Top 25 Seattle Mariners Prospects, 8/09
by Jon ~ August 26th, 2009 at 6:46 pm
This report was supposed to come out in Spring Training, but was put off until all affiliated clubs were in season, then until the draft, then until international free agency opened up, then until the trade deadline, and then until the draft pick signing deadline. Luckily, I started running out of dates to push it back to, so here you have it. Pushing it back was probably for the better, because since I started the original draft I’ve become even more of a minor league and player development junkie and have been able to see all but four of these guys in person, on video, or both.
I would be lying if I said this was 100% original content. I’ve borrowed generously from multiple online sources and have worked my modest connections to no end, but I’ve made sure to inject as much original thought as possible to make the read worth your while.
Please don’t get too riled up about the exact placement of each player as you work your way down the list. If I could come up with a better way to display this report without using the typical “Top Prospect List” format, I would. I like rankings too, but when you get past the top tier of prospects it becomes exceedingly difficult to order 15 grade-C prospects as you try to consider probability versus upside, performance versus projection, a reliever versus a shortstop, a 17 year old versus a 23 year old, and so on. There is a reason why most of the big name outlets only rank up to 10-15 prospects– it gets tough after that. Since this is a Mariners themed website I wanted to profile as many prospects as possible, so do me a favor and blur the lines a bit as you get towards the halfway point.
Feel free the compare this to the last rankings we did back in December, which were admittedly rushed.
You can see video of most of these guys at Pro Ball NW’s collection of Mariner prospect videos.
Note: I haven’t finished crosschecking but wanted to get this out, so there may be a few changes here and there as I continue to make sure this is as accurate as possible. Enjoy!
Seattle Mariners top 25 prospects
1. |
Dustin Ackley, CF/1B02/26/88 (21) Unassigned |
Ackley lacks the plus power and possibly the arm to be considered a legitimate five tool prospect, but he is solid across the board and should hit for average and get on base at a great clip. He’s fast and quick enough to steal some bases and should have good range in the outfield. His arm strength is in question as he hasn’t had a chance to showcase it since having Tommy John surgery prior to the 2009 college season. His sweet swing, knowledge of the strike zone, gap power and speed make him an ideal hitter at any of the first three spots in the batting order. I think Ackley has a chance to peak as a ~.300/.400/.500 hitter, and the “John Olerud with speed” comparisons seem valid at this point. Ackley lacks any major weaknesses, and his balance, high probability and proximity allow him to top this list. Ackley will not be assigned to a minor league team this season after signing a major league deal, so the first time we’ll see him will be in the Arizona Fall League with the Peoria Javelinas.
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2. |
Mike Saunders, OF11/19/86 (22) MLB Seattle |
Saunders has been heralded as a five tool prospect in the past, but injuries and high strikeout rates tempered expectations coming into the 2009 season. After spending the first part of the year on the DL, Saunders has reestablished himself as a top prospect and now as a big leaguer. Saunders can be described as “Ackley-lite with more power,” as he fits into the same general skill set but will not make quite as much contact, draw quite as many walks, or show quite the same level of speed and quickness on the basepaths. Saunders has the physical tools to hit for power, but his swing isn’t conducive to high home run totals. Instead he’ll drive balls into the gaps and occasionally elevate a few balls over the wall with possible 20 home run power. He’s fast for someone of his size, both on the base paths and on defense. He should be able to steal double digit bases as he learns how to read pitchers and can play plus defense in the corner outfield spots while serving as an adequate backup in center. Saunders is a great drag bunter, which should allow him to reach base even when he’s scuffling at the plate.
