The Seattle Mariners have more than enough starting pitchers to fill their rotation in 2010, but not necessarily the right kind.  Felix Hernandez slots in as the staff ace, but after that Seattle is looking at a lot of question marks.

Ian Snell and Brandon Morrow both have great stuff and one of them could fill the second slot in the rotation if everything started coming together, but until they show some consistency they’re back of the rotation arms.  Ryan Rowland-Smith is a rock solid #4, or perhaps a 3/4 tweener.  Anyone else on the books is a #5 at best.

If Seattle could bring in a 1a or 2 it would really help set up the rotation.

I’ve spent far too many words exploring the possibility of John Lackey already, so there is really no need to discuss him further at this point.  Let’s move on to the market’s next most eligible bachelor.

Rich Harden, RH

Harden is kind of like the Nick Johnson of pitching in that he’s hit the DL at least once every single season except for one.  That is, if Nick Johnson was a superstar rather than merely a very good player.

Harden is a very intriguing pitcher these days.  He’s ditched his once famed splitter and other breaking pitches in an attempt to stay healthy, but is still dominating with a fastball/changeup combo that he throws at a 60/40 split .  Of pitchers with at least 140 IP, Harden led all of baseball with 10.91 K/9.  The only major change in Harden’s profile is that he’s gone from being a groundball pitcher to one of the flyball variety.  That would help explain his uninspiring 4.09 ERA, as the Chicago Cubs ran out the worst outfield defense in the National League by UZR.

I’ve been told that Harden doesn’t wish to return to the Cubs because of that atrocious outfield defense (although recent reports say otherwise).  I’ve also been told that Harden grew up a Mariners fan.  I’m not going to take the time to Google a verification for either, but both make some sense.  Harden is a sabermetrically savvy guy and also has two eyeballs, so he has to know how bad the Cubs outfield defense was.  I certainly wouldn’t want to pitch in front of them.  Harden is also a NW guy so it would make some sense that he’s a Mariner fan.  If he wants to play for his hometown team and in front of a great outfield defense, Seattle is the place for him.  Pair that with several reports stating mutual interest and it seems that there is a good chance Harden is a Mariner in 2010.

As a Mariner, Harden would basically be 2009 Erik Bedard but with (hopefully) more starts.  He’ll be great when he’s on the hill, but don’t expect him to go deep into ballgames and expect some rotation shuffling from time to time in order to keep him feeling good.

So how much does a guy who is only good for 25 starts per year (at most) command?  I haven’t seen any estimates lately, but I would guess that a 1-2 year deal at around $7-9M per is reasonable, with option years and incentives packages possible.  Even that may seem like a lot to guarantee to a guy that is a virtual lock to spend some time on the DL, but if he can get you even 20 starts he’ll likely be worth it.

I’ve always been a huge Rich Harden fan and would be very excited to see him land with Seattle.  Harden is only 27 year old, by the way.