It’s Not Quite Rebuilding
by Jon ~ September 10th, 2008
How can Seattle be planning on rebuilding? In order to rebuild something it has to be torn down first, and Seattle has nothing to tear down.
When I think of a baseball team tearing things down and rebuilding, the first team that usually pops into my head is the Florida Marlins. The team won the World Series in 1997 and was stripped bare shortly thereafter. Moises Alou, Devon White, Al Leiter, Jeff Conine, Kevin Brown and others were dealt before the 1998 season began, and players such as Gary Sheffield, Bobby Bonilla, Charles Johnson and Felix Heredia were dealt before the trade deadline. Not every trade was a success, but they were able to bring in several talented young players such as A.J. Burnett, Derrek Lee and Preston Wilson.
That was one of the most dramatic tear downs in baseball history, and obviously Seattle can’t do anything of that caliber. Of the guys the team would love to unload– Jarrod Washburn, Carlos Silva, Miguel Batista and Kenji Johjima– only one is likely to be traded (Washburn) and will bring next to nothing in return. It would take divine intervention for any of the other three to be moved.
As far as I can tell, there are only two big contract guys Seattle could move for significant value this offseason: Ichiro Suzuki and Adrian Beltre.
Trading Ichiro would relieve the organization of their biggest contract and would bring in a very nice haul of prospects. That said, don’t expect Ichiro to be going anywhere this offseason. For one, the organization needs to put something on the field to keep people coming to the ballpark. As recently as a couple months ago I felt like I’d be content watching a team of youngsters take their lumps, but I’m quickly learning I wouldn’t be. Last night’s lineup was made up of half rookies, even without Wlad Balentien and Jeff Clement, and the game was pretty boring and I found myself tuning out after about six innings. If Felix Hernandez and Ichiro hadn’t been starting it might have been tough for me to tune in at all. Another reason Ichiro probably isn’t going anywhere is because of the ownership’s Japanese connection. Ichiro is one of the most marketable players worldwide in the game today, and probably makes Nintendo quite a bit overseas.
As far as Beltre goes, he will be moved at some point before now and this time next year. Unfortunately, he won’t bring back a bounty worthy of his talents. He’s underrated and running out of contract, but hopefully Seattle can get something more than the compensatory draft picks they’d get by letting him walk.
Beyond Beltre, Erik Bedard and JJ Putz are the only ones Seattle could deal for something of value, but neither will bring anything back until they show other teams they are effective and healthy next summer.
It doesn’t appear that Seattle can completely rebuild in the traditional sense this offseason even if they wanted to. Looking back, President Chuck Armstrong never really said much about rebuilding. Rebuilding is just the word everyone likes to throw around because that’s what typically happens when a team decides not to use every available resource to win. In Seattle’s case, they could have money to spend this offseason to better their team, but instead they’re going to stay away from the expensive free agents. They’re not rebuilding, they’re simply waiting. Waiting for some of the bad contracts to burn off and waiting for the young players to get a little bit better.
Seattle is going to be better in a lot of areas next season, even without spending any additional resources. They could even make some noise in the AL West if everything were to go right. Either way, this organization could finally be heading in the right direction.
They already have three young and effective starters in Felix Hernandez, Brandon Morrow and Ryan Rowland-Smith that can only improve from here on out. Potential outfield cornerstones Michael Saunders and Greg Halman will be playing AAA ball next year, as well as probable future starters in Matt Tuiasosopo, Luis Valbuena and Adam Moore. Add to that Dennis Raben’s expected quick rise through the system to give Seattle left-handed power and plate discipline at first base and Seattle could have a rock solid foundation to build upon in 2010 and/or 2011. The highly touted Carlos Triunfel could even be ready by 2011, and there will still be a crop of high upside youths left in the system to be ready by 2012 and beyond.
A full scale tear down isn’t possible and more importantly isn’t required. Whether or not you like Seattle’s idea to lay low throughout the 2009 season, you should be excited for the possibilities to come. If most of the players listed above pan out (not to mention the top three draft pick we’ll be getting next summer), Seattle could be in a position to sign plus talent to fill gaps rather than to try and carry the team. That sounds like a winning strategy to me, but we just have to hope that the new GM doesn’t add anymore bad contracts or make anymore bad trades.
It’s not quite rebuilding, but that’s not a bad thing.
12 Responses to It’s Not Quite Rebuilding
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Slurve
September 10th, 2008 at 8:31 pm
Hmm 3-4 draft picks who would we spend them on? Strasburg will be on the top of most people list unless the devil- I mean Boras says otherwise.
would it kill the M’s to sign a INF… But if we took Strasburg or Aaron Crow I’m not complaining either… If we can pull it together we have a decent chance my hopes by 2010 is
LF-Balentien/Saunders Cf-Saunders/Halman RF-Ichiro!