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3. |
Carlos Triunfel, INF02/27/90 (19) AA West Tenn |
Triunfel was the number one prospect coming into the year, but has lost practically the entire 2009 season to a broken leg and injured ankle. He’ll still be young for his level in 2010, but losing the entire season certainly hurts his prospect status. Triunfel has great physical tools and has shown great contact skills, good speed and flashes of power. The Miguel Tejada comparisons seem valid, though I see Triunfel as a better overall athlete. The power hasn’t fully manifested itself, but he’s taken some steps in the right direction and he’s expected to become a middle of the order bat one day. That would be even more valuable out of the SS position, but he’ll probably end up playing 2B, 3B or RF. Some believe he’s older than his declared age, which wouldn’t be all that surprising. If true, his stock falls slightly, but he’d still be a good prospect if he turned out to be 20 or 21. Triunfel broke his tibia, which I’ve heard is a tougher injury to bounce back from than that of the more common fibia break, so if he wants to reclaim the top spot on these lists he’ll have to prove that he is healthy and hasn’t lost any mobility. He’ll get a chance to do just that in the Arizona Fall League.
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4. |
Adam Moore, C05/08/84 (25) AAA Tacoma |
Moore’s development has been slowed by injuries and the presence of Jeff Clement, but both roadblocks are behind him and he’s just about ready for big league action. He is an offense first catcher, but isn’t hopeless behind the plate like Clement. Moore has a great compact swing that should allow him to hit for a decent average and some pop. He has shown good power in 2007 and 2008, but hasn’t quite brought the same pop to 2009. As a right handed hitter, his line drive stroke will help him get around Safeco Field’s deep left field walls. The new front office sees him as a future middle of the order hitter and has seen him as the catcher of the future since day one. Defensively, Moore still has a lot of work to do when it comes to footwork, limiting passed balls and wild pitches, and game calling, but he has shown great improvement and has a good arm. Rob Johnson has gained enough traction that he’ll be tough to pass up on the 2010 depth chart, but rookie catchers benefit more from bench roles than other position players, and Moore can certainly learn a lot from Johnson and manager Don Wakamatsu.
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5. |
Rich Poythress, 1B/DH08/11/87 (22) AA West Tenn |
Poythress was known as one of the top collegiate hitters available in the 2009 draft, and is solidifying himself as such by jumping straight to and performing at AA after a quick tuneup in Arizona. Offense will be his calling card as he can’t run and isn’t much with the glove. The power and walks should be there, but time will tell whether he’ll be able to hit for average. Poythress is bigger than Paul Konerko, but that’s the Major League offensive comparison that seems to fit the best at this point.
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6. |
Juan Carlos Ramirez, RHSP08/16/88 (21) A+ High Desert |
Watching Ramirez on the mound, you may feel like you’re looking at a couple of Seattle’s top pitching prospects of the last 6-7 years. His build and smooth throwing motion may remind you of Rafael Soriano while his mannerisms point to Felix Hernandez. While Ramirez gets top billing among Mariner pitchers on this list, he’s got a long way to go before he dominates big league hitters like Rafy and the King. Ramirez’ fastball has touched the mid 90s but sits closer to 91-92. Many believe there is more velocity tucked away in there, and I tend to agree. Based on his size and motion there is no reason that he can’t sit 93-94 consistently as he continues to fill out and mature physically. Ramirez repeats his delivery well for someone his age and has improved his command since debuting in the States in 2007. While his walk rates have spiked back up this season, I believe that has more to do with him nibbling more in arguably the most hitter friendly environment in affiliated baseball than a regression of skills. Ramirez’s secondary stuff needs work. His slider and changeup are well below average at this point. There have been reports in the past of a promising curveball, but based on the reports it’s unclear whether it’s something he still has in his arsenal. High Desert is a tough place for any pitcher, and it has certainly hurt his overall stat line. But a 3.66 road FIP hints that he’s handling the Cal League and should be ready for AA in 2010. Ramirez will not be a fast riser without dramatic improvement, but his ceiling as of now appears to be as a good middle of the rotation starter or a shut down reliever.
