Mariners-Yankees Talking Trade?
by Jon ~ December 29th, 2008 at 2:12 am
Update, 7:50 pm: It would appear that I was duped on this one.
I haven’t found anything in the ESPN Radio archive and no one in the biz seems to know anything about this. I’m still waiting for an email reply from Gammons, but for now I’m willing to say that this is a fake rumor.
My apologies for failing to confirm the report before passing it along.
2:19 am: I’m a bit late on this one, but apparently Peter Gammons was on ESPN Radio Christmas morning reporting that the New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners have been in trade talks regarding Yankee DH/LF Hideki Matsui and Mariner LHSP Erik Bedard. Since this was on radio there is no “official” link, but it has become a hot topic across the internet so I’ll assume that Gammons did indeed report this.
Almost two months ago there was a rumor published by Yahoo’s Tim Brown that had Seattle potentially ending up with Matsui in a three team trade, though Ryan Rowland-Smith supposedly the the LHSP in Seattle’s outbox. Perhaps Seattle is genuinely interested in Matsui? Or maybe the Yankees are just aggressively shopping him to any team that might have a fit?
Either way, let’s take a look.
Both can be very good players when healthy, but Bedard is a more valuable ballplayer when he stays on the field. However, Seattle’s needs could allow such a trade make to sense on a few levels. First, they need to free up room in the starting rotation to avoid hurting the futures of Rowland-Smith and Brandon Morrow; check. Second, they need another power bat and OBP guy in the lineup, preferably from the left side; check.
Let me say that trading away a higher level of value to fill a need is typically a very bad idea that often results in some of the worst trades in the sport (see: Varitek, Lowe for Slocumb, or any other deal involving a veteran reliever), but in this case I don’t see a scenario in which Seattle would be hurt beyond 2009 if the trade went down as a flop, considering that each player is a free agent after the season.
Beyond trading for need, such a deal only makes any sense under certain circumstances.
1.) Matsui’s compensation for dropping his no-trade clause cannot include any sort of extension or option years. We definitely would not want him beyond 2009.
2.) Matsui has to be the DH and not the left fielder. The various defensive metrics are all over the place when it comes to Matsui, but that only means he is between below average and Raul Ibanez-esque. When you take into account his noodle arm, he is definitely a liability out there, and not something that we need.
He’s bad enough that his poor defense nearly negates his offense, and Seattle would get more value from of the position by fielding Endy Chavez out there. No joke; when defense is factored in, Chavez would produce more wins than Matsui and costs about $15M less.
Having him DH would also help keep healthier, which is obviously one of the keys to making a trade such as this one successful. The problem with that is that the organization seems to be hinting that they’re going to use the DH spot for either Kenji Johjima or Jeff Clement; whoever isn’t catching. It seems to me that GM Jack Zduriencik would rather get a left fielder than a DH.
One downside to having him DH is that he would cut into Jeff Clement’s playing time.
3.) Seattle needs to get something worthwhile back along with Matsui (beyond salary relief). It’s not that Bedard’s value is so high right now, it’s that it’s no secret that the Yankees are looking to get Matsui out of their outfield/DH logjam and are almost certainly willing to dump him for nothing. Bedard is not nothing, even after a severe injury. If they were looking to simply dump Matsui on us, they’d be looking for Jarrod Washburn or Miguel Batista in return. Since it’s Bedard’s name coming up, they’re going to have to up their offer.
If all three of those terms are met, then a trade might make some sense.
One aspect to think about is that Matsui could give Seattle a bit of a revenue boost. Matsui is bigger than Ichiro in Japan, so at least a small uptick in retail and ticket sales could be expected thanks to Seattle’s large Japanese population, not to mention endorsement deals and possibly expanded media contracts overseas.
When healthy, Matsui gives Seattle a boost in the middle of the order, and would be a good fit in the 3-hole. His career slash line sits at .295/.371/.478, and he seems likely to produce similar numbers in 2009 if healthy. The problem is that he’s got two bad knees and will turn 35 years old next season.
