Update, 7:50 pm: It would appear that I was duped on this one.

I haven’t found anything in the ESPN Radio archive and no one in the biz seems to know anything about this.  I’m still waiting for an email reply from Gammons, but for now I’m willing to say that this is a fake rumor.

My apologies for failing to confirm the report before passing it along.

2:19 am: I’m a bit late on this one, but apparently Peter Gammons was on ESPN Radio Christmas morning reporting that the New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners have been in trade talks regarding Yankee DH/LF Hideki Matsui and Mariner LHSP Erik Bedard.  Since this was on radio there is no “official” link, but it has become a hot topic across the internet so I’ll assume that Gammons did indeed report this.

Almost two months ago there was a rumor published by Yahoo’s Tim Brown that had Seattle potentially ending up with Matsui in a three team trade, though Ryan Rowland-Smith supposedly the the LHSP in Seattle’s outbox.  Perhaps Seattle is genuinely interested in Matsui?  Or maybe the Yankees are just aggressively shopping him to any team that might have a fit?

Either way, let’s take a look.

Both can be very good players when healthy, but Bedard is a more valuable ballplayer when he stays on the field.  However, Seattle’s needs could allow such a trade make to sense on a few levels.  First, they need to free up room in the starting rotation to avoid hurting the futures of Rowland-Smith and Brandon Morrow; check.  Second, they need another power bat and OBP guy in the lineup, preferably from the left side; check.

Let me say that trading away a higher level of value to fill a need is typically a very bad idea that often results in some of the worst trades in the sport (see: Varitek, Lowe for Slocumb, or any other deal involving a veteran reliever), but in this case I don’t see a scenario in which Seattle would be hurt beyond 2009 if the trade went down as a flop, considering that each player is a free agent after the season.

Beyond trading for need, such a deal only makes any sense under certain circumstances.

1.) Matsui’s compensation for dropping his no-trade clause cannot include any sort of extension or option years.  We definitely would not want him beyond 2009.

2.)  Matsui has to be the DH and not the left fielder. The various defensive metrics are all over the place when it comes to Matsui, but that only means he is between below average and Raul Ibanez-esque.  When you take into account his noodle arm, he is definitely a liability out there, and not something that we need.

He’s bad enough that his poor defense nearly negates his offense, and Seattle would get more value from of the position by fielding Endy Chavez out there.  No joke; when defense is factored in, Chavez would produce more wins than Matsui and costs about $15M less.

Having him DH would also help keep healthier, which is obviously one of the keys to making a trade such as this one successful.  The problem with that is that the organization seems to be hinting that they’re going to use the DH spot for either Kenji Johjima or Jeff Clement; whoever isn’t catching.  It seems to me that GM Jack Zduriencik would rather get a left fielder than a DH.

One downside to having him DH is that he would cut into Jeff Clement’s playing time.

3.) Seattle needs to get something worthwhile back along with Matsui (beyond salary relief).  It’s not that Bedard’s value is so high right now, it’s that it’s no secret that the Yankees are looking to get Matsui out of their outfield/DH logjam and are almost certainly willing to dump him for nothing.  Bedard is not nothing, even after a severe injury.  If they were looking to simply dump Matsui on us, they’d be looking for Jarrod Washburn or Miguel Batista in return.  Since it’s Bedard’s name coming up, they’re going to have to up their offer.

If all three of those terms are met, then a trade might make some sense.

One aspect to think about is that Matsui could give Seattle a bit of a revenue boost.  Matsui is bigger than Ichiro in Japan, so at least a small uptick in retail and ticket sales could be expected thanks to Seattle’s large Japanese population, not to mention endorsement deals and possibly expanded media contracts overseas.

When healthy, Matsui gives Seattle a boost in the middle of the order, and would be a good fit in the 3-hole. His career slash line sits at .295/.371/.478, and he seems likely to produce similar numbers in 2009 if healthy. The problem is that he’s got two bad knees and will turn 35 years old next season.

That said, the next question you have to ask yourself is, “Who is more likely to stay on the field, Bedard or Matsui?” I have no idea, but I’m inclined to think that Matsui is a safer bet.  I like to think that Bedard will come back strong, but I’m just not as optimistic as everyone else seems to be.  Sure, the injury wasn’t as bad as originally reported, but it was still bad.  Does he really come back and start 30+ games?  I find that hard to believe, but I hope I’m wrong (should he remain in Seattle).

However, if the team truly thinks Bedard is going to stay healthy, he should probably be kept.  With Bedard around, Seattle’s rotation is very solid and goes in a nice 1-2-3-4-5 sequence.   With him out of the picture, you replace a good top of the rotation starter with another bottom of the rotation guy, which is obviously a significant downgrade.  Of course, keeping Bedard (and failing to move anyone else) leaves you with RRS and/or Morrow getting banished to the bullpen.

If we’re talking Yankee outfielders, I would obviously rather have Nick Swisher or even Xavier Nady, and if we’re talking Mariner pitchers I would rather shed Washburn or Batista.  This trade rumor has enough pros and cons to make you go in circles, and enough to make me not care very much either way (assuming all the above parameters are met), because after the 2009 season it probably won’t matter much anyway.

For now I’m saying “no thanks” pending news of any other players involved, because I think Seattle could get Matsui for a less if they really wanted him.

I’ll look into it further (and earlier in the evening) if any more details surface.

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