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7. |
Dan Cortes, RHSP03/04/87 (22) AA West Tenn |
Cortes was considered the Royals’ top pitching prospect before being sent to the Mariners in exchange for Yuniesky Betancourt. The trade was bad for the Royals any way you slice it, but they could have been more willing to part with Cortes because of some off the field problems that keep cropping up. Cortes is listed at 6’6 215 and has the fastball to match. In the past he’s sat consistently 92-95 with the ability to hit the upper 90s with his fastball, and his curve had gotten rave reviews as well, but there are some reports that he’s lost a tick or two on his fastball and some bite from his curve. I’m not sure how accurate those reports are or if he’s bounced back. Control is Cortes’ biggest problem. Having walked 75 men in 111 innings this year, Cortes consistently struggles with control more than anyone on this list, including reliever Joshua Fields. Given his solid fastball-curveball combination, lack of a third pitch and command issues many see Cortes as a future setup man, but it’s far too early to give up on him as a starter. If he can tighten things up and come up with an adequate changeup he could be a good #2 or #3 starter for the Mariners.
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8. |
Dennis Raben, RF/1B07/31/87 (22) Unassigned |
When drafted, many thought the barrel chested Raben was advanced enough to make it to the majors in less than two years. Unfortunately, he has missed the entire 2009 season after having microfracture surgery on his knee. Still technically an outfielder, Raben’s future is as a first baseman, especially after surgery. Raben is Seattle’s 2008 version of Poythress in that he went in the second round, has huge power potential and a great idea of the strikezone. His swing can get a bit long and making consistent contact could be a problem, but he hasn’t had enough time as a professional for anyone to know just where he’s at in that regard. If he can’t hit for average, Raben profiles as a three true outcome hitter in the same mold as Jack Cust and a few others. It will be interesting to see how much rust has accrued when Raben makes his first appearance next season. Raben is progressing well in his rehab, and will begin testing his knee shortly.
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9. |
Matt Tuiasosopo, 3B05/10/86 (23) AAA Tacoma |
It feels like Tuiasosopo has been around forever and he’s scuffled a bit as the Bill Bavasi Mariners aggressively shoved him up the ladder, but he’s finally gotten some traction as a 23 year old in AAA. Good tools, great pedigree, stellar makeup– Tuiasosopo finally started hitting in the second half last season and continued it with an impressive showing in Spring Training this year. His once terrible defense was getting better reviews as well, but as Spring Training came to an end he starting having some pain in his throwing elbow. Surgery was ultimately required and he missed three months of important development time. But that time off may have been the best thing for him, as he whipped himself into the best shape of his career while rehabbing in Arizona. The visibly slimmed down version of Tuiasosopo has more agility to the point that he’s getting starts at 2B for Tacoma, a thought that could only invoke laughter one year ago. Offensively, Tui has been on fire since returning to the Tacoma lineup. He can hit the ball hard to all fields, has been getting better at turning on inside pitches for power, and he walks at a good clip. I think Tui has a very good chance at becoming a big league third baseman that can hit in or near the middle of the order. At very least, he should be able to be a 5 position utility player with some pop off the bench, which is pretty valuable in itself. Don’t fall asleep on Matt Tuiasosopo.
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10. |
Phillippe Aumont, RHRP01/07/89 (20) AA West Tenn |
The 2007 first rounder has some of the best pure stuff in the entire system. He has so-so command of a four seamer in the mid-upper 90s, a low-mid 90s two seamer with a ton of movement down and in to righties, and since raising his arm slot has come up with devastating two plane curveball. His mechanics are ugly and he has trouble repeating them, and may have lead to a degenerative hip condition that should keep him out of the starting rotation for the duration of his career. He’d be in the top five as a starter, but now that he’s clearly a reliever his stock falls. He’s still the number one relief prospect, and has the stuff and makeup to be a shut down closer. Aumont will pitch against some advanced competition in the Arizona Fall League, and should debut sometime in 2010. However, it wouldn’t be that surprising to to see him get a September callup this season if a spot on the 40-man roster opens up. The Mariners can use any extra arms, and it would benefit him to work with M’s pitching coach Rick Adair before heading off the the AFL.
