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Rule 5 Draft Preview

by Rob T. ~ November 23rd, 2008

With the Rule 5 draft only a couple of weeks away I will profile some players that are eligible to be drafted that i think could warrant a pick by the Mariners.

Jordan Brown (Indians 1B)- In 2007 Brown was the 7th ranked Indians prospect and won the Eastern league MVP in 2007 with a line of .333/.421/.484 along with winning the Carolina league MVP in 2006. He is a LH 1B who does not have a lot of power but hits for high average and has very good plate discipline. While he doesn’t hit a ton of homeruns he is a gap hitter and racks up doubles at a good clip. Before this year BA said Brown was the best hitter for average in the system. Brown fell of a bit this year when he was promoted to AAA with a line of .281/.337/.417 and the Indians decided not to put Brown on the 40 man roster. With the M’s lack of talent at the 1B position Brown could conceivably be our starting 1B this year or at the very least it shouldn’t be hard to keep him on the roster all year. Jordan Brown is 24 years old.

Chuck Lofgren (Indians SP)- Here’s another Indians player that might be selected. The reason for this is the Indians had a lot of good prospects they had to protect this year and had to leave some decent players off like Brown and Lofgren. For the last 2 years Lofgren was the #2 ranked prospect in the Indians system. In 2007 he was the 54th ranked prospect in the league and in 2008 he fell down to the 71st prospect. The problem had been since he was promoted to AA and has not sustained the success he had in A ball especially this year where he had a terrible year posting a 5.99 ERA. Scouts now believe Lofgren is probably a bottom of the rotation starter or long reliever at best in the majors but he’s left handed so that a plus and he will probably get drafted by a team hoping they can fix him. Chuck Lofgren is 22 years old.

Eduardo Morlan (Rays RP)- Morlan was involved in the Delmon Young for Matt Garza deal this year and went under the radar in the trade even though he was a good prospect. It came as a suprise that the Rays left him of their 40 man roster. Morlan is a hard throwing RH relief pitcher who strikes out a ton of hitters. In 2007 in High A Morlan struck out 12.61 batters per 9 innings with a 3.15 ERA. There were people who though he could eventually turn into a very good reliever.  After being promoted to AA he had a bit of an off year. His K9 fell to 8.62 and his ERA was 3.64 this year but he’s still got the stuff to succeed and a team like the Mariners can easily find a way to keep him on the roster for the whole year. Call me crazy but i think Morlan can be this year’s version of Joakim Soria, maybe not that good but i think he could be a good major league reliever this year. Eduardo Morlan is 22 years old.

Donald Veal (Cubs SP)- Veal can be put into the same group as Lofgren but he has more upside. In 2007 Veal was 2nd ranked prospect in the Cubs system and the 52nd prospect in the league after being dominant in all levels of A ball. The problem started when he was promoted to AA in 2007 and posted a 4.97 ERA which dropped him to the 6th ranked prospect in the Cubs system for 2008. Veal then repeated AA this year and did not improve posting a 4.58 ERA. One of the main problems for Veal is he walks a ton of batters having 81 this year and 73 walks last year. Veal still possesses a good breaking ball and he strikes out a good amount of batters. There’s a very good chance Veal will be drafted based on his potential. Donald Veal is 23 years old.

5 Responses to Rule 5 Draft Preview

  1. Jon Shields
    Jon Shields

    I’ve been thinking that I want Seattle to take either Veal or Brown.

    I like Veal more though. Veal could be a mid-long reliever and a second lefty in the ‘pen. He misses bats, which is always big for a reliever.

    If he struggles, it’s easier to hide him away compared to Brown, a position player. If Brown struggles it’s just a waste of a roster spot or a waste of a draft pick if he is offered back to Cleveland. If Veal struggles he can still be used to eat innings in blowouts or whatever, or as an early inning lefty-lefty guy.

    On the flip side, guys the Mariners stand to lose in the Rule V are P Andy Baldwin, SS Oswaldo Navarro, P Robert Rohrbaugh, and 1B Marshall Hubbard.

    None would be big losses, but Hubbard is comparable to Jordan Brown (minus the AAA experience), and Rohrbaugh and Baldwin represent a large chunk of our near-MLB ready starting depth. I think Rohrbaugh is the most likely to be selected.

  2. Jon Shields
    Jon Shields

    Also, Seattle will have 3 picks in the Rule 5 if the 40-man roster remains at 37 until then, or at least that’s how I understand it. Teams continue picking until their 40-man is full if they want.

  3. Rob T.
    Rob T.

    Thats true but it’s rare for a team to take 2 players and attempt to keep them on the roster all year and you still need 40 man roster spots open for signing free agents and by the time the M’s are even up to make their 2nd pick there won’t be any decent prospects left unless they trade for someone.

  4. Jon Shields
    Jon Shields

    Anyone be interested in Kei Igawa?

    I say that if he’s on the board when Seattle makes their 2nd pick they should consider him. If it doesn’t work out he can always be offered back and it costs Seattle practically nothing. If he does work out, Seattle gets a lefty mid-back of the rotation guy at $4M per season (aka less than what Silva, Batista, Washburn and possibly Felix will be making).

    There’s no room for him, so maybe it isn’t much of an idea at all, but what could it hurt to just bring him into Spring Training?

  5. Jon Shields
    Jon Shields

    ^I’ve changed my mind on this already. Probably wouldn’t be worth the effort.

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