SS-Truinfel 2B-Valbuena/Lopez
3b-Tui _ 1B-Raben
C-Clement/Moore/Johnson
Rotation there seems to be a lot of them down there with promise so I’m gonna wait on them. But by 2010 unless an act of stupidy happens Batista and Washy will be out of the picture maybe Putz too…
Jon Shields
September 10th, 2008 at 8:39 pm
^If we can’t get Strasburg, I’m hoping Pedro Alvarez finds himself back in the draft (still possible). If not him, I’m hoping to get the SS out of USC Grant Green.
I’m told he’ll stick at SS (unlike Jose Lopez and Matt Tuiasosopo and Jharmidy DeJesus and Mario Martinez etc etc) and has been compared to guys like Tulowitzki and Longoria.
Rob T.
September 10th, 2008 at 10:56 pm
This is a scouting report on Green from Baseball Prospectus when he was a freshman.
“Seniority often rules in the Cape Cod League, and when the Yarmouth-Dennis Red Sox got commitments from both Gordon Beckham and Grant Green for this summer, they knew Beckham would spend most of the summer at shortstop. It was one of Beckham’s final chances to prove he could stay at the position in the long-term, while Green would have many more chances to re-affirm the belief that he was a shortstop. In just 15 games at the position it was clear that while Green is large for the middle infield, he should likely remain a shortstop in professional baseball. As such, Green’s offensive potential means so much more, as his developing power is a large asset at the position. Green shows potential for all five tools, and if he can cut down on his strikeout numbers in his final two seasons, he should be the highest Trojan drafted since Mark Prior.”
Here what BP said after his sophomore year:
“Underclassmen to Watch: In the same week that Troy Tulowitzki signed a six-year contract, it’s probably fitting to talk about Grant Green. USC’s other sophomore phenom (beyond the already-mentioned Stock behind the plate), Green had a great freshman season with the Trojans, hitting .316/.388/.491. Like Tulo, he’s a big shortstop who offers both good range and a good throwing arm. Their best basis for comparison is their power, especially in light of the power that Tulo also didn’t show in the home run column until after his freshman season. Expect Green to turn more of those 24 doubles and triples into home runs in each of the next two seasons, and then expect him to get some consideration as the first overall selection in the 2009 draft.”
Here’s a good article about him:
http://capecodbaseball.org/Weekly/Week2008/ThisWeek/thisweek_Awards_ProProspect.htm
Slurve
September 11th, 2008 at 3:07 pm
Someone like Green our INF might be nice.
Slurve
September 11th, 2008 at 4:12 pm
I’m think that Green could be a 20-20 or even 30-30 guy.
Slurve
September 11th, 2008 at 4:41 pm
I would like Moore more if he was a left handed bat but he isn’t… I still believe Clement has the best potential to be one our best left handed bat we have.
Dustin Shires
September 12th, 2008 at 1:19 am
If Strasburg is still on the board with the Mariners are picking, and we skip him, I’ll quit watching the Mariners. I will stick by that. Strasburg is the only name we should care about…
Jon Shields
September 12th, 2008 at 2:07 am
^If Strasburg is the only name you care about, the 2009 draft could be a depressing affair for you. There is no guarentee we’ll get him, and there are some great players in the first few picks that Seattle would be lucky to land (such as Grant Green, my latest man-crush. Perhaps it’s the alliteration).
Brandon
September 12th, 2008 at 9:02 am
If the young pitchers we have now continue to develop into solid starters, it wouldn’t be all bad if we didn’t get strasburg. OF course if he’s on the board, it’s a no-brainer that we pick him.
I would be happy with Strasburg, but I would also be happy with Grant Green because I really don’t like Yuni and would love to see a different man at SS in the future.
Slurve
September 12th, 2008 at 3:32 pm
I rather have an high impact player play on the field everyday and field and hit rather than a person that goes every 5 Strasburg would be lovely don’t get me wrong but I’m saying if we don’t get him and end up with Green it’s not exactly a loss either.
Dustin Shires
September 14th, 2008 at 4:41 pm
Pitchers of Strasburg’s caliber are just as valuable, if not far more, than an every day player. Look at it this way, they get 4 or 5 at bats, or opportunities, to affect a game, whereas a pitcher gets 25+ opportunities to affect a game. A week of at bats equals 1 good start. This is a super crude way to look at it, but a pitcher who can get past the 6th and 7th innings carries just as much value, if not more than the every day player…
Slurve
September 14th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
If Strasburg is available we should take him indeed unless Mr. boras says otherwise and he won’t sign with anybody which is very unlikely… I think Strasburg will end up as a Padre, Ackley with the Nats and we end up with Green. Washington might take Strasburg because they loss Crow and might feel pressured into taking the number 1 talent in the draft especially if Bowden wants to keep his job, Padres will get the pressure to sign a local kid thats good, if they don’t draft him I say alright if they do I’ll be depressed but if we pass on him with no explanation why there will be some rioting.