I believe that…

…David Aardsma is a goner

The Mariners bullpen has been awful this season and losing Aardsma would make the late innings of non-Felix starts all the more unbearable, but I still think he’s on his way out.  As mentioned before, Aardsma is about to get expensive and he’s not the reliable reliever you want to give closer bucks to.  Meanwhile, most contenders are looking for relief help and Seattle should be able to sit back and field offers, picking the best one.

There’s no telling what Seattle can get for Aardsma, but every once in a while teams strike gold when shipping out their relievers.  Relievers get overvalued this time of year.

…Brandon League and Jack Wilson aren’t going anywhere

If Aardsma is on his way out, I don’t think League will be dealt unless the Mariners are absolutely blown away by an offer.  The Mariners need some talent in the bullpen just to get through the season, and they obviously need some quality arms that they can bring into 2011.  If Aardsma is dealt and no established relievers are brought in, League figures to replace Aardsma as Seattle’s closer while costing a million or two less next season.

Everyone seems to be gung ho about the idea of dumping Jack Wilson, but I can’t really see it coming unless, as usual, the Mariners get an offer they simply can’t refuse.  As I’ve said before, Wilson is still the guy GM Jack Zduriencik traded for and then signed to that 2 year, $10M deal: Great defender, injury prone, lousy hitter.  Have things gone worse than expected?  Sure.  Wilson has made more errors than normal, been on the shelf more than expected and has looked very overmatched since coming to the American League.  But I can’t see the Mariners abandoning ship at this point.  Not without a clear alternative.

News flash: Josh Wilson still isn’t very good.  He’s better than he was last year, but that just means he’s gone from the 26th man to the 25th man.  And how much of that new “success” will carry over to next year and beyond?  I can guarantee you that the Mariners feel a lot better with Jack as their starting shortstop next season than they would be with Josh.

The only reason to trade Wilson is to try and save money.  Josh (or whoever) plus a few extra million for improvements elsewhere is probably better than Jack plus no extra money for improvements.  But it’s not always as cut and dry as that.

…Jose Lopez will be shopped aggressively

You don’t have to be Miss Cleo to make this prediction.

There is little reason for the Mariners to keep Lopez beyond the trade deadline.  Saying he’s been bad at the plate wouldn’t come close to doing his performance justice, and pair that with Chone Figgins needing to be moved back to third base and Dustin Ackley primed to take the second base job for years to come and you’ve got a guy that is on his way out after the season regardless.

Lopez won’t be the easiest player to move given his offensive struggles, but he shouldn’t be too difficult to move either given his low salary and previous performances.  The Phillies reportedly employ enough former Mariner scouts and advisers that still like Lopez that they are at least somewhat interested, and they have a short term need at third or second base with Chase Utley out, making them a logical fit.  The Tigers are another club that could use some help after losing Brandon Inge to injury.

Also:

• Probably not going anywhere: Russell Branyan.
• Almost certainly being traded: Casey Kotchman.
• Could the Mariners actually make a buy?  Chris Iannetta is one player that comes to mind as someone who could be available and who would help the Mariners next year and beyond.