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11. |
Jharmidy De Jesus, 1B08/30/89 (19) Rk Pulaski |
De Jesus’ stock has dropped slightly this year, but I still like his chances at becoming an impact player for the M’s one day. After a successful US debut last year, De Jesus was curiously demoted to Pulaski to start the season and was moved off of 3B. After scuffling initially, De Jesus has turned it around with the bat, but in cutting down on his strikeouts and increasing his walks he has seemingly sacrificed some power to do it. The tools and the approach are there, and the organization was willing to move him off of third base so quickly because they believe he’ll produce enough offense to be good 1B, so it’s far too early to worry about his dipping ISO. Last season he started as a SS, so while he was moved for a reason, 1B shouldn’t be much of a problem after an adjustment period.
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12. |
Gabriel Noriega, SS09/13/90 (19) Rk Pulaski |
Being a plus-plus defender at a defensive premium position such as shortstop is already enough to make Noriega a viable prospect, so anything the switch hitter develops on the offensive side of the ball is just gravy. He has a little bit of pop and has put up good numbers in 2009, but has gotten mixed reviews on his swing. He’s still raw offensively, but he’s off to a great start and is still just a teenager. His great defensive instincts should get him to the big leagues regardless of what he does with the bat. Noriega has a body that should allow him to add some bulk without crippling his mobility, so if he becomes more consistent with his swing he could have average/above average power for a shortstop.
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13. |
Mauricio Robles, LHSP03/05/89 (20) A+ High Desert |
Robles doesn’t get much attention as a legitimate starting prospect, partly because of his size. The stocky lefty doesn’t possess the prototypical starter’s frame, and he is in fact the shortest pitcher on this list at 5’10. And while I don’t want to contribute to the stigma associated with short pitchers, I might have Robles a few slots higher if he had a taller, lankier frame. Robles throws a low-mid 90s fastball and reports on his curveball have been encouraging. The development of his changeup will be key if he wants to remain a starter. Robles misses a ton of bats and has put up some big time strikeout numbers (double digit K/9) in the Midwest League and Florida State League before being dealt to Seattle. Like many young hurlers, his inability to find the strikezone and/or pitch effectively inside the strikezone (depending on the day) has held him back. He’s taken strides in the right direction this year, but still gets into too many 3 ball counts and leaves too many pitches up in the zone. If Robles can continue to defy the short pitcher stigma and continue to work on his command, he’ll remain one of Seattle’s top starting prospects. He’s shown flashes of brilliance, such as July 21st when he went 6 scoreless innings, allowing 5 hits and 1 walk while striking out 11; and has looked very good since joining the Mariners organization. If for whatever reason he can’t cut it as a starter, Robles figures to be a dominate lefty out of the ‘pen.
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14. |
Michael Pineda, RHSP01/18/89 (20) A+ High Desert |
Pineda burst onto the prospect scene last season as part of the devastating Wisconsin rotation that also featured Aumont, Ramirez and the since traded Nathan Adcock. Pineda has great command, especially for someone his age, and promising secondary offerings to go with his low 90s fastball. The organization tried to speed up his normally deliberate delivery in an attempt to squeeze out a little more velo, and to no surprise Pineda hit the DL shortly after with a sore elbow. I’m not a fan of Pineda’s delivery. He has a whip-like arm action and doesn’t get any hip/shoulder separation, meaning he’s producing far too much of his velocity with his arm and not enough with his body. The arm motion is something you often see out of the bullpen and rarely out of the starting rotation, and it’s not a coincidence. I think Pineda is a reliever long term, but until the organization makes that call he’s one of Seattle’s better starting prospects. He is currently on a rehab assignment in Arizona.
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15. |
Greg Halman, OF08/26/87 (21) AA West Tennessee |
If physical tools were the only measure of a prospect, Halman would top this list and take up the next five spots as well. He’s the best pure athlete in the system, but while the tools might say B.J. Upton on steroids, the skills say Pedro Cerrano wearing bifocals. Halman has always shown extremely poor pitch recognition and discipline, leading to some of the worst contact rates you’ll ever see in the high minors; and while he may not have taken much of a step back in terms of skill this season, he’s certainly taken a step back in performance. Almost 60% of Halman’s plate appearances result in either a home run, strikeout or infield popup. Defensively, Halman is a good CF despite his size and a great defender in the corners with enough arm to effectively play RF. If everything goes right Halman could become an Alfonso Soriano type player offensively, but odds are he ends up as the next Charlton Jimeson or Reggie Abercrombie. The thing to remember is that he’s just 21 years old and has plenty of time to try and put his tools to work, but don’t get your hopes up until significant progress is made and sustained. Despite falling completely out of the top ten on this list, Halman topped Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus’ respective preseason Mariner rankings, and while those rankings are a sham in the eyes of many, it’s not completely unjustifiable– I had him at #4 over the winter– which provides a good illustration of Halman’s hit or miss profile.
