What Went Wrong: The Mariner Offense

by ~ July 27th, 2010 at 12:26 pm

While the Mariners were becoming media darlings and becoming picked as World Series contenders by TV analysts and the like, many of us started to get nervous.  GM Jack Zduriencik and company did a fantastic job of quickly building a team that had a shot, but could only do so much with the payroll being widdled down yet again.  There were missing pieces, and just about everything had to go right for the Mariners to compete for the AL West crown.

The Mariner offense wasn’t supposed to be great.  It wasn’t even supposed to be good.  It was just supposed to score enough to win most of Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee’s starts while keeping the team afloat when the other starters toed the rubber.  But even that was too much.  The team has gone just 19-16 in games started by Felix or Lee despite the chance that those two go 1-2 in Cy Young balloting this fall.  The Mariners are dead last in most offensive categories this season.  So what went wrong?

Chone Figgins signed with the Mariners following a season in which he hit .298 and walked over 100 times.  The walks are still there for the most part– he figures to tally his second highest walk total this season– but the rest of his offensive game has been out of whack.  His contact is down a bit, strikeouts are up, and when he’s made contact he hasn’t hit with much authority.  His season line sits at just .230/.331/.271.  That’s not going to cut it for a guy expected to replace Adrian Beltre’s offensive production.  Scott opened this “What Went Wrong” series with a post on Figgins here.

I’m not sure what was expected from Milton Bradley when he was acquired from the Cubs.  After a year in which he saw his power dry up with the Cubs, might he return to his career norms?  Looking back, that .257/.378/.397 Cubs line looks pretty darn good right now.  Bradley has been out of sync for much of the year and is currently hitting just .205/.292/.348.  He’s expanding the zone more than ever this season which has helped fuel a career high strikeout percentage.

Casey Kotchman, a slick fielder, replaced Russell Branyan, a big bopper, at first base.  Kotchman wasn’t expected to match that production, but there was some hope that Kotchman could revert to the hitter he was prior to some injuries and other issues that were blamed for keeping him from reaching his potential.  Kotchman showed some flashes of it, but in the end was no different than the hitter we’ve seen for the past couple years.

Jose Lopez went from hitting for enough power to be useful with the bat despite his hacktastic ways last season to being one of the worst offensive players in the game this year.  Lopez wasn’t great last season, meaning he didn’t have much room to fall and still be a good hitter.  But some combination of the possible discomfort of playing a new position, bad luck, pitchers continually adjusting by throwing him more pitches out of the zone, and perhaps a knee injury have caused him to plummet from a guy whose 2011 option looked like a good value not that long ago into a guy that will quite possibly be non tendered after the season.  Read my Lopez-themed “What Went Wrong” post here.

Franklin Gutierrez was off to a hot start this season but his offensive production has completely evaporated over the past couple months.  Following a great month of May Gutierrez was hitting .294/.388/.439 and wasn’t far from a 100 walk pace.  Since May he’s hitting just .197/.247/.309.

Ken Griffey Jr. wasn’t expected to do a whole lot, but following all the fluff stories about his knee finally being healthy and him coming to camp in better shape, we hoped he could at least duplicate what he did last season (in a smaller role, preferably).  Of course, he didn’t.  He was awful as Seattle’s primary DH and didn’t hit a single home run before his benching and subsequent retirement.  Conor wrote about Griffey’s struggles in a May “What Went Wrong” post.

Meanwhile, the Mariners have gotten less offense than they anticipated at other positions as well, even if the weight of those struggles haven’t compared to those above .  Jack Wilson’s offense didn’t rebound and his injury replacement Josh Wilson didn’t do much either.  Rob Johnson was so bad last season that offensive improvement was thought to be a given, but he hasn’t done anything with the bat, while Adam Moore struggled early and then was injured, keeping him from bringing that much needed offensive boost.  The only offensive surprise on the club has been Michael Saunders, but even he was scuffling a bit up until about a month ago (he’s raking this month if you haven’t noticed).

Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee did their part while Jason Vargas and Doug Fister have done more than expected.  The offense didn’t have to do a lot, but they needed to do more.  Figgins didn’t have to hit like last year, Bradley didn’t have to duplicate his .999 OPS performance with Texas a couple years ago, Lopez didn’t have to continue to improve and a “rejuvenated” Griffey didn’t have to revert to his Cincinnati level of production.  They just needed to not be terrible, and that’s exactly what they all were.

