Quick Thoughts on John Lackey

by ~ November 16th, 2009 at 11:42 pm

  • Lackey doesn’t have an overpowering fastball or head turning secondary pitches, but he puts up great numbers year after year by pounding the zone like Jarrod Washburn and missing bats like Erik Bedard.
  • Lackey is a great fit (for any team) in a vacuum.  For Seattle he’d be the second ace Erik Bedard was supposed to be, but not quite as risky health-wise.
  • $100M “estimates” are completely bunk.  There have only been five pitchers in MLB history to get $100M and none can be considered clear cut successes.  There is no way Lackey becomes the sixth.
  • Many have suggested that Lackey is looking for “A.J. Burnett money,” or about 5 years and $80M.  It’s possible, but most likely at the high end of what can be considered realistic.
  • The market for Lackey doesn’t appear particularly deep.  The Mariners and Mets are in there, the Brewers could be kicking the tires but I don’t see them paying top dollar for a starter, the Angels will be looking to bring their ace back but there has been some talk that he isn’t eager to return (though I’m not sure how accurate those rumors are– probably not very), and the Red Sox and Yankees could jump in at any time but neither seems to have an obvious need.  Missing anyone?
  • I think the most Lackey gets from a non-Yankee team will be in the 5 years/$70M range, but I genuinely think 4 years/$50-60M has a chance get it done in this market, which would shock many.
  • Given Lackey’s health history (though the lack of ligament damage is encouraging) and the poor success rate of big time starting pitching contracts, I (and I’ll assume several teams) would be weary of inking Lackey at 5 years and ~$15M per.  4 years at $12-13M is less scary, but still risky.
  • For Seattle, $12-15M for Lackey plus arbitration raises to several and a possible extension for Felix leaves little to spend on other areas of need this season.  At least 1B/DH guys should come cheap.

Why quick thoughts?  Because I’ve been trying to write this post for the better part of a week but kept going off on tangents regarding market trends all kinds of other things.  I figured it would be better to keep it short and sweet and let you guys discuss.  Have at it!

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  • Mekias

    I think I read somewhere (maybe on MLB trade rumors) that Lackey was offered 72 million by the Angels earlier this year. I assume that was 5 years. I wonder if that deal is still on the table.

    Another thing occurred to me. Could Seattle be trying to drive up the price on Lackey (and maybe Vlad too) so that either the Angels lose them or have to overpay? They’re both good players but that’s probably a risky game to play.

    I would love to have Lackey but it might indicate that we want a fall back plan in case Felix decides to bolt. If we do happen to then resign Felix, that’s a LOT of money tied up in two pitchers. While the free agent market for hitters this year isn’t very good, I want some financial flexibility in case that big bopper comes along in the future.

    That being said, it’s always going to be easier to lure a pitcher to Safeco than it is to bring in a great hitter. Jack Z may need to keep looking at trades and in-grown talent to fill our starting lineup.

  • PrimeTimeG

    If Lackey turned down 72 for 5 years then forget it. A four year $48 million deal is about as high as I would bid for him. He’s 31 and hasn’t reached 200IP in two straight seasons. If some team offers him 5 years then we should turn our attention elsewhere.

  • eastcoastmariner

    Larue reported earlier today that he turned down a 5 year $72 million deal from the Angels. I dont like giving Lackey anything more than 4 years $60 million but I highly doubt that is going to get it done

  • issymicen

    John- What would it look like to bring Vlad for 2 years if everything else fails. I know he is old. but if need a little extra pop in the line up if all else fails.

    • http://proballnw.com Jon

      If everything else fails, definitely, but he’s not going to be the first choice. I do feel like he’s going to be one of the best bargains this offseason.

      • issymicen

        I agree not the first choice…. I could see him and Branyan back to back tho.

        Is there anything on Felix extension as of late?

