the ranks.  Anderson struggled with his maturity and control, but was ultimately knocked out of baseball due to various arm injuries.  Anderson topped out at AAA, but appeared to be an ace in waiting until the final injuries turned him into a professional chef.

Felix Hernandez, #2 prospect coming into the 2005 season between Joe Mauer and Delmon Young.  Other appearances: #40 in 2004.  A bonus baby and quick riser through the system, King Felix dazzled us in his debut and a few years later has established himself as a true ace and one of the best starting pitchers in baseball.  Felix has given Seattle about five seasons worth of good to awesome production so far and is locked up long term.

Dustin Ackley, #11 prospect coming into the 2010 season between Carlos Santana and Alcides Escobar.  The #2 pick in the 2009 draft, Ackley is progressing just fine at the plate and at second base.  He is already up with AAA Tacoma and should make his MLB debut later this season.  So far, so good.

Ichiro, the #9 prospect coming into the 2001 season between Ryan Anderson and Nick Johnson, would also be considered an elite prospect, but the lines are blurred given his age, his success and star status in Japan, the money Seattle dished out for negotiating rights, and so on.

Justin Smoak, the #13 prospect coming into the 2010 season between Alcides Escobar and Madison Bumgarner, fits right in this group as well.

Second tier (16-50):

Marc Newfield, #29 coming into the 1995 season between Ray Durham and Latroy Hawkins.  Other appearances: 1994 (#35), 1993 (#43), 1992 (#17), 1991 (#31).  Newfield, a 22 year old outfielder at this point, was not new to the prospect scene, having been ranked in BA’s top 50 every year going back to 1991 after being picked 6th overall in 1990.  In the season preceding this ranking, Newfield hit .349/.413/.593 in 492 plate appearances with AAA Calgary.  Newfield only made it into 199 (unsuccessful) plate appearances with Seattle before being dealt at the 1995 trade deadline as part of a package that brought the Mariners rotation help in the form of Andy Benes.  Newfield flashed some ability in stints with the Padres and Brewers in the following years, but saw his last MLB action in 1998 at age 25.  According to a write-up John Sickels did a while back, “bad defense, poorly timed injuries, lack of opportunity, and doubts about his work ethic” are what did him in.  Seattle did manage to get a very good player for their stretch run with Newfield as the centerpiece going to San Diego, however.

Carlos Guillen, #27 coming into the 1997 season between Aramis Ramirez and Chris Carpenter.  Other appearances: 1996 (#74), 1999 (#89), 2000 (#73).  Guillen was acquired from the Astros in 1998 as part of the Randy Johnson trade and he made his Mariner debut that same year.  As you can see, Guillen’s stock dropped in 1997 after a dismal performance in AA.  He rebounded the following year before being traded to the Mariners, but all momentum was halted when he tore a ligament in his knee in April 1999, ending what would have been his rookie season.  Guillen went on to be Seattle’s only viable shortstop since the departure of Rodriguez, but was still frustrating in the field and his bat wasn’t developing as planned to that point.  Bill Bavasi dealt him to the Tigers for next to nothing where his power jumped immensely and he became an All-Star.  A little more patience and Guillen could have been really good for Seattle, but was instead discarded prematurely just as he was entering his physical prime.

Rafael Soriano, #27 coming into the 2003 season between Scott Hairson and Joe Borchard.  Other appearances: 2002 (#30).  The converted outfield quickly became one of the best live arms in the system and eventually all of baseball once he was placed on the mound in 1999.  Soriano featured surprisingly consistent mechanics for someone of his experience, a blistering fastball, sharp slider and a promising changeup.  Soriano was plucked from Tacoma’s rotation in 2003 to help in Seattle’s bullpen, pitching brilliantly: 53 big league innings with 1.53 ERA, 11.5 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9.  Approaching the big leagues, shoulder injuries fueled questions about Soriano’s durability, but it was his elbow that really set him back as he required two Tommy John surgeries approximately a year apart in 2005 and 2006, which obviously kept him off the field for the most part those seasons.  2006 saw his arm stay healthy, though he did miss time after a scary moment that saw a Vladimir Guerrero line drive strike him in the head.  After all the injuries it was clear that Soriano was a reliever only, so Bill Bavasi shipped him off for rotation help before the 2007 season.  Unfortunately, that rotation “help” was Horacio Ramirez, a non-tender candidate at the time of the trade who didn’t get any better with Seattle.  Soriano has continued to battle injuries, but the last couple of seasons have seen him establish himself as a solid big league closer.