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16. |
Mario Martinez, 3B11/13/89 (19) A- Everett |
I’ve been extremely conflicted on Martinez so I’ll keep this short. He’s well built for his age and has good bat speed, hinting that he’ll have some power as he develops as a hitter. He still struggles with pitch recognition, and the one time I saw him this year he was badly fooled on just about every breaking ball thrown to him. There are mixed reports on Martinez’s defense, but I think he can stick there for a while. When I saw him he had decent reactions, made all the routine plays, moved laterally well and had enough arm strength for the position. I didn’t get a chance to see him come in on a tricklers, but recent reports have him doing much better in that regard. Martinez was the center of attention pregame and by most accounts is a great leader, great teammate, and a very coachable player. That all bodes well for his future, and may help him maximize his overall average tools.
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17. |
Josh Fields, RHRP08/19/85 (24) AA West Tenn |
Fields features a mid 90s fastball with late tailing action and a devastating, hard breaking knuckle curve. He throws from a high overhand arm slot, making his fastball even harder to square up. The stuff is top notch for a reliever, but control is what has kept Fields from quickly reaching the majors. Fields has shown flashes of brilliance, including an entire month in which he didn’t walk a hitter, but he walked 6 in his final 5+ innings before hitting the DL with an oblique strain. Some thought Fields could pitch in Seattle immediately following his selection in 2008, but the long layoff has not been kind to him and he’s had a lot of rust to shake off. Fields may not make his debut until 2010, but by then he should be a permanent fixture in the Mariner bullpen with his eye on the closer’s role. Fields will join Aumont in the Peoria Javelinas bullpen this fall.
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18. |
Shawn Kelley, RHRP04/26/84 (25) MLB Seattle |
Kelley had a great Spring Training and was Seattle’s best reliever before a severe oblique strain landed him on the DL. He hasn’t displayed the same command since returning, but we’ve already seen what he can be when he’s at the top of his game– a top notch setup man with closer potential– and there is no reason to believe he won’t get back to that level soon. Kelley features a well located low-mid 90s fastball and one of the organization’s best pure sliders. Health could be an issue as he’s had some elbow injuries in his past, including Tommy John surgery while pitching for Austin Peay.
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19. |
Julio Morban, CF02/13/92 (17) Rk Arizona |
Morban was praised for his baseball intellect and bat speed at the time of his signing last summer and the organization challenged him more than any other 2008 IFA with the aggressive assignment of advanced rookie level Pulaski. The lefty held his own for 4 games before being brought back to Arizona, a more suitable assignment for a 17 year old. There he is hitting well, standing out to scouts and establishing himself as one of the systems finest talents. Morban is projected to be a top of the lineup hitter who can stick in center field, but has a long way to go before he can make his mark in the Major Leagues.
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20. |
James Jones, RF09/24/88 (20) A- Everett |
Jones has some good buzz around him since being drafted in the 4th round of this year’s draft. He was known as a pitching prospect coming into the year, but after putting up bad numbers against poor competition he fell of the map for some. But Jones did well enough at the plate that the Mariners decided to pass up on the lefty’s low-mid 90s heater and select him as a hitter. Jones has good physical tools but will be a bit of a project. Defensively, the former pitcher obviously has a great arm, and decent enough range– slightly above average speed, but the jumps and routes aren’t great but should improve with experience. His swing features some quirks that will take a lot of work to fix, but it’s important to remember that Jones was picked more for his athleticism and upside rather than polish. I was tempted to put Jones several slots higher, but first I want to see him start to make the necessary adjustments required to make more consistent contact and turn his physical tools into more power. He seems like a coachable kid, so odds are he’ll be quite a bit higher on the next edition.
