Coming into the 2008 season the Seattle Mariners’ rotation was being heralded by many– both locally and nationally– as one of the best top to bottom starting rotations in baseball. 

Oh, how far we’ve come.  Here’s the rotation that kicked off the year and each pitcher’s Seattle Mariners outlook.

Erik Bedard:  15 GS, 81 IP, 72 K, 37 BB, 3.67 ERA

After being a centerpiece in the most lopsided trade in Seattle Mariners history, Bedard continued his career trend of getting hurt and missed over half the season for the Mariners, pitching many of his games in severe pain.  He was shut down after his July 4th start and hasn’t pitched since, and there is a chance that he won’t pitch in a Mariners uniform ever again. 

The consensus is that he has a torn labrum in his pitching shoulder and is looking at a 6-9 month recovery time, meaning he would miss at least half of the 2009 season should Seattle retain him.  There is a small chance that the injury isn’t as bad as reported; the full extent probably won’t be known until Dr. Yocum cuts him open.  If it is indeed a torn labrum Bedard will probably be non-tendered so that Seattle won’t have to pay him the expected $10M to pitch only half a season, especially since he’ll have enough service time to enter free agency after the 2009 season.

Fans have debated whether or not Seattle could extend Bedard beyond the 2009 season despite the injury.  This wouldn’t be a bad idea as long as it were at a bargain price, but if Bedard is confident that he can come back from the injury he’d probably prefer free agency.  Also, extending a player with a potentially career ending injury wouldn’t be the best PR move right now.

Felix Hernandez:  29 GS, 186.2 IP, 163 K, 76 BB, 3.42 ERA

Of the pitchers who started the season in the starting rotation, Felix has been the best of the group this season.  He hasn’t quite dominated this year like we would have hoped, but we have to remember that he’s only 22– younger than both Brandon Morrow and Ryan Rowland-Smith– but has 102 Major League starts under his belt already. 

Conditioning has always been an important issue with Felix.  Early in his career he was very overweight and many of us feared he’d become the next Bartolo Colon, but he was able to come to camp fit in 2007 and has since kept the weight off.  The muscle strains he’s been suffering from all season– especially in the calf and groin areas– are a little concerning, but hopefully he can continue getting stronger and getting everything loosened up properly so that he can be pitching at full strength in the future. 

The biggest concern that many Mariner fans have when it comes to Felix is his contract and future with the team.  Felix is on track to become a free agent after the 2011 season at the age of 25.  Frontline starters rarely hit the market that young, so the offers he’ll get from big market teams are probably going to be astronomical assuming he stays healthy and continues improving, and a contract in the $125-150M range seems perfectly feasible to me.  With that said, it is very important for the organization to sign Felix to a long term deal before his arbitration years run out.  But would Felix want to sign with this team?  Since the risk of injury to a pitcher is so much higher than to the everyday player they tend to take their big paychecks when they can, so that’s something that can help the Mariners.  What hurts them is that the organization is a mess, the offense never gives him any runs, and he’d make an absolute fortune on the open market.  An extension is obviously something to cross your fingers for assuming you’d like to see Felix pitch here beyond the 2011 season. 

Carlos Silva: 27 GS, 150 IP, 65 K, 30 BB, 6.42 ERA

Last offseason the free agent market for starting pitching was supposed to spiral out of control.  Guys like Carlos Silva and Kyle Lohse were expected to be overpaid in both dollars and years, and injury risk Bartolo Colon was thought to be able to get a guaranteed contract of $8-10M. 

When Seattle GM Bill Bavasi was unable to bring in Japanese starter Hiroki Kuroda, he immediately scrambled to sign Silva, figuring that he was a hot commodity in a pitching starved market.  Many people outside of baseball were thinking along the same lines, but in the end Bavasi outbid himself in the Silva sweepstakes, giving him 4 years and $48M.  Lohse signed a one year deal with the Cardinals and Colon signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox.

It was an unfortunate miscalculation at the time.  Now it’s even worse as Silva has struggled with injuries en route to posting the worst season of his career, all while effective young starters Ryan Rowland-Smith and Brandon Morrow have emerged as better options.

Because of his 2008 struggles and outrageous contract it’s incredibly hard to imagine him being dealt this offseason.  Obviously many fans are calling for such a move, but the chances of it happening are slim to none.  There were rumors a while back that Mets GM Omar Manaya could trade for Silva this upcoming offseasonin hopes that reuniting him with best bud Johan Santana would get him back on track, but I find that extremely unlikely.  Why would Minaya take a risk like that?  If it did somehow happen, Seattle would have to pick up a ton of contract without getting anything back, making it a pretty pointless transaction.  Count on Silva being a Mariner for the 2009 season, and hopefully he’ll be a little closer to his Minnesota averages.

Silva is, in all likelihood, done for the season.

Jarrod Washburn:  28 G, 26 GS, 153.2 IP, 87 K, 50 BB, 4.69 ERA

This season Wash has been about as good as we would have expected: mediocre.  Some good starts, some bad ones, about what you’d want from a back of the rotation arm.

Washburn was the subject of numerous trade rumors at the trade deadline, but is still a Mariner.  Interim GM Lee Pelekoudas wasn’t able to get any value back for him, and President Chuck Armstrong revealed recently that the potential salary dump moves to the Twins and Yankees were nixed from above.

Despite Pelekoudas’ inability to get Washburn in different colors this summer, most of us have been assuming he’d be dealt over the offseason to make room for one of the team’s young starters, but I’m not so sure it’ll happen that way anymore.  With Erik Bedard’s likely absence I would imagine Washburn will get the chance to stick around to help fill the void, unless the organization thinks that Ryan Feierabend can pitch just as well (I don’t). 

Washburn has reportedly been shut down after failing to recover from an abdominal strain.

Miguel Batista: 42 G, 20 GS, 113 IP, 73 K, 76 BB, 6.21 ERA

Batista had the traditional thinkers fooled last season by posting a team best 16 wins.  Win totals aside, Batista was very… okay, but we didn’t get a repeat performance this year.  He struggled early and often, and was arguably the worst starting pitcher in the American League this season, especially once you account for his ridiculously high salary.  He also, like the four other aforementioned starters, struggled with various injuries.

I don’t see Batista getting another chance in the rotation next season, and he will likely remain in the bullpen as the unit’s highest paid player (almost twice as much as JJ Putz).   

Oh, how far we’ve come.