Rainiers: Not So Happy Pineda Day

by ~ August 27th, 2010 at 4:06 pm

I’m down in Tacoma for a week or so house-sitting for a friend of mine, and I decided to take in last night’s Tacoma Rainiers game as long as I was here, especially as it was a Michael Pineda start and he’s right near his innings limit for 2010.

Unfortunately, Pineda showed that he is indeed right at his innings limit, and that there are nothing but good reasons to shut him down for the year, and to do it right now.

The Rainiers were facing the Portland Beavers last night, the AAA affiliate of the San Diego Padres, and they were playing to extend their lead in their division as Salt Lake had lost earlier in the day.  With the Beavers’ middling talent (mostly broken prospects of varying types), this looked like a start that Pineda could breeze through to finish his season on a high note.  Such a result was not to be, however, as the Rainiers would fall 17-12 in what can only be described as an absolute slugfest.

Pineda came out of the gate throwing gas.  His fastball was in it’s typical 94-96 range, occasionally touching 97 on the radar gun.  However, it was arrow-straight tonight with minimal command, and for most of his outing it was all Pineda threw.  He only threw four sliders in the first inning, and three of them were to the last batter of the inning.  He didn’t throw a single changeup until the third inning, and everything was flat and regularly up in the zone.  Frankly, he just looked tired out there, and looked like he was throwing more than he was pitching.

You could still see what makes Pineda such an attractive pitching prospect, however.  The velocity on all of his pitches was still there, and the near identical release points and velocity on his slider and changeup will make life very, very difficult for major league hitters if they try and sit on one of those pitches.  The fastball is a live pitch when Pineda is feeling right, and even when the Portland batters were sitting on it, he was still able to blow past them at times.

At 139 innings pitched after last night, Pineda is right up against the theorized 140 inning mark that the Mariners had him tabbed to get shut down at.  There were some whispers before the game that he might get one more start after this, but last night showed that his shut-down needs to happen now.  I had separate conversations with Ryan Divish of the Tacoma News Tribune and Chris Crawford of Prospect Insider, and both of them agreed completely with that viewpoint.

I also got to see Dan Cortes pitch last night late in the game in relief.  As one of the M’s top relief prospects, I was excited to see him come trotting out of the bullpen… but that excitement didn’t last long.  His fastball has legit velocity, with a number at or above 99 MPH, and none below 96.  That said, Cortes seemed to have very little sense of where it was going, and it flew as straight as straight fastballs come.  The Beavers hitters sat on it his whole outing, and they punished him time and again.  He only threw about three curveballs, which is a ratio that will really, really need to change if Cortes is going to find success at the major-league level.  The curve is good enough to keep hitters off-balance, but not if they can just ignore it to sit on the fastball like last night.

Last night was something of a power show by the Rainiers, drilling seven homers in their loss.  The wind was blowing out for much of the game, but I would say that only two of Tacoma’s homers were wind-aided, and two were actually hit into the teeth of the wind after it changed directions for awhile.  Greg Halman had one of the ones into the wind, drilling one low off the light tower in left field, and Brad Nelson had the other, just missing the same spot Halman hit.  Smoak pulled a ball way out to right field that bounced off the top of the hill out there leading up to Foss High School.

Mike Carp had two homers on the night, one of which was out thanks to the wind.  The other, however, was as legit as homers come.  He got all of a belt-high fastball, and with the aid of the wind at his back, drilled a ball off the fence… of the tennis courts of Foss High, a good 150 feet past the right-field wall and up a hill.  It was an impressive shot, to say the very least.

On a side note, I spent some time with Ryan Divish, Mike Curto, and John McGrath after the game last night, among others.  All three are great, great guys and if you ever have a chance to sit and talk with them, I recommend you not even wait a full heartbeat to do it.

Between the lack of good pitching and the wind, this was a really hard game to accurately scout, which is a shame because there’s some good talent on this Rainiers club right now.  This was most likely my last game covering them this season, but it was a fun year to watch them play all in all.  I’m very much looking forward to watching them play in their new digs in 2011 after Cheney Stadium gets renovated.


  • http://proballnw.com Dustin Shires

    My seat was just two sections over from this, and I was even with the first base line. That shot by Carp was about as well struck as any ball I’ve ever seen hit at any level of play, ever. That was absolutely belted.

    • http://twitter.com/c_dowley Conor Dowley

      Yeah. The wind may have pushed it a little extra, but that thing was monstrous all on it’s own. Hell, the wind may have actually knocked it down some he nailed it so hard and so high. Put Branyan’s upper deck shot in NY to shame, in my opinion.

  • mw3

    I understand and support the innings limit for Pineda. The 80-85 pitch count was a step too far and I believe it put undue pressure on Pineda to be perfect to get his five or six innings.

    At this point I’m glad he is shut down and I look forward to seeing him make 26-28 starts for the Mariners as the fifth guy next year.

    • http://twitter.com/c_dowley Conor Dowley

      It wasn’t too far at all. Remember, he only made it through 47 innings last year before his elbow started having problems. As you throw more and more innings that your arm aren’t used to, your arm will get tired and become more susceptible to losing it’s grip on it’s proper mechanics, which increases the risk of injury. Putting him on a pitch count helps keep his arm fresher during games, which reduces that risk somewhat.

      There’s also the fact that having him in a pitch count helps stretch the innings limit out a little bit time-wise, which is also somewhat helpful for the arm, as well as to a team fighting for the playoffs.

      • mw3

        Then they should have stuck him in the bullpen. It is a psychological fact that when a pitcher starts a game he wants to get the win in that game. And there really is no discernable difference between 85-100. As there is no difference if Felix throws 115-125. It is throwing more pitches than your arm is used to which increases the risk of injury. He was throwing 95-100 in West Tenn. he should have continued on that track. I can make a case that because of the lower pitch count he was putting more stress on the arm trying to make better pitches trying to get hitters out to be able to qualify for a win.

        Like I said I believe in pitch counts but there is a point where they can be taken too far.

        Strasburg for instance, could have been exuding more effort for his 95-100 pitches because he knew that was all he’d have instead of just going out there and throwing and not having to worry about being removed early because he had hit some magic number that is based on nothing scientific. Tony Gwynn said about this same thing on OTL the day the Strasburg surgery was announced.

        • http://proballnw.com Jon

          Interesting points. I was thinking along similar lines before it became clear that Pineda wasn’t going to make it to September. I originally thought he might finish the year out in the bullpen, but would the team really want him in that role after a long season? Smaller workloads, yes, but it’s pretty easy to see that pitchers tend to max out their effort in those short stints.

          • mw3

            Thinking about it more, I don’t want the max-effort short warmup bullpen appearances either. He’s not hurt so I can’t really complain about what the M’s did but I think it would be really interesting to monitor the injury situations in teams with the strict pitch counts like Washington and Seattle versus what happens with a team like the Rangers who let their pitchers throw.

        • http://twitter.com/c_dowley Conor Dowley

          We obviously see things in different ways, and I respect that you have a different opinion than my own.

          All I can say in the matter of pitch-counts comes from my own experience pitching in high school. When I was held to a lower pitch-count, even by a difference of 10-15 pitches, my arm took significantly less time to recover between starts. When dealing with a top prospect who’s already had arm issues, arm recovery can be a huge factor, especially late in the year.

          Take that as you will…

  • http://baseballhittingtipsonline.blogspot.com/ baseballhittingtips

    Thank you for sharing your thoughts on Pineda and for supplying those home run videos. I’m very much looking forward to seeing some of those guys called up in September.