Towards the end of the offseason, I started a series that was aimed at looking at what the Mariners might do with their 2011 offseason.  Obviously, things have not worked out anywhere near where anyone has expected, so a new look and new approach will be required now.

Just like the first time around, we’ll start off by looking at the free agents to be, with their positions and age at the start of the 2011 season in parenthesis:

Jose Lopez (3B, 27) Team option for $4.5M or $250k buyout
Ian Snell (RHP, 29) Team option for $6.75M
Erik Bedard (LHP, 32) Mutual option for $8M with escalators
Josh Bard (C, 33)
Russell Branyan (1B, 35) Mutual option for $5M or $500k buyout
Jamey Wright (RHP, 36)
Chris Woodward (SS, 34)

I think it’s very easy to say at this point that the Mariners will very likely decline the options on Lopez and Snell.  Snell was simply terrible in most of his starts this season before he was demoted to Tacoma, and hasn’t been any better in AAA.  His usefulness as a Major League starting pitcher is probably done and over with at this point, and I’m not sure how good of a reliever Snell could be.

As for Lopez, while his defensive transition to third base has gone better than many, including myself, expected.  His offensive game, however, apparently got left across the diamond at second.  Lopez has never been a great batter, but it was hoped that as he developed that he could be right around average… but this year he has been among the worst hitters in all of baseball.  Currently, he has the second-worst wOBA among all hitters with at least 400 at-bats, ahead of only Baltimore shortstop Cesar Izturis.  With how poorly he fits the team mentality (horrible approach at the plate, little patience) and the ballpark (dead-pull right-handed hitter, which SafeCo Field kills), there’s no real reason to keep Lopez around.

Of the other free agents, it wouldn’t surprise me either way if Bedard either stayed or left.  His option will almost certainly not be picked up, but the team could certainly be interested in having him finish out his rehab with the organization and finally pitching in the majors again in Seattle.

Bard and Branyan are interesting cases.  Bard could certainly stick around as a backup, but if the organization brings in another catcher or wants to use Rob Johnson as Moore’s backup, he has no real role here.  He might be better off heading for another organization that has a clearer need for a veteran backup who can start a fair chunk of games if needed.

Branyan has a mutual option that will almost certainly be declined by the team, and with Justin Smoak and Mike Carp bashing away in Tacoma, he doesn’t have a clear role in Seattle.  His massive, high, arching home runs have made him a fan favorite in Seattle, and I was certainly glad to see him back in a Mariner uniform when he was re-acquired, but I’m just not sure how he fits right now.  If the organization still isn’t sold on Carp’s bat, I suppose he could be brought back at the right price (read: “low”) as a DH to help keep fans coming in, but other than that I don’t see much of a role for him.

Woodward could come back on a minor-league deal as AAA depth again, but it wouldn’t pain me any if he didn’t.  If Wright comes back next year, I might have to eat my shirt.  Thankfully, there’s not much of a reason for him to, so my shirt should be safe.

There’s also a number of arbitration cases coming up. I may be a tick off on some of the first-time guys right now, as the Cot’s Contracts service times are all I could find to go on:

Casey Kotchman (1B, 28)
Brandon League (RHP, 28)
David Aardsma (RHP, 29)
Jose Lopez (3B, 27) If team option is declined
Ryan Langerhans (OF, 31)
Josh Wilson (UTIL, 30)
Ryan Rowland-Smith (LHP, 28)
Jason Vargas (LHP,  28)

Aside from his recent mini-surge at the plate, Kotchman has been pretty miserable offensively, posting just a .225/.291/.360 line on the season so far “good” for a .283 wOBA.  His defense has been as stellar as ever, but after making over $3 million this year, you have to wonder if the M’s think he might be too costly to keep as a defensive first baseman on the bench with Justin Smoak likely to take the 1B job next year.  Kotchman is a strong non-tender candidate.

League and Aardsma will definitely be tendered contracts as they are the team’s best two relievers currently in the majors.  Whether they are still on the roster come Spring Training is another matter entirely, however, as back-end relievers are always in demand for trades.  That said, if one is dealt, I doubt the other would be for the sake of the bullpen’s stability.