That said, the next question you have to ask yourself is, “Who is more likely to stay on the field, Bedard or Matsui?” I have no idea, but I’m inclined to think that Matsui is a safer bet. I like to think that Bedard will come back strong, but I’m just not as optimistic as everyone else seems to be. Sure, the injury wasn’t as bad as originally reported, but it was still bad. Does he really come back and start 30+ games? I find that hard to believe, but I hope I’m wrong (should he remain in Seattle).
However, if the team truly thinks Bedard is going to stay healthy, he should probably be kept. With Bedard around, Seattle’s rotation is very solid and goes in a nice 1-2-3-4-5 sequence. With him out of the picture, you replace a good top of the rotation starter with another bottom of the rotation guy, which is obviously a significant downgrade. Of course, keeping Bedard (and failing to move anyone else) leaves you with RRS and/or Morrow getting banished to the bullpen.
If we’re talking Yankee outfielders, I would obviously rather have Nick Swisher or even Xavier Nady, and if we’re talking Mariner pitchers I would rather shed Washburn or Batista. This trade rumor has enough pros and cons to make you go in circles, and enough to make me not care very much either way (assuming all the above parameters are met), because after the 2009 season it probably won’t matter much anyway.
For now I’m saying “no thanks” pending news of any other players involved, because I think Seattle could get Matsui for a less if they really wanted him.
I’ll look into it further (and earlier in the evening) if any more details surface.
15 Responses to Mariners-Yankees Talking Trade?
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Mary Stewart
December 29th, 2008 at 4:52 am
The idea of this trade is ridiculous. Matsui’s defense and baserunning is already not a MLB level, while Bedard still has a potential ability as a ace pitcher. Their salary gap is also big. (Matsui>Bedard)
Adding that, Matsui’s popularity rapidly decreased since he turned down the request to join the Japan’s national team of WBC in 2006 from manager Sadaharu Oh. Only because Matsui had been a member of Yomiuri Giants, the most popular pro-baseball team in Japan, he frequently showed up on newspaper. But as a real popularity of the country, Ichiro far exceeds Matsui. You cannot bring money by Matsui any longer.
Another point is that Matsui (instead of money) brings a troop of his countrymen sportwriters into a clubhouse, which will spoil the chemistry of clubhouse, too. (Ichiro never allowed sportwriters stay long around him in a clubhouse.)
Captain Lars
December 29th, 2008 at 9:45 am
This trade doesn’t make any sense whatsoever. Bedard’s trade value is at it’s lowest point right now as evidenced by what the Yankees are offering. Although we don’t know if Bedard will be healthy next season or not I think the chances of that are fairly good. If he has a good first half he’d be worth way more at the trade deadline to some playoff contender than Matsui. There are plenty of players out there that have similar potential for the 2009 season as Matsui that we could get for far less (such as Griffey). Also, with both Ichiro and and Johjima on the roster how much more appeal do we need to attract Japanese fans? I’d rather give Bedard a chance to show he’s healthy and valuable and take the opportunity to take a better look at someone like Balentien or Morse to see if they should be figured into our future roster. We’re not likely to contend in 2009 anyway so what good is a 35 year old, aging DH/part time LF going to do for us, especially if he’s around for just one year. This is the kind of trade a contender makes to get them over the hump, not a trade for a team that’s rebuilding.
ernier
December 29th, 2008 at 10:15 am
The only way I’d do a trade of Bedard for Matsui is if the Yankees also included a young starter like Ian Kennedy or Philip Huges. Bedard’s upside is obviously much greater than Matsui and now that the Yankees have signed CC and AJ they might be willing to move one of thier young starters. Otherwise if the M’s trade Bedard they should get back Nick Swisher or Xavier Nady, although I know the Yankees would rather move Matsui so they can have Posada play a lot at DH. I wonder if the Yankees would do a Matsui for Johjima trade, that would make more sense for both teams since the Yankees need another catcher and the M’s need a lefty DH.
Digger
December 29th, 2008 at 10:50 am
There’s no way the Yankees want Bedard. Ichiro maybe. Lopez maybe. But probably (more) frivolous conjecture by Gammons.
