Alex Liddi’s “Top Prospect” Status

by ~ September 11th, 2009 at 12:37 am

Alex Liddi won the California League MVP and was named minor league Player of the Year by the Seattle Mariners this season after hitting .345/.411/.594 with 23 home runs and 104 RBI over 565 plate appearances.  Despite the monster season I declined to place Liddi in the top 25 of my latest prospect rankings, a decision that lead to a fair amount of opposition in the comments thread and on other sites.  Since I posted that list I’ve wavered a bit on other players and would rank them different, but I still wouldn’t have Liddi in my top 25.

As you probably know, Liddi plays his home games at arguably the greatest hitter’s environment in all of affiliated baseball, and his home/road splits reflect that.  At home he’s hitting .382/.467/.691 with 17 of his 23 homers.  There is no denying that Stater Bros. Stadium is carrying Liddi’s numbers, but a popular defense for Liddi’s 2009 campaign is to point to his road numbers.  In fact, a .307/.346/.500 line is impressive on it’s own, but a .312 drop in OPS and .116 drop in isolated slugging (ISO) is alarming, and even more so when you realize that High Desert isn’t a hitter’s oasis in a league of pitcher’s parks.  The California League as a whole is known as a hitter friendly league.

It isn’t just his power production that is being boosted by High Desert either.  Liddi walks 12.1% of the time at home but only 5.7% of the time on the road in an even sample of plate appearances. Without seeing the games or having access to pitch f/x data there is no way to know exactly what is going on, but it would make some sense that pitchers are pitching Liddi differently depending on the ballpark.  Perhaps pitchers are nibbling in High Desert because they know any batted ball has a chance to do some serious damage, but they’re more  willing to go after him on the road where he’s still hitting but not nearly as dangerous.  High Desert teammate Carlos Peguero, a slugger and notorious hacker, has a similar BB% swing for High Desert, walking 10% of the time at home but only 4.9% of the time on the road.

Liddi the California Leaguer is an absolute stud.  That doesn’t make him a top tier big league prospect in my book.  I’ll bump him higher in the rankings when he shows a little more.  I don’t think he’ll hit at AA West Tenn using the same technique.  He has an inconsistently deployed late toe tap, a slow bat and a swing that doesn’t generate a lot of power (real power, not High Desert power).  There are still questions about his position.  The scouting reports haven’t been kind to his third base defense, so it’s imperative for him to tighten things up at the hot corner or find a way to bring his High Desert numbers with him so he can be considered a first base prospect.

I like Liddi and I hope he continues his success in the high minors.  How can you not root for the first Italian born position player in affiliated baseball?  Liddi succeeding in the big leagues would be a huge boost to European baseball.  2010 will be an important year for Liddi’s development.

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  • http://www.marinercentral.com Lonnie

    I’ve been looking for stats from 2007 when Adam Moore played at High Desert to see what his splits were to use as a comparison of a player who went on to succeed at the AA level. I can’t find anything (not trying too hard though) in the normal places.

    Do you have any idea of where this data can be found?

    Lonnie

  • http://proballnw.com Jon Shields

    Fairly comprehensive minor league splits can be found at minorleaguesplits.com and firstinning.com.

  • http://proballnw.com Jon Shields

    While playing for High Desert, Adam Moore only had a .074 OPS drop away, and actually had more power on the road (equal doubles, 8 more homers).

    Moore is a line drive hitter that will hold his own in any environment. Liddi hits more fly balls, and certainly took advantage of the High Desert conditions.

  • MarinerMan6

    I’m pulling for Liddi as well and I think we all need to hold off judgement until he plays in AA West Tenn next year in a neutral environment against legitimate future big league pitchers. It seems AA is always the place that can make or break a prospect and this will be especially true. Having seen a few of his games against Inland Empire down in my neck of the woods he seemed to have good instincts at 3B and pretty decent hands. He also hit the ball hard on the line and I’m hoping he can rack up lots of doubles in AA if he can only hit 10-15 out of the yard next season.

    Also unrelated by Carlos Peguero really sucks. He was light years late on numerous 87 mph fastballs striking out numerous times. I don’t care how much power he has, with his contact rates he looks like a poor man’s Greg Halman (at the plate) and that is not a good thing.

    • http://proballnw.com Jon Shields

      Peguero repeated High Desert this year and his K rate actually got worse. He’s smoking the ball when he makes contact (says the stats), but I have very little faith in him to succeed in the upper levels.

      Have any thoughts on other HD players you may have seen? Would love to here them.

  • MarinerMan6

    Jon,
    I don’t exactly have a huge sample size but I have seen HD play Inland Empire a few times this year. IE is a pretty neutral park so I think it is decent as far as evaluating players.
    One guy I thought was of interest despite him losing a game I saw was Stephen Hensley. He made some guys look silly and on the night I saw him he gave up 2 HRs but both were about 330 ft. shots (one to left and one to right). He gets strikeout (alot–nearly a K/IP), swinging strikes, and a decent share of groundballs. All three of those things are things I look at when evaluating the potential of pitcher long term. I suspect he should possibly join Robles, Pineda, etc. in West Tenn next year. Being that he is a bit older maybe they will push him a bit more than others.
    Joe Dunigan hit a moon shot to RF and has Branyan-esque raw power at the dish. However, defensively I thought he showed subpar range at 1B and awful hands (there was one error given to Liddi that any good 1B should catch). IMO Dunigan fits the DH/1B mold that the M’s already have inundating their system (Carp, LaHair, Nelson, Limonta, etc.). He should see AA next year.
    With all these guys considering the huge park factor in HD I reserve judgement until they hit AA and get 200+ plate appearances. As far as position players if I had to pick one player who would most likely be a Seattle Mariner it would be Gillies. I’m hopeful for guys like Liddi, Dunigan, and Juan Diaz but it is hard to say right now.