40-Man Roster Candidates
by Jon ~ October 31st, 2009 at 6:27 pm
The deadline for big league teams to set their rosters for the Rule 5 draft is coming up in a few weeks. Last November Gaby Hernandez, Marwin Vega, Stephen Kahn and Greg Halman were added to the Seattle Mariners 40-man in order to protect them from being drafted in the Rule 5.
There are a ton of Mariners minor leaguers that will be available in Rule 5, but most will be safe given that teams selecting have to keep each pick on their 25-man roster for the entire season. All but the highest profile position players are safe because of this reason. Pitchers are more easily hidden in middle relief or mop up duty, and are much more likely to be picked. Last year, 16 of the 21 first round picks were pitchers.
Here are a few guys the Mariners may add to their 40-man roster in order to protect:
J.C. Ramirez, 21, was signed in 2005 and is arguably Seattle’s best starting pitching prospect, but he is still 2-3 years away from becoming a big league regular. His numbers in High Desert this season weren’t inspiring, but by most accounts it’s been a productive year for him. 2010 should see him spend most of the season with AA West Tenn.
Michael Pineda, 20, was signed very late in 2005, making it hard to tell if he will be subject to the draft. I’ve sent a few emails out seeking clarification, but until then let’s assume he is. Pineda’s pinpoint control could attract teams, but his recent elbow troubles might scare teams away.
Anthony Varvaro, 25, has blossomed since transitioning to the bullpen and could be up for a bullpen spot in Seattle sooner than later. His Arizona Fall League stint could be seen as a 40-man roster audition.
Ezequiel Carrera, 22, was originally signed by the New York Mets in 2005. Carrera had a great season for AA West Tenn in 2009, maximizing his overall average tools with a great feel for the game and outstanding approach at the plate. Carrera should spend most of 2010 with AAA Tacoma but could see some time with Seattle as an extra outfielder.
Ricky Orta, 24, has turned his career around since being converted into a reliever. Last season with AA West Tenn he threw 41.2 innings of 1.94 ERA ball, striking out 41 while walking 18. He is one of many Mariner relievers on the verge of making their big league debut.
There are other intriguing players that could be picked, but these are the main guys I’m worried about. Is there anyone else you’re worried about losing? You can find the rules here and here.
11 Responses to 40-Man Roster Candidates
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eastcoastmariner
October 31st, 2009 at 8:50 pm
Great post Jon I’m glad you mentioned this. Of the guys on the list, I think Vavaro and possibly Orta and Carerra have a shot to bed added to the 40 man roster. However, a couple of names I think that will find their way onto the 40 man are Hill, Aumont and Fields
eastcoastmariner
October 31st, 2009 at 8:55 pm
even thought their not rule 5 eligible. sorry forgot to mention that
maqman
November 1st, 2009 at 11:32 am
With the DL riders and possibllity of non-tenders there should be even more 40-man roster space available. I trust GMZ to protect those worth it. I wonder, with all that roster room, if he’s thinking of multiple moves in the off-season and if he has some Rule 5 targets of opportunity in mind. Will be glad when the Phils and Yanks settle their differences and some coal gets thrown in the stove.
mikey
November 1st, 2009 at 3:09 pm
Ditto on the great post Jon. I don’t think Pineda needs to be protected. Pineda was signed in Dec 2005. Halman was signed in Nov 2003 and did not need protection until last season.
Alex Liddi was signed in Sept of 2005. Could you find out if he needs to be protected. Thx.
Jon Reply:
November 1st, 2009 at 3:39 pm
Halman’s sign date is listed as June 26, 2004 in the media guide. 04, 05, 06, 07, 08– five seasons and then he’d be up for grabs. The season a player signs counts as a season, but Pineda’s December sign makes it a little confusing.
I don’t think Liddi would get picked. He doesn’t offer big league clubs anything at this point. If you’re going to take a position player that isn’t big league ready offensively (Liddi would be way over his head), they have to be able to be used as a defensive replacement or pinch runner at the very least, and Liddi wouldn’t be used as either.
mikey
November 1st, 2009 at 3:49 pm
Good point on Liddi. I thought I saw that Halman was signed by the Twins on 11/21/03.
Jon Reply:
November 1st, 2009 at 4:10 pm
The Twins originally signed him but he had the contract voided. He played another season in the Netherlands then signed with Seattle the next summer.
mikey
November 1st, 2009 at 4:23 pm
Regardless, I don’t see how Pineda needs to be protected. The 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009 seasons count to 4.
Jon Reply:
November 1st, 2009 at 4:55 pm
The question is whether 2005 counts. They don’t actually have to play any affiliated baseball for it to count. The counting begins the day the contract is signed.
mikey
November 1st, 2009 at 5:56 pm
The rule 5 draft allows the teams to have 5 years of evaluation for players who were 18 when signed. It doesn’t make sense for them to use December to December 31 to count as one of the five years.
Jon Reply:
November 1st, 2009 at 7:55 pm
I agree that it doesn’t make sense for one month to count as a year of evaluation, but where is the cutoff? They count 3-4-5-6 months as one year of evaluation. He’s probably safe, but until I know when the actual cutoff date is I’ll leave him up there.