Jon Shields
December 29th, 2008 at 11:31 am
RE: Matsui vs. Ichiro, I think I read a bunch of stuff that talked about how Matsui received much more coverage while in Japan and since coming over to the states, and I must have confused that with popularity. Thinking about it now, it makes sense that the slugger on the biggest team (Japan’s version of the Yankees, perhaps) would get more press than someone else, but that doesn’t mean the overall popularity is there (thinking A-Rod).
Anyways.. here’s to hoping this truly isn’t a potential one-for-one.
Dustin Shires
December 29th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
Screw Matsui. I’d be asking for Swisher…
ernier
December 29th, 2008 at 2:26 pm
Swisher would be a very nice pickup because of his versatility. He could play 1B or LF and still allow us to pick up another lefty bat like Bradley, Dunn or Jr. or we could just go with Vlady/Chavez in LF and see if Vlady has figured out how to hit a big league curve.
Jon Shields
December 29th, 2008 at 2:40 pm
^or, alternatively, lay off a big league curve.
I don’t believe Bradley is an option at this point. I think he’s going to be a Cub or Ray. Could be a nice surprise, though.. never know.
Dunn is still on Seattle’s radar.
Considering how cheap the Yankees got Swisher and how poorly he played last year, he could be an nice bargain pickup if they’re willing to move him. Otherwise they’re going to be playing him severely out of position in CF (though they don’t seem to care much about defense, anyway).
The Kid
December 29th, 2008 at 3:41 pm
No No NO! This would be a horrible move. End of discussion.
The Kid
December 29th, 2008 at 3:44 pm
^ meaning Matsui for Bedard. We gave up too much for Bedard, we did not get enough in return for Putz, and this would not be anywhere near enough to get for Bedard. If we are rebuilding, we should trade Ichiro and Bedard to get people the same age and talent level as Morrow and Lopez and Gutierrez. That is how to rebuild, although I feel if we make a few worth while moves we can win now with some of the players we have now. Go one way or the other.
banton
December 29th, 2008 at 6:20 pm
First off, this would be a TERRIBLE trade. As I have said many times here, a newly-healthy, revitalized Bedard will be a sold # 2 for us this year; mark my words. If anything, we can trade him at the deadline. So many seem to have given up on him-no one feels worse about his performance last year than he does.
Beltre has been a bargain if you look at his relationship to replacement value, and he needs to stay, also till the trade deadline.
Our best option was to move Jo to Boston as a back-up catcher. Trust me, Z was doing what he could.
Let Z do his job; he is the first one in a long time to know talent and how to exploit it. The last thing we need is an expensive hired gun just for the sake of power. Been there-done that. And I don’t believe that you buy a DH or a closer; we have them, and situation will take care of itself.
We have a new first baseman, and he should do fine, especially in a LH/RH platoon with Morse.
If we can move YuBet or Lopez, we should. Also Bal.
We are stuck with Batista and Silva. Short of having them ride the pines, they will need innings, but not at the expense of our rotation.
Heilman is nothing but trade bait, and will be gone by the end of ST. So will Washburn. Someone will want either or both. We should make a closer out of Lowe, since he wants the job.
And, for the love of God, please stop saying that Junior should return as a DH. We will either sell tickets or we won’t. This club needs time to gel and refresh. In all likelihood, we will compete this year; that should be enough. Let’s build for the future.
Bill
section331
December 29th, 2008 at 9:09 pm
Eh, no worries – a bunch of other people were talking about it, too. I’ve heard crazier things…
ernier
December 30th, 2008 at 9:21 am
I remember hearing somthing about this trade also and I remember RRS name being mentioned . Anyway, it’s still fun to speculate and get people going about a trade or bringing back Jr. in this slow moving off season.
Slurve
December 30th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
Meh everybody in the Yankees fan blog believes Matsui is better than Bedard and we should offer more for him…
Jon Shields
December 30th, 2008 at 4:34 pm
That is ridiculous. Going on pure value/talent and assuming full health, Bedard is way better than Matsui.
Now, it wouldn’t be crazy to think that Matsui may be less of a health risk, but there is no way of truly knowing.