Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball obviously doesn’t like losing their best players to Major League Baseball, but they’re able to deal with it as long as they get to see those players for a few years (9, I think) in Japan before cashing in in a big way through the posting process (not to mention all of the spectacular busts we send them. Where have you gone, Terrmel Sledge?).  But NPB is not very happy about the prospect of losing their best amateurs to MLB teams before they play as professionals in Japan.

Junichi Tazawa strained the relationship last season, but it is Yusei Kikuchi that could bring it to a boil.

Kikuchi is the top high school pitcher in Japan and could go first overall in NPB’s upcoming amateur draft.  That is, if MLB teams don’t interfere.  Under current MLB rules Japanese amateurs are not subject to the MLB draft, so he can negotiate with big league teams as a free agent.

Should Kikuchi come to the States it will be very interesting to see how it effects the relationship between the world’s top two professional baseball leagues, and any rule changes that come with it.

Let’s move on to how this relates to our Seattle Mariners.  It comes as no surprise that the M’s are one of the many teams set to meet with Kikuchi before NPB’s draft.  They’re going to be “in on” just about every high profile Pacific Rim name, especially ones with youth on their side.

Kikuchi is getting a lot of attention, but I fear the press he’s getting for potentially thwarting NPB could be raising expectations beyond what is fair.

So who is Kikuchi?

Kikuchi is 6′0, slender and throws left handed out of a 3/4 arm slot, crossfiring slightly.  Here’s some of what Patrick of NPB Tracker had to say about him:

I watched Kikuchi pitch as much as I could during this year’s Koshien tournament. He does throw hard, during the games I watched his fastball ranged between about 87 – 96 mph (142-155 kmph). He did get a bit wild when throwing at the higher end of his range and I think he may have a tendency to overthrow at times. Perhaps this contributed to the back strain he suffered during the tournament. This video shows Kikuchi throwing his fastball mostly around 90mph, down in the zone with good command.

In addition to the heater, Kikuchi mixes in a slider and a curveball. He has good movement on both pitches needs to work on commanding them. During Koshien, he would go through stretches where he threw mostly breaking pitches; Goro Shigeno suggested at some point that he may have been trying to polish up his secondary stuff in anticipation of beginning his professional career.

He also has a goofy eephus pitch that I didn’t see him throw at Koshien.

Here is one of the videos linked to above:

I’m not quite sure how I feel about Kikuchi.  He’s definitely a big league prospect, and 18 year old lefties who can touch the upper 90s are rare, but where does he go from there?  Can he sustain that velo?  How much will he fill out?  I haven’t seen the progression of any Japanese pitcher from prospect to established professional, so I have no idea what to expect from Kikuchi.

He’s a guy that every organization would love to have, but is he worthy of being mentioned by fans across the country as a backup plan to Aroldis Chapman?  He’d go #1 in NPB’s draft, but where would he land in MLB’s?

I’d love to hear what you think about this guy.  What kind of signing bonus do you give him?