Branyan’s Mariner Outlook

by Jon ~ August 13th, 2009 at 1:33 am

Cleaning out my draft box.  Erasmo went first, now Branyan.  Other partial posts that have been sitting in the draft box that I may hastily pull together and publish this week: Felix Hernandez, the trade market, and the possibility of an extension; Mariner clubhouse chemistry and what happens once Sweeney, Griffey, and others inevitably leave; Human umpires versus computer umpires.  Any interest in those topics?  I also have a 2009 farm report that I’ve been putting off for so long that it needs to be overhauled.  I’ll try to get that done this month.

Do the Mariners want Branyan back?

I don’t know for sure, but I would assume they’re open to bringing him back in the right deal.

Seattle will be looking to fill the first base and DH role, and Branyan would be the best available option at either position.  I like Mike Carp, but he’s Lyle Overbay without the great defense, which makes him a fringe starter at best.  Brad Nelson is intriguing, but an unknown quantity at the big league level (and minor league level, for that matter).  Bryan LaHair? I can’t believe he’s still around.  Jack Hannahan? Not enough bat for first base and his glove is better served elsewhere.  Rich Poythress? Give him another year at least.  Matt Tuiasosopo?  Only if he proves he can’t stick at third, but even then his bat isn’t an ideal fit at first base.

Some of those in house candidates can be relied upon to fill one of the openings, but counting on them to fill both is a major gamble for a team intent on winning the division.  Branyan would be a perfect fit to return in 2010 and will be one of the best power options on the free agent market.

Beyond the performance, I believe the Mariners will want to keep as much of the veteran leadership intact as possible, which means they’ll want a guy like Branyan back with the expected departures of Ken Griffey, Mike Sweeney, Adrian Beltre, etc.

Does he want to come back?

I’m sure Branyan would love to test free agency now that he has established himself as an everyday big league slugger, but I read some time back that he feels he owes it to GM Jack Zduriencik and manager Don Wakamatsu to return to Seattle if they want him back.  The temptation of his first big time paycheck could erase that sentiment, but I feel like he’ll indeed be back if the team wants him.  We’ll see.

What kind of extension makes sense?

When the talk of extending Branyan comes up there are always a few that bring up the busted contracts of Richie Sexson and other aging sluggers in the same mold.  Sexson was signed at age 30, put up one monster season, followed that with a streaky but somewhat acceptable performance, before his career skidded to a very abrupt halt.  The Mariners got their money’s worth for 1 1/2 seasons, but found themselves with one of the worst contracts in franchise histroy shortly thereafter.

This is where the free agency temptation comes back into play.  The Mariners can’t risk overpaying Branyan, who will be 34 next season.  Geoff Baker has suggested a 2 year, $10M offer, which I would be very happy with.  Branyan would still be an amazing bargain should he keep performing, but wouldn’t become an albatross if he were to fall apart like non-juicing, mid-30s bashers seem to do.   I might go a bit higher than $5M on year one if necessary, but certainly no higher on year two.  A one year contract would be ideal, but chances are Branyan would look for better offers elsewhere if that’s the best he could get.

6 Responses to Branyan’s Mariner Outlook

  1. brownie12
    brownie12

    All those topics sound interesting. How long do you think Felix will be a Mariner will the Mariners give him a big contract and does he want to stay in Seattle?

  2. moethedog
    moethedog

    If Mike Carp is Lyle Overbay…..that ain’t bad. His best years show a .300-.312 BA and OPB of .370-.390 and Slugging pushing .500. That’s no worse than Branyan’s year this year, and you’re willing to give him $10M. If Carp is Overbay then he’s in Branyan’s class.

    If Carp is a ..300-.380-.490 hitter-15-20 HR guy(an Overbay) at his best then he compares favorably to Mariner 1B over the past 16 years.Tino Martinez in ’95 and Sexson in ’05 had better years. Sorrento in ’96 & ’97, Segui in ’98, Olerun in ’01 &’02, and Sexson in ’05 had numbers more or less comparable…and nobody thought they were slouches.

    Konerko, Garko, Billy Butler and Overbay, himself, are having that type of year, this year.

    Until we sign Teixeira (who has better power..but the other numbers are comparable this year)…you can live and flourish with that.

    Call Carp up. Give him the bat.

    Keith

  3. Jon Shields
    Jon Shields

    Lyle Overbay without the glove is a decent first baseman, but by no means a long term solution. Overbay in his best seasons is a 2-2.5 WAR player. That’s obviously an asset, but not considering that first basemen are usually counted on to carry an offense.

    Branyan is having a better year than Overbay. Overbay walks more and hits for a better average, but Branyan is outslugging him in the tougher league.

    I’d be okay with Carp in the short term, but unless he dramatically changes his player profile the team will want to upgrade at some point.

    I think of Carp as a ~1.5-2 WAR player. This year Overbay figures to be between 2-2.5. Branyan looks like he’ll be about a 3 this year. Ideally, I want a guy at 1B that will consistently be between 2.5-4, especially if you’re not getting much offense from other infield spots.

  4. wazzy
    Brandon

    Bryan Lahair..I looked up his numbers not too long ago, and if i remember correctly, he’s been killing the ball in AAA. Did he do that last year too?

  5. moethedog
    moethedog

    Lahair has an OPS of .902 at Tacoma this year. That is better than Carp. But Lahair is in his third full year at the AAA level (and had half a season before that)….and is 26 years old.

    He has improved his OPS numbers the past two years at Tacoma.

    But not many guys, I think, suddenly make the leap from AAA to the majors and then become very productive at 26.

    Carp is in his first year at that level..and is 23. More of an upside in my view…lots more.

    Keith

  6. wazzy
    Brandon

    I would never argue that LaHair is better than Carp. I was just shocked to see those numbers from LaHair. I would have expected worse..

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