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21. |
Mike Carp, 1B06/30/86 (23) AAA Tacoma |
Carp is known for being among the organization’s best when it comes to plate discipline. He is extremely selective, rarely biting off more than he can chew. His compact lefty swing is a thing of beauty and one of my favorites to watch, but he hasn’t been able to hit for power consistently enough to be considered a top notch first base prospect. His offensive game is similar to Lye Overbay’s, but he doesn’t have near the glove of Overbay to compensate. He’s a below average defender and a slug on the base paths. I love the high OBP, but Carp would probably be among the bottom half of MLB first basemen in terms of value as is. He’s still young, and if he can add some more power and defense to his game he can improve his profile. Carp was knocking on the door for a top ten ranking in my original draft, which goes to show how tight these rankings are (and also the great talent that has been brought in since that first draft was typed out).
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22. |
Maikel Cleto, RHSP05/01/89 (20) A Clinton |
Cleto lost most of the 2009 season as he was stuck in the Dominican Republic with hundreds of other baseball prospects as part of an age fraud FBI investigation. No word on whether Cleto is indeed just 20 years old, but he’s back in States and that is only a good thing for the Mariners. Cleto is a raw arm with a projectable body and good velocity on his fastball. He gets good sink on the fastball and has learned to stay on top of his curveball more consistently and throw in for strikes. He’s still wild and will be a project, but he’s a high upside arm whether he is able to stick in the rotation or if he lands in the bullpen. Due to the investigation and a DL stint, Cleto has only pitched in a handful of games this season.
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23. |
Tyson Gillies, CF10/31/88 (20) A+ High Desert |
Gillies is one of the Mariners’ most exciting prospects for one reason: his wheels. Gillies is the fastest runner in the system, and one of the fastest in affiliated baseball. I’ve seen his speed graded at an 80 on the 20-80 scale, and 80 grades are unheard of. His offensive game revolves around his speed, as he bunts and chops the ball into the ground more often than not. The physical tools are there to hit for a bit of power, and he’s started to drive the ball into the gaps a little more often, but I’d imagine he’ll stick to small ball until it fails him. Gillies has a good idea of the strikezone and draws a fair amount of walks. He has trouble making contact at times. Gillies is legally deaf, which makes it hard for him to get great jumps in the outfield at times, but his great speed more than makes up for it. He has above average range at all three outfield positions and one of the best outfield arms in the system, if not the best. Gillies can steal bases on raw speed, and his success rate should improve as he learns some technique. Gillies just about has the skills to be a big league fourth outfielder right now, and it’s safe to say he’ll be a full time big leaguer at some point. If he wants to be a starter he’ll have to learn to make more consistent and more solid contact. Some members of the Mariners player development department see him as a Curtis Granderson-type player.
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24. |
Kyle Seager, 2B/3B11/03/87 (22) A Clinton |
Seager provides the organization with some much needed depth at 2B. If you had to pick one player who best represents GM Jack Zduriencik’s first draft at the helm of the Seattle Mariners, it might be Seager. He hits left handed, played for a great collegiate program, has an advanced approach at the plate and has a higher probability than upside. He’s played a lot of 3B in college, so his defense at 2B will be worth monitoring, but if he can stick at the position he has a decent chance of being a solid but unspectacular major leaguer. That sounds boring, but organizations can’t get enough of these types of players.
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25. |
Nick Franklin, SS03/02/91 (18) Rk Arizona |
Most scouting reports on Franklin focus on balance. He doesn’t have any tools that jump off the page, nor does he have any major weaknesses, and he maximizes his abilities with a good feel for the game. He’s a switch hitter and neither of his swings are as disastrous as a lot of prep talents. Defensively he has average range, good footwork around the bag and a strong-average throwing arm. There is some debate about whether he’ll stick at shortstop or not, with some believing he profiles better at second base. If he can maintain average grades across the board as he moves up the organizational ladder he should become a useful player, but he’ll have to come up with something more if he wants to live up to being a day one pick, let alone a first rounder.