Jose Lopez, #38 coming into the 2003 season between Michael Restovich and Chris Snelling.  Other appearances: #70 in 2004.  Believe it or not, Lopez was lauded by BA as a stud defender and a threat on the basepaths as recently as their pre-2004 prospect rankings.  That, when paired with his excellent contact abilities, made him quite a prospect.  His discovery of Fanta and Funions altered his stock quite a bit, but he has proved this season that while his range is zapped there is little wrong with his glove.  Lopez hasn’t hit for quite enough average for his hack-tastic ways to be ignored and he never quite developed the power to go with his new body type.  Lopez has been a fine player for Seattle, but his inability to stick at shortstop or even second base have kept him from reaching the ceiling set for him years ago.  Lopez has struggled enough this season that Seattle may not be able to get much for him in the trade market as his tenure with Seattle undoubtedly comes to a close within the next year or so.

Chris Snelling, #39 coming into the 2003 season between Jose Lopez and Andy Marte.  Other appearances: #46 in 2002, #98 in 2001.  Most should be familiar with Snelling’s story.  The Aussie was a great all around hitter with the ability to hit for average, walk and hit for some power.  Unfortunately, Snelling was both fragile and reckless, and could never stay healthy.  No body part was safe, and Snelling seemingly spent more time on the DL than on the field.  Snelling reportedly almost made the Mariners out of Spring Training as a 19 year old in 2001, made his debut in 2003, and could be seen in stints with the Mariners up through 2006.  He was traded before the 2007 season with Emiliano Fruto to the Nationals for weak hitting DH Jose Vidro.

Jeremy Reed, #33 coming into the 2005 season between Darric Barton and Zach Duke.  Other appearances: #25 in 2004.  Reed was the minor league center piece of the haul Seattle obtained for Freddy Garcia.  Reed was expected to hit for a high average and walk a lot, making him ideal for the top third of the batting order.  He was also expected to supply at least adequate defense in center field (although poor routes followed by highlight reel catches tricked fans into thinking he was a great defender).  Reed’s debut with Seattle couldn’t have gone any better, but the offense quickly dried up.  He couldn’t hit for average and his walk rate slipped below average, leaving him with a career .253/.311/.356 batting line over 1369 big league plate appearances.  Reed was sent to the Mets in the Putz/Gutierrez trade as New York’s replacement for Endy Chavez and has struggled to stick in the big leagues ever since.  Reed won a PCL batting title as recently as 2008, showing that he may be another AAAA burnout.

Clint Nageotte, #45 coming into the 2004 season between Jeff Allison and Ryan Wagner.  Other appearances: #72 in 2002, #76 in 2003, #73 in 2005.  The thing I remember most about Nageotte was that he was super sweaty.  I doubt that has anything to do with his rise and fall as a prospect.  Nageotte had a power fastball and an absolutely devastating slider.  The slider is actually attributed to his downfall.  He threw it a lot (A LOT) and it produced a ton of whiffs and strikeouts for him, but also shredded his arm.  Nageotte, now 29, hasn’t appeared in the big leagues since 2006 and hasn’t been seen outside of the indy leagues since 2007.

Adam Jones, #28 coming into the 2007 season between Jose Tabata and Colby Rasmus.  Other appearances: #64 in 2006.  Jones, a former supplemental first round pick, got a couple brief and unsuccessful looks with Seattle in 2006 and 2007 before heading to Baltimore the next offseason as then-GM Bill Bavasi made a desperate trade to try and save his job.  Erik Bedard pitched well enough when healthy, but broke down with hip and shoulder injuries.  The injuries weren’t all that unpredictable given Bedard’s track record of fragility.  Jones’ lack of plate discipline has kept him from breaking out thus far (410 MLB games), but he’s still just 24 and has time.

Jeff Clement, #42 prospect coming into the 2008 season between Austin Jackson and Josh Vitters.  Other appearances: #33 in 2006, #62 in 2007.  Clement’s failure will always be magnified by the draft class he came out of.  The #3 pick in a first round that could go down as the best ever (if it hasn’t already), Clement was probably picked based on team need (catching, lefty power) over best available player, and the best available players on the draft board at that time are now many of the very best players in the league.  Clement showed some flashes of hitting ability, but never showed much competence on the defensive side and was ultimately forced off the position by reoccurring knee problems.  The organization gave up on Clement and dealt him to Pittsburgh as part of the haul that brought in Jack Wilson and Ian Snell, and was given the first base job coming out of Spring Training this year.  He failed to hit enough to hang on to it, however, and is back in AAA.

