Dayton Moore’s Moneyball
by Jon Shields ~ August 31st, 2009 at 3:08 pm
Dayton Moore became the Kansas City Royals GM early in the 2006 season. That year the team went 62-100. In 2007 and 2008 they managed records of 69-93 and 75-87, and currently sit at 50-80 this year. The team has performed better than the Allard Baird teams that perennially lost 100 games, but everyone is baffled by the five year extension handed to Moore today. It’s especially confusing considering that Moore had an option year left on his deal, meaning the team could have waited another season to see if Moore was the guy to turn the franchise around.
Moore’s strategy has been interesting to me for a while. With Moneyball bringing so much attention to the value of OBP, Moore has been mocked for acquiring notorious hackers such as former Mariners Yuniesky Betancourt, Jose Guillen, Miguel Olivo and publicly coveting Mr. “If OBP is so important, why don’t they put it on the scoreboard?” himself, Jeff Francouer. But Moneyball was all about finding market inefficiencies in order to get the most out of a small payroll, and OBP is no longer a market inefficiency. The Tampa Bay Rays were credited last year for making defense the “new OBP.”
So while I am not saying Dayton Moore is a good GM by any stretch, I think I can see what he’s trying to do and his head is in the right place. Hackers have very little value now, so Moore thinks that low OBP players are his market inefficiency. Again, I’m not saying this is the best way to go, but before OBP came into the forefront was there anything “wrong” with guys like Betancourt, Guillen, Olivo, Mike Jacobs or anyone else? To most, not really.
Of course, his acquiring of hackers isn’t the only thing he’s done that has brought on criticism. First of all, he’s not getting these “undervalued” free swingers as cheap as he should. Guillen’s contract is ridiculous, and he should have been able to get Betancourt without surrendering one of the organization’s top pitching prospects. The problem there is that Moore doesn’t realize he’s overpaying. He seems to suffer from Bill Bavasi syndrome when it comes to free agents, as he’s been handing out massive deals to relievers, role players, etc. But beyond all that, he’s fielding poor defensive teams and blocking guys like Kila Ka’ahue.
Through all of it, I’m interested in seeing how long Moore will think he can build a winner with “undervalued” low OBP players. What are the odds he makes it to the end of his extension?