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Just Missed, Sleepers, and Other Notables
The list got pretty jammed up towards the end. Any of these guys could be swapped in without much of a fuss, and some will find themselves solidly on the next list we produce as we get a better idea of where they stand.
- Brandon Morrow, RHSP – He obviously doesn’t qualify for lists like this, but he is Seattle’s best SP prospect regardless. Command and changeup showing improvement in Tacoma.
- Alex Liddi, 3B/1B – Was heading the way of the bust before landing in High Desert this year. Having a monster season and some of the improvement is real, but he needs to prove himself in more neutral environment for me to buy in.
- Guillermo Pimentel, OF – M’s highest profile international signing of the summer. Raw as any at 16 years old, but the power potential is among the best in the system.
- Steve Baron, C – Early reports out of Pulaski are consistent with draft reports in that his swing needs to be scrapped but he knows what he’s doing behind the plate.
- Jose Valdivia, RHP – 2008 IFA. 17 year old already in low 90s, but having trouble in AZL. Very raw. All projection at this point.
- Efrain Nunez, OF – Teenage switch hitter. Decent approach considering his age. Could develop some nice power.
- Ezequiel Carrera, OF – Gillies-light. No outstanding tools, but a great feel for the game. Upside isn’t much higher than 4th OF, but he’s putting up good numbers. Zero power.
- Kenn Kasparek, RHP – Dominating MWL with a heater worthy of his 6’8 frame. Command seems to be coming around. Sleeper.
- Denny Almonte, OF – Toolsy project player. Still has time at age 20 and has shown some progress. Diminishing walk rates are concerning.
- Ryan Royster, OF – Old for level after terrible 2008, but having a breakout year. Speedy with some pop.
- Doug Fister, RHP – Gets by with command and mixing his pitches. Love his willingness to bust big leaguers inside. I think he can stick in the rotation.
- Matt Mangini, 3B/1B – After seeing his terrible uppercut swing last season and hearing about his inability to be coached I’ve been more than comfortable placing the bust tag on this former first rounder, but something has changed over the last couple of months. Hasn’t regained prospect status, but worth monitoring.
- Joe Dunigan, OF/1B – Organization wants an extended look and is sending him to the AFL, but the power hitter has been striking out an awful lot against Class-A pitching, and is already 23.
- Nick Hill, LHP – I still see him as a good lefty reliever, but he’s putting up some impressive numbers as a starter. I’m not sure his motion allows him to start long term, however.
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This system has good depth among relievers, first basemen and catchers with okay depth in the outfield, but is spread pretty thin at the other infield positions and in the starting rotation. GM Jack Zduriencik and SD Tom McNamara have done a nice job so far and I’m confident they’ll turn the system around, but Seattle’s farm is very pedestrian compared to division rivals the Texas Rangers and Oakland Athletics. Texas has the best collection of prospects in baseball and Oakland isn’t far off, setting each team up for years as long as the kids are handled correctly.
12 Responses to Top 25 Seattle Mariners Prospects, 8/09
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Adam Moore, C

Dan Cortes, RHSP




Mauricio Robles, LHSP



Shawn Kelley, RHRP


Maikel Cleto, RHSP
Tyson Gillies, CF

jking12
August 26th, 2009 at 9:23 pm
Isn’t Noriega in Pulaski, not Everett?
Jon Shields
August 26th, 2009 at 9:40 pm
^I must have put in Everett preseason when I was first starting the draft and guessing where guys would start. Not sure why I’d do that otherwise. Thanks for the heads up.. will fix.
gregrabble
August 26th, 2009 at 9:56 pm
Great stuff, thanks for this.
Lonnie
August 26th, 2009 at 11:02 pm
Hey Jon,
Pretty gutsy post. I too have one or two of these stored on my ‘puter waiting for me to grow a pair to post
I can’t find anything wrong with your rankings. I may switch a couple of guys around and maybe kick one guy up from your list that didn’t make the 25 cut, but all in all it looks pretty good to me.