So what can we expect going forward?  Figgins has had an inconsistent career with the bat, so it’s reasonable to think that he can rebound next season, especially after settling in to his new surroundings and hopefully moving back to his best defensive position.  Bradley may very well be finished, but he’s still young enough and still sometimes looks like his vintage self that it’s too early to make that call.  The DH position will hopefully be upgraded next season, with a potential time share of Branyan and Bradley looking like a semi-appealing option.  Kotchman’s offense at first base has been replaced with Justin Smoak’s.  Smoak has struggled so far but hopefully he can get through the growing pains this year and become a productive hitter next season.  Gutierrez figures to find a happy median between this year and last year, but I think he is capable of lifting his offensive game a bit more.  Hopefully Moore can make it back to the big leagues this year and, like Smoak, take his lumps now so that he can contribute next season.  Saunders is going to make it tough for the team to seek an offensive upgrade in left given what he’s shown this season and especially this month.

Still, especially if the Mariners are unable to acquire another Cliff Lee (I would guess not), the Mariners might need some more offense to compete next season and beyond, and given the current setup of the team it may not be possible to add much next season.

See other entries in the “What Went Wrong” series here.

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  • moethedog

    What went wrong is that the front office bet on 3 horses who came up lame.

    Griffey’s return was always a lousy bet offensively. You can argue that he might bring a gravitas to the locker room…but not that he brings production to the lineup. From 2007 to 2008 to 2009 he showed steady decline as a hitter. Last year, when he was a les than adequte DH, he was still dependent on situational efforts. What you saw this year was the continued decline, now accelerated becasue he was a 40 year old who chould do nothing but cheat on fastballs. A bad signing because it limited the chase for other DH type bats.

    Kotchman has never been an adequate offensive performer (for a 1B guy) minus 2007. That year he was fueled by a career high .305 BABIP, which is a number he has never even approached in any other year. The fact that his CAREER HIGH BABIP is .305 suggests his real limitations as a hitter. Terrible signing!

    Figgins’s career numbers are skewed by a BABIP in ’07 of .391 and his 101 walks last year. Both numbers he never has approached in any other season. In essence, his value as an offensive player is inflated by tose numbers. The M’s paid dearly at that inflated price. this signing was lauded by many…but it turned out to be a lousy one. he’s been a headache and a punch and judy hitter with almost no punch and very little judy.

    Milton Bradley? In essence the M’s traded one wasted contract for another. Problem is that it turns out that Silva’s contract (based on performance with the Cubs) was less wasted than the office imagined. But Bradley has proven to be a better citizen than I thought possible…and the real lesson is don’t give inflated contracts based on one good year…which is what the previous office did for Silva. Look at his last three years with the Twins and you get a sub .500 pitched with a WHIP above 1.3. He did throw some innings, averaging a 190 over that span….but lots of innings and back of the rotation status don’t deserve $12M a year. All the same…We acquired Bradley to jump start the offense…Despite the fact that he averaged just over 400 PA’s per year over the last 5 seasons (including about 485 per year over the last two).

    In essence the office decided to pay Bradley about $27K for each plate appearance. Bad trade.

    What went wrong? The front office made 4 bets and each one failed miserably. You can try to sugar-coat it…but you can’t hide it.

    No bad bets made with Lopez and Guti. Lopez just has not produced at the plate and Guti remains a plus player…despite an off offensive year. But they weren’t bad bets.

    The other 4 were.

    moe

    • http://proballnw.com Jon

      I disagree on a few counts as to which moves were bad “bets” (or process) and which weren’t. I have a post in the works on that topic, however.

  • mw3

    Thankyou Jon. While other sites and Mariners media get caught up in biases and bullspit you put together concise and timely analysis.

    You are by far the best at doing what you do writing about the Mariners and I wish you had the traffic of some other sites and the Times or P.I. because you deserve it.

    Please keep up the good work? I know it has to be hard in a season like this.

  • moethedog

    I’m looking forward to it, Jon. Thanks. Your original post was great, BTW.
    It will be interesting to see your take. Griffey and Kotchman were the most egregious of the bets. They were bad, and easly predictable as such.

    Interestingly, the Bradley bet was really on his citizenship and stability. Minus his one stint, he has really been much better here than I anticipated. However, his track record indicates a guy who can play about 60% of the time, that’s it. But it is only becasue Silva rebounded that makes this a bad acquire…so it is a bit more complicated than the other guys. However, a GM is paid to appraise talent and predict performance. Z missed on Silva (as we all did…but we don’t get paid).

    Figgins was paid to be the difference between a contender and a playoff team. Not entirely though his play the M’s have no chance at either. However, his play has been a factor in that result. Next year he will be a 33 year old slap hitter with no bop. The year after that he will be 34….most certainly we’ll see some decline in some of his skills. He needed to make a difference this year to be a good bet….unless the M’s bounce back and challenge next year. He has indicated that he is not a positive clubhouse presence, however. That should not be discounted.

