John Smoltz

The rumor: “The Cardinals, Dodgers, Mets and Mariners are among the teams that have expressed preliminary interest in free-agent right-hander John Smoltz, according to a major-league source.”

“Preliminary interest” doesn’t mean much, and it’s hard to believe a the 43 year old future Hall of Famer is eager to play for an American League team way out west who finished in 3rd place last season, so…

Smoltz doesn’t offer the upside of a Rich Harden but he is probably better than anyone else currently in the Mariner rotation not dubbed el Rey.  The ugly Boston numbers scared some people, but last season Smoltz was basically the same guy he’s been since returning to the rotation in 2005, with the exception of a few fewer grounders and more fly balls.

I’d be alright with Seattle picking him up on a deal similar to the one Boston signed him to last offseason (1/$5.5M), but am not holding my breath.

Jack Cust

The rumor: “The cost of acquiring Cust, who has played 215 games in the outfield and 234 games at DH in his career, should be low — perhaps a Single-A prospect. Seattle may be the most likely destination, which would reunite Cust with Don Wakamatsu, the Mariners’ manager, who previously worked as Oakland’s bench coach.”

Cust could likely be had in a trade for very little or picked up as a free agent if Oakland non-tenders him.  Since his breakout season with the A’s in 2007 Cust has been swinging more and more, walking less and less and has seen fewer of his fly balls turn into home runs.  That isn’t to say his raw power has diminished at age 30, as his average home run distance in 2009 was actually higher than it has been the past two seasons with Oakland.

Cust is still more selective than many hitters, but if he could get back to previous levels you have to think he’d be able to get back to being a productive power hitter again.  That said, Cust may not be the greatest fit for Seattle.  For one, he is without a defensive position.  He’d (hopefully) be a strict DH after producing an ugly -20.4 UZR/150 throughout his career as an outfielder.  Cust hasn’t played but a few innings in the minor leagues at 1B.  Beyond the lack of versatility, Cust could be suppressed by Safeco Field despite being a lefty.  Cust’s home run spray charts look very similar to Russell Branyan’s in that he avoids the lines and hits them out to all fields, but he just doesn’t hit them as far.  Branyan’s average 2009 homer averaged a whopping 415 feet, while Cust average just 403 feet.  Cust would see a ton of homers die in the power alley’s as a Mariner.

The Don Wakamatsu/Ty Van Burkleo connection could increase Cust’s chances of landing in Seattle, but I doubt he’ll be a priority for Seattle.  He’s probably a guy they’ll keep on the backburner in case things fall through with their primary targets.

Nick Johnson

The rumor: “Add free agent Nick Johnson to the list of first basemen drawing interest from the Mariners.”

The darling of the Mariner blogosphere saberists, I’m sure there are many fans out there rejoicing just at the sight of seeing Johnson’s name connected to Seattle.  I like Johnson too, but I don’t exactly see him as the Second Coming.

Johnson you should know by now.  He hits for a decent average, draws a ton of walks, power has slowly gone the way of the buffalo, plays passing defense and he’s hit the disabled list in every single season except for 20o2.  At 31 years old, he’s a guy most teams would want and is arguably the 1B cream of the 2009-2010 free agent crop, but is as risky as they come.  I’d enjoy having Johnson, but I wonder if Carlos Delgado might be a better value while coming up with similar production.  Both are risky.