        Lackey turned down 14.4 mil a year from LAA? wow. It looks like Lackey is wanting about 5 years at 16.5-18.0 mil a year (according to Eastcoastmariner post). I would go 4/65.

  • MarinerMan6

    Vlad = RH version of Griffey with slightly more power, much less plate discipline, and even more injury prone. The M’s will already have to have one wheelchair for Jr., why sign another dude who needs one as well?

    Between Nick Johnson, Carlos Delgado, and Russell Branyan we should be able to find a nice 1B/DH combo.

    With regards to Lackey, no way I go to over 4 years. Pitchers are risks and Lackey was just hurt this past year, to be honest I would maybe max out at 3 yrs and $36 million. Let’s get Felix signed long-term first.

    • http://proballnw.com Jon

      “The M’s will already have to have one wheelchair for Jr., why sign another dude who needs one as well?”

      Then why are you bringing up Nick Johnson?

      • MarinerMan6

        Because he is actually still good…and Nick Johnson was healthy last year. Griffey healthy is still 30 lbs overweight (how come no one discusses his obvious weight problem probably contributing to his knee problems–can’t we get the guy on an offseason exercise and lifting regimen???) and three years past being useful. Nick Johnson when healthy can play 1B, Griffey when healthy can play nowhere. Nick Johnson is still a viable 1B/DH candidate for any MLB team, Griffey is a retired player who has guilted an organization into a $2 million contract for fear of public backlash by denying him what he wants.

        • http://proballnw.com Jon

          I’d most likely take Johnson over Vlad as well (assuming there isn’t a huge discrepancy in price), but I think you’re slightly overrating Johnson and hugely underrating Vlad. Vlad is “still good” as well. He was playing hurt most of last season and still put up a wOBA that would have been 4th best on the M’s last season.

          • StandinPat

            And Johnson’s would have been 1st…..

            • http://proballnw.com Jon

              Johnson was healthy. (Also, that should be 3rd, not 4th)

              I’m not trying to knock Johnson, I’m just saying Vlad can still get it done when he’s feeling good. He put up some monster numbers last season when he wasn’t hurting. And I’m not sure Johnson is a better bet to stay on the field in 2010 anyway.

              This wasn’t supposed be about comparing the two offensively. My original beef was about MarinerMan6 dismissing Vlad because of his recent injuries but being completely okay with Johnson, who is obviously notorious for the amount of time he spends on the DL. He’s avoided the DL exactly once in his entire career (2006).

  • StandinPat

    Pretty much every 1B/DH Free Agent option out there is being held together with duct tape and super glue. The benefit I’d give to guys like Johnson and Delgado is that at least they can hold down 1B, hopefully splitting time with Branyan(Pretty sure he’ll re-sign), keeping both players reasonably healthy.

    • http://proballnw.com Jon

      That is definitely the ideal situation.

  • MarinerMan6

    The big key here is that Vlad is right handed so any power he has over Johnson (which is substantial) is significantly negated in cavernous Safeco field. Since Vlad is basically Jose Lopez-esque is his hitting value (all slugging no OBP–the guy ran a 44.5% O-Swing %) currently Johnson wins out easily. Couple the fact that Vlad had a career low in HR/FB% by nearly 5% and you put him in Safeco and you get Adrian Beltre minus the awesome defense. Nick Johnson while no gold glove can at least play passable 1B defense.

    Given the fact 81 games are played in Safeco Field the M’s should only be looking at OBP heavy LH handed bats, those with power would be nice. If I had to rate our 1B/DH options I would go:

    1. Nick Johnson
    2. Russ Branyan
    3. Carlos Delgado
    4. Jim Thome
    5. Everyone else

    I think ideally a Nick Johnson/Russ Branyan combo at 1B/DH could allow both of them to rest weary legs by DHing some and if both are healthy this offense becomes about 10x better than last year. That is lots of ifs but that is the nature of buying high risk players with value.

  • MarinerMan6

    I forgot Hideki Matsui on the list as well, right with Thome.