    There is reason for some optimism looking to the future. Vargas and Fister has proven to be solid rotation type guys. League can pitch. Felix is Felix. SOMEBODY has to have a good year at the plate next year…which means some improvement. Ackley has talent. Pineda is a MLB #2 right now. Mike Wilson can mash and walk (however, I think the front office has given up on him). Josh Wilson can be a valuable (and cheap) utility IF guy. Branyan commands respect in the locker room. Etc……But Figgins, Kotchman and Griffey are not a great part of that optimism. Ergo, they were bad bets.

    Looking forward to your post

    moe

    • Coug1990

      I disagree that the Bradley-Silva trade was bad. The thought process behind it was sound. If you make sound dicisions, in the long run you will come out ahead.

      That Silva is having a better season than Bradley while not irrelevant, is immaterial to the process involved.

      In addition, do you really think that Silva would be having the type of year that he is having in Chicago if he were still in Seattle? Frankly, I do not think so.

      There is the decision matrix popularized in baseball by Paul DePodesta that says a Good Process with a Bad Outcome is a Bad Break. That is all this is.

      • http://proballnw.com Jon

        Exactly.

  • Jim

    I like your site and your comments.

    Would be interested in your take on Wak. Last year was great, yee ha, but I can’t say Im impressed with Wak this year.

    For starters, for a “little ball” team, the M’s don’t run much, all the more disappointing because of their speed. Steals are rare, hit and run rare.

    When they do run, it’s at wierd times. The other day, Figgy leads off with a single, Guti hits a fielder’s choice to the SS, they get Figgy at second. So now Wak puts on the steal, and Guti steals second. But now they can’t sacrifice bcz there’s an out. ??? Next guy pops out, next guy grounds out, Guti is LOB.

    So, I see three major offensive probs beyond the individuals. First, Wak isn’t helping the players out with the hit and run. The hit and run draws 2b out of the hole and opens up the field for hitting. Wak’s totally relying on the hit to generate rallies, with an occasional sac bunt or squeeze. Second, they ain’t runnin! With Figgy, Guti, Bradley and Ichiro, the Ms could steel alot of bases and put pressure on opposing pitching. That would help the hitters out too. And third, of course, there’s no credible power hitter. figgy came out of a powerful lineup in Anaheim. He probably got alot of good pitches because of the hitters behind him. Not so here. Even Branyun is at best a modest threat.

    I guess there are alot of management related reasons why the M’s aren’t hitting. Wak just doesn’t know how to get hits.

  • moethedog

    Jon,

    Your “good process” matrix basically excuses ALL GM mistakes. All GM moves were done with some well intended process….but not all needed a bad break to be a bad move.

    Signing Griffey had a “good process.” It was still a bad move that didn’t need a “bad break” to make it such.

    Ditto with Kotchman.

    Coug, GM’s are paid to make productive decisions….not just sound ones. Unless Bradley rebounds next year that was not a productive decision…regardless of how sound it was. An example (in another sport…and not quite the same as Bradley/Silva) is that that Portland TrailBlazers passed on M. Jordan to draft S. Bowie. It was “sound” in the sense that the Blazers already had C. Drexler, quite a player, who played the 2 guard, as did Jordan. It was a bad decision in that Bowie was constantly injured and M. Jordan was simply the best player ever. Nobody complements that as a “sound” decision.

    Z made 4 big moves with positional players. Currently 2 are complete flops, and Figgins is a flop with some potential upside as is Bradley. All in all…as they were each intended to add to the M offense, none were worth a darn this year. Interesting, Bradley may be the best acquire of the bunch…because he has behaved and he has a year to redeem himself with the bat.

    And, BTW, NOT signing Beltre can be considered a Z move, as well. Combine his performance with the non-performance of Figgins and you get a doubly bad double move.

    I like Z. Minus the Lee acquistion, not much he’s done has gone real right this year. Oh…Fister, too. I’ll give him an “A” with pitchers….and an “F” with bats.

    • http://proballnw.com Jon

      Good intentions and good process are very different things. Signing Griffey was not good process. The team chemistry and nostalgia angles certainly made it more palatable to many, but the move was definitely a poor one at the time based on what other options were out there from a performance standpoint.

      That matrix absolutely does not excuse all GM mistakes. Again, intentions and process are not the same thing. Obviously every GM makes a move in hopes of getting better. That does not make it good process.