Lopez is only an arbitration matter if the M’s decline his option, and if they do that they’d certainly non-tender him as well, as his home run totals over his career would serve to jack up his arbitration value.

Langerhans may or may not be tendered a contract.  He’s a great fourth outfielder, as he plays stellar defense and can come up with big hits.  His approach at the plate and left-handed line-drive power play well with the team philosphies and ballpark as well.  That said, he is getting older, and the team may want to use a younger guy who’s a AAAA/fringe major league player in that role.

Wilson will most likely be tendered a contract, as he’s probably the better of their current options for a utility infielder for 2011 (not that that’s saying very much).  If they can find a younger/better option for a reasonable cost, however, it wouldn’t pain my a bit to see him go elsewhere.

Rowland-Smith has had a horrid 2010, but he’s been a pet project for the organization.  His bigger stumbling block, however, is that he is out of options after having to go down to the minors this season.  Expect him to be tendered a contract, but that will far from guarantee him a roster spot unless he can prove that he’s fixed whatever went wrong this year.

Vargas is a dead lock to get a contract tender.  Given the pieces currently in the organization, you could even pencil him in to the #2 slot in the rotation pending other offseason moves.  His 2010 has been incredibly impressive, and with the advances he’s made, he’s building on a nice little future in the league.

There’s a handful of others who could find themselves off the roster come 2011.  Sean White and Garrett Olson are out of options, so if they can’t make the bullpen out of Spring Training, they’d have to be DFA’d and go through waivers.  Brian Sweeney appears to be under team control for next year as per Cot’s Contracts, he only has a little over a year of Major League service time going into 2010.  He could be kept, or he could be non-tendered; it’s frankly a toss-up on that one.

Also, both Milton Bradley and Jack Wilson could be released or traded.  Wilson’s skills fell off a cliff across the board this year, though he did struggle with injuries through the year.  If the M’s pick up another option at shortstop, he’s gone.  Bradley also had his skills seriously erode among his own injury issues, as well as other well-publicized problems earlier in the year.  Honestly, I don’t think Bradley sees January in the M’s organization no matter what, based on a combination of conversations with people close to the team and a personal hunch.

Chone Figgins will certainly have some trade rumors swirling around him in the offseason, but I doubt he gets moved.  Zduriencik won’t just give him away for nothing, however, and his contract will also make him hard to move.

So where does that leave the M’s roster?  Let’s take a look.  Keep in mind, this is only using players currently with the team or on the DL.  Prospects are not being included at the moment, as they are the focus of the next part of this series.

SP1: Felix Hernandez
SP2: Jason Vargas
SP3: Doug Fister
SP4: Erik Bedard? (if healthy)
SP5: Ryan Rowland-Smith/Luke French/?

BP: David Aardsma?
BP: Brandon League?
BP: Brian Sweeney?
BP: Sean White?
BP: ?
BP: ?
BP: ?

C: Adam Moore
1B: ?
2B: ?
SS: Jack Wilson?
3B: Chone Figgins
LF: Michael Saunders
CF: Franklin Gutierrez
RF: Ichiro Suzuki
DH: ?

Bench
C: Rob Johnson?
UTIL: Josh Wilson?
OF: ?
UTIL/OF/bat/hugger/whatever: ?

That’s a LOT of question marks, especially in the bullpen, where every single named player has a not-insignificant chance of being in a different uniform next year for a variety of reasons.  Shawn Kelley was held off the list not because I think he’ll be out of the organization, but because of his recent elbow surgery.  It’s very likely he won’t be ready until late next year at the soonest, and he might even miss the entire 2011 season.

In the next installment of this, I’m going to look at how some of the M’s prospects might fit into the picture for 2011.  Between now and then, I’ll be heading to the USS Mariner/Lookout Landing event at SafeCo Field on Saturday, as well as profiling the current notable prospects in AAA Tacoma.  Until then…