The 12 player trade that went down on Wednesday evening is an amazing thing to me, in that most of the savvy fans feel like their teams made a decent trade.  Obviously things can change once the games are played, but for now most Mariner fans are excited to have a legitimate center field defender, added farm depth, as well as a couple other role players that could prove valuable.  The Mets fans feel like they were able to overhaul their bullpen without giving up anything they’ll particularly miss.  The Indians fans are happy because they were able to solidify their bullpen, improve their second base depth, and clear a spot in the outfield so that Shin-Soo Choo and Ben Francisco can play full time.  Obviously, there are those that disagree, but generally everyone is happy.

Perhaps this is how most trades work, but I’ve simply been on the wrong end of Bill Bavasi and Woody Woodward trades.

I am excited for the acquisition of Gutierrez, and I can’t wait to see him out on the field in 2009.  I’ve already mentioned how great his defense is, citing various defensive metrics to describe how amazing he is and how he’s going to be Seattle best defensive outfielder since Mike Cameron left us, but I think Jeff Sullivan at Lookout Landing summed it best:

he’s one of the best defensive outfielders on the planet. PMR likes him. UZR loves him. Plus/minus had sex with him on Adam Everett’s coffee table. Franklin Gutierrez has played 284 games in the Major Leagues, and in pretty much every single one of them he has provided extraordinary defense.

(If you don’t get the Everett reference, see here)

Gutierrez is going to be great in center field.  He’ll be such an asset that even if he shows zero improvement at the plate he’ll still be one of the more valuable position players that we have.  However, if he can start hitting a bit more then he’ll become the Adrian Beltre of the outfield, minus the paycheck.

After being called a breakout candidate by many last Spring Training, Gutierrez struggled mightily, batting just .210 and sporting an embarrassing .586 OPS at the trading deadline.   Undoubtedly motivated by the strong performances by Francisco and Choo, and the possibility of losing additional playing time, Gutierrez turned it up a notch from then until the end of the season, hitting a solid .313/.389/.476 including half his home runs and doubles over his final 47 games.

Over the same span, the only Mariner to outperform Gutierrez offensively was Raul Ibanez, who was on an absolute tear down the stretch.  That said, Ibanez can’t exactly claim to have the defensive impact that Gutierrez has.  It’s feasible that from August 1st until the end of the season Gutierrez was more valuable than any Seattle Mariners position player.  Cases can be made for Ibanez and Beltre, but it’s still saying something about the finish that Gutierrez had.

If that last third of the season was any indication of what kind of offensive upside Gutierrez is storing, Seattle may gotten the best player in the deal by a large margin. Even if he hits closer to his more realistic 2008 ZIPs projection of .268/.332/.422, he’s still an above average center fielder on both sides of the ball.

The important thing to remember is that Gutierrez isn’t just a defensive wizard.  People look at his 2008 line of .248/.307/.383 and think he’s an all-defense, no-offense player, but those overall numbers were destroyed by the tough start.  He hit just .210/.257/.329 over his first 87 games.  There’s no way that this guy is that bad.  He was heralded as a potential 5-tool player as a prospect.  So far, only the defensive tools have consistently shown themselves at the MLB level, but you should remember that he hasn’t yet entered into his physical prime, nor has he been given the opportunity to log a full season’s worth of plate appearances.  He topped out at 319 last season, but should head up to the plate almost twice as many times in 2009.  I’ve talked to some Cleveland Indians bloggers and fans and most believe that Gutierrez can explode if he gets consistent playing time and his natural defensive position back.  That’s exactly what Seattle is going to do for him.

While he struggled in 2008 compared to 2006 and 2007, there are reasons to believe that he’s on the verge of breaking out.  This past season he started evening up his lefty/righty splits, he brought his strikeout percentage way down, bumped his line drive percentage up a bit, became more selective at the plate and made better contact when he swung.  He is improving aspects of his game, and if he puts them all together it could be a beautiful sight.

For 2009, Bill James projects a .271/.329/.428 line for Gutierrez over 398 plate appearances, Marcel has him at .264/.321/.414 over 450, and ZIPs predicts .258/.321/.400 over 411.

I think that Gutierrez will smoke the ZIPs projection, and at very least fall somewhere between Bill James and Marcel, assuming he plays everyday, registering between 550 and 600 plate appearances.  He could do a lot more.  Last season he could have hit 15 homers despite his struggles had he gotten regular playing time.  He can be a 20 homer threat as early as next year.

Not very many people are talking about this guys offense, but I think we’re going to have a very special player reveal himself over the next couple seasons.