      Many of Bill Bavasi’s moves were BAD process. That is, without looking at how it turned out, you can go back to the time of the deal and point out why it isn’t a good move. Carlos Silva was way overpaid because back of the rotation arms like his are a dime a dozen. The haul given up for Erik Bedard was ridiculous given Bedard’s history of injury and the fact that the team overachieved the previous year and probably wasn’t one player away from contending.

      Zduriencik hasn’t been perfect, but he’s made a lot of GOOD process moves. The Putz/Gutierrez trade saw him recognize how overvalued (and, in the case of Putz, overpaid) a couple of his relievers were and he sent them off for cheap additions that could thrive at Safeco (Guti, Chavez, Vargas). Knowing the value of relievers (the acquisition of Aardsma was very much a good process move) while understanding how to take advantage of the ballpark = good process.

      To simplify, imagine if the Mariners went out and gave Adam Everett $10M this offseason. Everett is terrible nowadays. He can’t hit a lick, and his once godly defense is declining as he ages. He is not worth $1M, let alone $10M. So if the Mariners signed him for $10M and he performed as he normally does, how does the matrix excuse their move? It was obviously a stupid move. Bad process, and them not getting their money’s worth is poetic justice. Now, if Everett went on to miraculously hit 40 homers, does that mean the Mariners made a great sign? Of course not. It’s still a bad call, but the Mariners just lucked out.

  • maqman

    I’m okay with Z, he’s made some bad calls and some good ones. In my mind the good outweigh the bad. The big club is bad, but not all of it and the farm is much better than I thought it would be in such a short time. Bradley/Silva was a good move and looking better as time goes by and Silva melts. How would you like having him and Zambrano on the Ms with their contracts? Zambrano makes Figgins look like a bargain basement special. Smoak, Vargas, Fister, Saunders, Guti, Pineda, French and our AA prospects will compensate us for this sewer dump of a season. My jury is out on Wak at this point, he needs to man up and soon.
    Thanks again for the input Jon, you’re the best thing on the Ms blog beat.

  • shortstack55

    Okay, I don’t post much but I think there is still quite a bit of hope for next year. Here are some suggestions:

    Cliff Lee:
    Trade Milton Bradley for damn near nothing (not losing too much) besides to take his contract. Possible suitor might be San Diego, as they have a hitters friendly park (http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor) and aren’t getting much more production out of LF from their current starter Oscar Salazar (http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5092). This move is basically to clear some space, as Milton is making a solid $11M this year. Get a single A prospect back at best and maybe some cash. That frees up that $11M to be able to help resign Lee.

    Hitting:
    We have quite a few prospects coming up quick that should inject us with some runs to make a good run each of the next 4 years.

    C: Adam Moore instead of Rob Johnson
    1B: Justin Smoak being a little more consistent, hopefully.
    2B: Dustin Ackley if he shows he’s ready.
    3B: Chone Figgins moves back to 3B, maybe restores him to normal (Option of keeping him at 2B if Ackley not ready, Brandon Inge and Jorge Cantu are both available as free agents)
    SS: Jack Wilson and Josh Wilson tandum
    LF: Michael Saunders also more consistent
    CF: Franklin Gutierrez is worth keeping for defense even with his 2010 #’s
    RF: Ichiro is well, Ichiro
    DH: Need a free agent no matter what. Branyan and Bradley can’t do it anymore so I’d just get rid of them. I’m thinking Brandon Inge, Jorge Cantu or homerun happy Adam Dunn

    This lineup is fairly young and gives a pretty decent shot to put up decent numbers. Again, we won’t be the Yanks, but that can be a solid lineup with only one to two transactions.

    Pitching:

    #1: Felix Hernandez, obviously
    #2: Cliff Lee, if you can make it happen. We were paying him $9M and add in Milton’s salary of $11M if you can unload him brings you to net $0 with a $20M a year contract.
    #3: Erik Bedard/Michael Pineda, possibly sign Bedard to a $1M contract with a $2M club option for 2012 if he ever comes around and Pineda being a good backup option
    #4: Michael Pineda/Jason Vargas, good options either way
    #5: Jason Vargas/Luke French, French needs to prove himself in the majors, but he’s tearing it up in the minors.

    You can make runs for the next couple years with this possible rotation that looks like: Felix, Lee, Bedard (if we resign), Vargas, Fister/Pineda. You can’t convince me that the front two can’t get you 40 wins with a revamped lineup and the end of the rotation can’t get another 40 as is now. Adding in the bat or two, I can’t see us at below 90 wins with upside to about 95. That’s a division championship and some wild card opportunities if another division team plays out of their minds.

    Again, this would probably cost an extra $10M-$15M a year but if you make a playoff appearance in 2 of the next four years, we can pretty easily make that up I feel.

    Thoughts?