Lonnie
Jon Shields
August 26th, 2009 at 11:10 pm
Lonnie– I’d love to hear what tweaks you’d make, unless you’re holding out for an MC post.
Dustin Shires
August 27th, 2009 at 12:28 am
I know I’ve talked to you about this before, but it might as well hit the public.
Greg Halman puzzles me. He’s got the upside to be a 1 or 2 on this list, but the risk to place him even lower than you did. It don’t get him.
SABR Matt
August 27th, 2009 at 9:12 am
The only player on this list that I have to complain about a bit is Tyson Gillies. I would have him in the top 15, not down at 23. I’d put him ahead of Kelley, Morban, Fields, Martinez, Jones, Carp and Cleto without question. Cleto hasn’t done diddly since joining Seattle, Carp is less useful outside of first base/DH, Jones is extremely raw, Martinez ditto, Fields and Kelley have reliever upside and Morban isn’t anywhere close to being ready…GIllies, profiling as a CFer and lead-off hitter, reminds me quite a bit of Kenny Lofton, and I think has a much MUCH higher chance of being a big leaguer than anyone from 15 to 22 on your list with the exception of Carp.
Slurve
August 27th, 2009 at 10:25 am
In other words Nick Franklin better learn power har har…
Kyle Seager might be one of my favorites more BB than SO and gap power type guy that plays 2nd. I always imagine Raben and Poythress in the middle of our line-up it’d be so intimidating to pitchers coming up and having to face batters built like trees one after the other.
Cleto is extremely raw still but touches 96 and flashes a good breaking ball every now and then.
Hurry up and show power Saunders I love your bunts but just hit one out!
Lonnie
August 27th, 2009 at 10:42 am
Jon sez:
“Lonnie– I’d love to hear what tweaks you’d make, unless you’re holding out for an MC post.”
I’m actually putting together the wireframe for an end of year report, but it is going to be different from what you have here.
The big problem that I have in compiling a list like this is that I tend to rank more with my heart than with my head. I love what Liddi is doing down in HD and I like the fact that he’s from Italy where there is a fledgling league. It would be stupid of me to use that as part of a ranking scenario, but I probably subconsciously would
I also would probably put too much emphasis on production since that is the one metric that is readily available to all of us.
Something else that weighs heavily with me is mental maturity. I tend to think of a player with so-so stuff who is performing well because of his maturity as being better than a prospect who is struggling.
Here’s an apples to trout comparison. I think that Cheyne Hann has a better chance of becoming a good MLB player over Greg Halman. I base this on some interviews I listened to over at http://lumberkings.mlblogs.com/ In the interview you can hear Hann’s maturity in his voice, and he backs it up with production. The same goes for Andrew Carraway. Does that mean that either of these guys is going to put on the big clubs uniform? No, it just means that that is the way that I roll.
During ST I got to talk a bit with Doogie Fister and I came away from it with a good idea of his maturity and of his intelligence. I had a feeling from those few minutes that he was going to do something good this year.
Lonnie
Lonnie
August 27th, 2009 at 10:51 am
Dustin Shires sez:
“Greg Halman puzzles me. He’s got the upside to be a 1 or 2 on this list, but the risk to place him even lower than you did. It don’t get him.”
Yogi said: “Baseball is 90% mental — the other half is physical.”
Halman has all the physical tools, of that there is no question. What he lacks is the mental discipline to put all the tools together, or perhaps even the mental ability to do it.
The only way that Halman ever gets a sniff of a MLB locker room is if he one day takes a tour. I firmly believe that he does not have the mental capacity to realize his full potential.
Lonnie
g_money
August 29th, 2009 at 9:27 pm
Terrific list. There are always gonna be slots that people can argue about, but I appreciate you putting this out there for us to at least have the conversation. It’s a great list for reference and discussion as we head toward the minor league offseason.
I appreciate it – even if I disagree on Liddi and a coupla others.
~G
Mariners121212
August 30th, 2009 at 10:05 am
I agree about Gillies I would but him ahead of Aumont(the reliever, not as a starter).