A lot is being made about this “race for Stephen Strasburg,” but does Seattle really have to have the worst record in all of baseball to get him?  Having the first pick in next summer’s draft would certainly help their chances at obtaining him, but perhaps they could make due with the second or even third pick.

The Washington Nations, currently baseball’s worst team by three games, weren’t able to sign their first round pick this season, pitcher Aaron Crow.  At first the Crow camp wanted a big league deal at $9M, which is a bit over the top even if Crow is close to ready for major league duty.  As the negotiations went on Crow’s agents, Randy and Alan Hendricks, eventually dropped the big league demand and the dollar figure down to $4.4M.  Washington GM Jim Bowden was hoping to sign him for $2.25M, but ultimately upped the offer to $3.5M, but to no avail. 

With their inability to sign Crow this season, doesn’t it make sense that the Nationals would want to steer clear of Strasburg, a Scott Boras client?  Boras, as you probably know, is infamous for squeezing every last drop of money from the teams he deals with. 

Jim Callis of Baseball America, one of the nation’s leading authorities on MLB prospects, told the San Diego Union-Tribune recently that he thinks Strasburg “could command a big league deal worth upwards of $7M.” 

While the Washington Nationals could feel pressured to take Strasburg after missing out on Crow, it seems that a lot of people are convinced that they’ll pass on him.  Top talents dropping down in the draft due to “signability” concerns is nothing new.  Just about every year there is a player projected to go somewhere high in the first round that falls to some lucky team because his demands were too high.

The San Diego Padres have seen themselves in that situation.  In 2004 they had the first overall pick but passed on projected number one Stephen Drew in favor of Matt Bush due to signability concerns.  Drew ended up falling all the way to 15. 

San Diego, tied with Seattle for the second worst record in baseball, could find themselves in a similar position next summer.  Strasburg is a hometown product, so there will be pressure from the fan base to pick him if possible, and he is someone that could help turn the Padres’ rotations into an unstoppable force, but they may not be able to afford him.   There has already been rumors that the team could cut their 2009 payroll down to almost half the size of 2008′s, way down to $40M. 

Would the Padres be wise to spend a sizable chunk of their whittled down payroll on a top pitcher?  You can never have enough pitching, but the organization already has one of the elite starters in all of baseball signed long term in Jake Peavy, and a formidable number two in Chris Young.  Would they prefer to fill another hole for less money?

Unless a change in ownership this offseason significantly drops Seattle’s payroll, the Mariners have more than enough cash to ink Strasburg if drafted and plenty of experience dealing with Boras.  Let’s just hope the team finds themselves in that position.  If we end up with the worst record it’s a lock, second worst and still very possible, third pick and it’s a long shot, but plausible.

 

Photo Source
OtherSources: MLBTR, San Diego Union-Tribune 1, 2