Third tier (51-100):

Ron Villone, Russ Davis, Jason Varitek, Freddy Garcia, Desi Relaford, Gil Meche, Joel Pineiro, Derek Lowe, Chris Snelling, Shin Soo Choo, Travis Blackley, Kenji Johjima, Brandon Morrow, Dan Cortes, Carlos Triunfel, Chris Tillman, Phillippe Aumont, Greg Halman, Michael Saunders, Ryan Christianson

Other:

Ben Davis (as high as #10), Joe Borchard (as high as #12), Franklin Gutierrez (as high as #31) and Brad Nelson (as high as #23) were all picked up by Seattle as post-hype prospects, but still early in their careers.  Davis, Borchard and Nelson in particular were already seeing their rising star diminish, so it’s hard to count them in this exercise.  Gutierrez still held some promise, but had seen his stock fall due to neglect more than anything.  I feel like there really should be a mention of Salomon Torres here somewhere, but he last appeared on BA’s list just before our cutoff in 1994 (#22).  Torres was acquired from the Giants in 1995 with only 137 MLB innings under his belt.    Antonio Perez (as high as #16) wasn’t included because he was the only player of the top two tiers that didn’t play for Seattle’s AAA affiliate or with the big club.

So what does this all mean?

As far as Seattle’s elite prospects go, the success rate has been, unsurprisingly, very high.  The only outright bust they’ve had in that department since 1995 was Anderson, whose performance wasn’t the problem.  Two of those players (A-Rod and Ichiro) are future Hall of Famers while another (Felix) is on that track as well.

Moving down a tier to where Smoak was ranked coming into last season (#23), the failure rate increases but there are still plenty of successes; a trade off you might expect.  The busts include Newfield, Snelling, Reed, Nageotte and, so far, Clement.  Injuries played a role with all of these players.  Snelling and Nageotte were ruined by their injuries, Clement’s value took a major hit when he had to move off catcher because of his knees, while Newfield and Reed were slowed down by various injuries, perhaps keeping them from getting into a rhythm.  Newfield and Reed just couldn’t cut it in the big leagues, injuries or not.  That happens.

Meanwhile, Guillen tapped into his full potential, while Soriano, Lopez and Jones have become solid players.  Soriano might have been a top of the rotation starter had he been able to stay healthy, but that his fallback is the closer’s role is huge.  Lopez and especially (more realistically) Jones have time to develop a little more, but even if they don’t most teams are going to be happy developing that level of talent.

So now that you’ve gotten a review of some of the most talented prospects to come through Seattle over the past 15 years, how do you feel about Smoak’s chances?  I feel like he has a very clear path to above average-ness and perhaps stardom as long as he can avoid the injury bug.  Big league ready position players near the top of these lists don’t bust very often, but we’ll leave that study for another day.

That the Mariners have Smoak and Ackley in the elite prospect club with Michael Pineda knocking on that door as well (BA recently ranked him 11th among prospects still in the minors at midseason) should have you feeling optimistic.  Smoak and Ackley could be one helluva dynamic duo going forward.  Pineda has more obstacles to cross, as the list of talented pitching prospects brought down by injuries is never ending: Anderson, Nageotte, Jeff Heaverlo, Bobby Madritsch, Roger Salkeld and on and on and on.  But that is one fearsome trio.

Have the Mariners ever had so many truly elite prospects all knocking on the door at the same time? Not in a while.  There were decent groups of players coming up at the same time in the early 2000s and mid 1990s, but weren’t as highly rated as what we’re seeing now.  However, there are a couple groups of prospects that hit the big leagues at the same time that precede BA’s rankings.

In the early-mid 1980s the Mariners had several promising rookies emerge led by Alvin Davis and Mark Langston, but an even more impressive crop popped up a few years later in the late 1980s.  Edgar Martinez, Randy Johnson, Jay Buhner, Omar Vizquel, Ken Griffey Jr. and Erik Hanson all debuted in the late ’80s and were producing regulars by 1990, while Tino Martinez made his debut in 1990 and became a regular by 1992.  BA’s top 100 lists only go back to 1990, with Tino being the only one of these guys that qualified for that list.  He ranked #40, but was up to #18 before the 1991 season.  Griffey would have helped cap a 1989 list and you’ve got to think that at least one of those other guys were in that upper tier back then.  I would think that one or both of Johnson and Hanson would be there.  Anyone remember how these guys were viewed back then?  Hindsight clouds things.

Point being, the Mariners haven’t been in this situation for a long time.  Here’s hoping they can build around these guys.