So You Want Cliff Lee: Rays

by ~ July 8th, 2010 at 8:00 am

The Tampa Bay Rays aren’t known for buying big names at the deadline, but they usually can be found at least kicking the tires and there is reason to believe they may finally be willing take the plunge this time around.

Their window of opportunity may be closing.  The Rays will remain competitive in the long run thanks to a well developed farm system, but they may have to sit 2011 out, or at least run from the outside lane.  Two major lineup cogs are scheduled to become free agents and aren’t expected back in Carl Crawford and Carlos Peña, and three prominent bullpen arms could also be testing the market in Rafael Soriano, Grant Balfour and Dan Wheeler.  There will also be possible holes at DH, catcher and one other spot depending on how the infield and outfield story lines ultimately shake out.  That’s a lot of turnover for a team that is rumored to be cutting payroll next season, and rookies aren’t always going to rock n’ roll out of the gate. 

I can understand why the Rays might be willing to give up a few pieces and go for it this season, especially with the way the Red Sox continue to struggle with injuries.  Also, getting Cliff Lee would keep him from going to one of their AL East or Wild Card foes (ie most of the teams rumored to be in on Lee).

Given their bevy of talented youth, the Rays could acquire Lee any number of ways.  Like we have with the rest of this series, we’ll stick mainly to immediate help and start with B.J. Upton, who has been in the dog house in Tampa Bay for lack of production and visible effort (or some such), and was connected to Lee talks recently.  It wasn’t clear whether Upton would go to the Mariners or to a third team, but he could make a little bit of sense for Seattle.  Upton would be a nice buy low for any team right now as a guy who has fallen short of expectations after a good run between 2007 and 2008, and is still just 25 years old.  He is only under club control for two more seasons after this one, however, and if he ever does tap into that potential he’ll be an expensive guy to try and keep around.

For Seattle Upton would provide more depth alongside Michael Saunders and Greg Halman at center field in case anything ever happened to Franklin Gutierrez, and a shiny new “third center fielder” to plug into Safeco’s spacious left field in the meantime.  Upton provides an immediate and probably long term upgrade over Saunders, although if Upton fails to play up to (modified) expectations the two could make for a lethal platoon on both sides of the ball.

Staying with their big league club, Reid Brignac and Matt Joyce are a couple guys that the Rays could probably afford to give up and could interest Seattle.  In fact, both guys have been connected to the Mariners in different trade rumors.  Brignac would provide Seattle with an alternative to Jack Wilson and some longer term position stability at shortstop.  Brignac looks to be at least an average performer on both sides of the ball (which is very valuable), but has some offensive upside.  He hit 56 homers from the left side of the plate between 2005 and 2007.

I’m inclined to compare Joyce to Saunders, but with a higher floor and lower ceiling.  Take Saunders, deflate his issues with lefties and plate coverage, his physical tools and cool nickname and you have Joyce– I think.  I take Joyce over Saunders at this point (in a win now situation), but it would be nice to have both and let the best man win.

While neither is a premium, blue chip talent, the Rays would probably like to keep them if possible.  Brignac could replace Jason Bartlett, who is looking less and less like the team MVP he was billed as a couple years ago and more and more like a non-tender candidate.  Joyce would help with the loss of Crawford and possibly Upton.

Wade Davis is another guy that could be put on the table.  Keith Law’s 15th best prospect coming into the season, Davis throws hard (sitting low 90s as a starter) and has a good curveball and the makings of a good slider.  His changeup is rarely used and still very much a work in progress.  Davis’ rookie campaign has been up and down, credited partly to his inability to put hitters away, something that should change as he gains more confidence in throwing his secondary offerings to big leaguers.  Davis is a potential mid-top of the rotation pitcher.  While a heckuva prospect, the Rays have the depth to absorb such a loss.

Jeremy Hellickson is one of the reasons why Davis could be expendable, but Seattle might prefer him to Davis in negotiations.  Hellickson is a well rounded pitcher, with solid pitches across the board (his changeup being his best) and good control.  He doesn’t have the stuff that Davis has, but his polish allows him to profiles as a mid-top of the rotation guy.  John Sickels likened him to Roy Oswalt coming into the season.  Hellickson would be in the big leagues for a lot of clubs right now, but the Rays just don’t have room in their rotation.  Many Rays fans are calling for him to replace Davis.  Hellickson has a 2.21 ERA with 104 strikeouts to just 26 walks over 105.2 innings for AAA Durham this season.

Those are just the immediate contributors that could make sense for both teams in my mind.  The Rays obviously have many other appealing players who Seattle could target up and down the system, making it difficult to say “Player A and/or Player B would have to be involved,” like we’re able to in some systems (say, the Twins and perhaps the Reds).  If Seattle could get one of Davis or Hellickson to go along with one of Brignac or Joyce that would be a very nice start.  I’m not sure how to value Upton at this point, and suspect that if he were going to be involved he would go to a third team (I think I read the Brewers getting Upton and sending Seattle prospects in one rumored scenario somewhere).

The Rays have enough mid level arms with some upside (eg. Matt Moore, Alex Torres, Jake McGee, among others) to fill out any deal.  They don’t have as much position player depth nearing the big leagues outside of those already mentioned and Desmond Jennings, who isn’t going anywhere.

I don’t think the Rays will get Lee, but they have the pieces to make for some interesting scenarios.  If you’re dealing with the Rays, who are you demanding?

Previously: Mets, Cardinals, Rangers, Twins, Mets redux, Reds


  • mw3

    Brignac and Davis would be a deal I would be happy with just the two guys. If Upton is part of the deal I would hope he or Gutierrez is moved as part of it for the pitching and C,1B,SS part of the deal I want.